• Top 2 – No. 6 Providence 
• Top 3 – No. 1 Observer 
• Top 4 – No. 7 Azazel 

Chris Waller is no stranger to Derby success, and PROVIDENCE (12) gives him a genuine shot at adding a fourth VRC Derby trophy to the cabinet this Saturday. The Wootton Bassett colt turned heads with a barnstorming finish in the Moonee Valley Vase on Cox Plate Day, rattling home from the tail to grab second behind Observer — the current Derby favourite. It was a massive turnaround from his Gloaming Stakes run in Sydney, where he finished midfield. Back racing the Melbourne way and stepping up in trip, he looked far more at home and showed he’s trending the right way at the right time. Drawn out in 12, he’ll need things to fall into place early, but with Craig Williams taking over from James McDonald, he’s in safe hands. If he can slot in with cover and produce that same booming finish on Flemington’s expansive straight, Providence has the staying power and timing to turn the tables and deliver a Derby-day upset. One for the value hunters.

The Victoria Derby market has a clear leader, with OBSERVER (4) firming into a dominant $2.10 favourite  following his commanding win in the Moonee Valley Vase on Cox Plate Day. Trained by Ciaron Maher, the progressive son of Ghaiyyath was simply too good over the 2040m, dictating terms from the front and kicking strongly to hold off Providence by half a length. That performance backed up his third in the Caulfield Guineas and confirmed he’s thriving with each run. Now stepping up to 2500m on the quick back-up, he’s chasing a rare double — no horse has completed the Vase–Derby sweep since Efficient in 2006, but Observer looks every bit capable of joining that elite club. Drawn perfectly in barrier four and with Mark Zahra sticking in the saddle, all signs point to another bold showing. He’s fit, flying, and the punters are piling in. If he gets his way up front again, they might be chasing shadows.

For value in the Top 4 I’m adding in an underrated runner with AZAZEL (10) the lightly raced challenger rising in grade but putting it all together at the right time to outrun his generous Derby odds. Winner of the Geelong Classic, this untapped youngster shapes as a sneaky value play. He’s a son of former Melbourne Cup champ Shocking so is bred to thrive over the staying trip. He’s shown steady progression this prep and gets the benefit of Michael Dee sticking in the saddle — a rider who knows how to time his run in the big ones. If he continues to improve and handles the rise in class, he could be the one to surprise and go close.