Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The Caulfield Cup 2017 tips are flooding in ahead of the opening leg of the Spring Cups double on Saturday and history shows the four-year-old horses in the mix are statistically the best to back.
There are 17 hopefuls in the Group 1 $3 million BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) this year, the race running under the 18-starter capacity after the withdrawal of injured Japanese import Admire Deus on Tuesday morning.
Of the confirmed Caulfield Cup horses there are four four-year-old fancies looking to add to the imposing record of this age group from the past 30 plus years.
Since 1983 there have been 18 Caulfield Cup winning four-year-olds including the past two on the trot with Mongolian Khan (2015) and Jameka (2016) both also starting favourite.
The last time a trio of four-year-olds won the Caulfield Cup in successive years was 2003-05 and before that it was 1999-2001, with only the then six-year-old Fred Kersley-trained Northerly (2002) ruining the run.
It is an open edition of the mile and a half classic this weekend, with Aidan O’Brien’s Irish raider Johannes Vermeer ($4.20) leading the latest Caulfield Cup odds after a lead-up second in the Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m) just last Saturday.
Below though we have a look at the four-year-old chances in Caulfield Cup betting to decide if ATC Derby winner Jon Snow, the Hawkes Racing-trained Inference, one-time favourite Bonneval or the roughie hope Hardman are a winning chance.
#4 JON SNOW
Verdict: Brings into the race the same form as the stable’s 2015 winner and is a live-wire hope at a nice price.
Breeding: by Iffraaj from Orinda
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (NZ)
Owners: Zame Partnership
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Lead-Up Run: 3rd, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017
- Proven over the Caulfield Cup distance having won Sydney’s ATC Derby over 2400m as a 3YO in the autumn
- Five runs in on Saturday so presents fit and ready to fire in good form
- Moonee Valley Group 3 JRA Cup winner two back
- Lead-up third in the Ladbrokes Stakes was eye-catching
- Stablemate Mongolian Khan (2015) won the Caulfield Cup as a 4YO two years back off a Ladbrokes Stakes third
- Drops from 58kg last weekend to 54.5kg
- Stephen Baster is his regular rider this spring and knows the stallion well
- Step-up in distance suits and has Caulfield race experience
- Barrier 6 is a nice draw also producing Mongolian Khan to victory for the stable
Verdict: Would need to be improving notably to turn the tables on those ahead of him in the Ladbrokes Stakes last weekend.
Breeding: by So You Think from Pontiana
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Owners: Mr L P Maxsted, Mr P C Maxsted, G P I Racing, Mr S J Tuxen, Ms K N Cooper, Mr P K Allen, Mrs C D Allen, Mr G J Hayes
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Lead-Up Run: 5th, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017
- Well-bred being a son of dual Cox Plate winner So You Think
- Co-trainer John Hawkes won the race with then four-year-old Railings (2005)
- Jockey Dwayne Dunn rode Tawqeet (2006) to victory in the race and has been on Inference for his three spring runs
- Steadily improving each time out this season
- Only 2.35 lengths off Bonneval two back when sixth in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m)
- Fifth in the Caulfield Stakes last weekend beaten four lengths
- Yet to win over further than a mile
- Needs to improve to turn the tables on the horses that beat him home last Saturday
- No Caulfield Cup winner has finished worse than fourth since 2010
- Hasn’t won a race since the Randwick Guineas in the wet on March 4
- Only the one third place from three previous Caulfield starts
- Enjoys big drop from 58kg to 53.5kg
- Jumps from barrier 11, which produced Jameka for her win last year
Verdict: Can atone for the Ladbrokes Stakes loss and return the 4YO mares to winning Caulfield Cup form with luck from the gate.
Breeding: by Makfi from Imposingly
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (NZ)
Owners: Mr A R Lawrence, Mr J A Rattray, Mr T W Jarvis
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Lead-Up Run: 6th, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017
- One-time favourite but on the drift in Caulfield Cup betting after her loss last weekend and the wide draw
- Only 4YO mare in the field and they have won the Caulfield Cup seven times (since 1983) including Jameka (2016) last year
- Mares haven’t won back-to-back Caulfield Cups since Let’s Elope (1991) and Mannerism (1992)
- Stablemate of Jon Snow representing the 2015 Caulfield Cup winning stable
- Jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides her for the first time but won the race on All The Good (2008)
- She’s a dual winner over the 2400m having done the NZ Oaks – ATC Oaks double as a filly
- Barrier 14 hasn’t produced a winner in over 30 years but five of the past eight saluted from a double-digit draw
Verdict: There are better horses to get behind and doesn’t have the right lead-up form to suggest a win.
Breeding: by Redoute’s Choice from Nureyev’s Girl
Trainer: David Brideoake
Owners: Mrs S A Moody, Mr M J Bradley, Sir P Hogan, Mr M J Davidson, Mr S Derry, Mr M Fleming, Mrs K Fleming, Mr R J Patterson, Mr E Savaglia, Dr G Tsoi Wai Wang, Krualaya, Tomadachi, Ms R L Cormie, Kahos Racing
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Lead-Up Run: 2nd, Inglis Cup (2000m), Caulfield, 01/10/2017
- One of the roughies currently at the same Caulfield Cup odds All The Good (40/1 in 2008) scored the upset at
- Carries 52.5kg the same weight three four-year-olds have saluted with since 2010
- Craig Newitt jumps back on for the first time since September last year but has form on the horse
- Comes off a non-traditional lead-up and the Inglis Cup form is hard to follow
- Was beaten odd-on favourite last time out
- Races in Group 1 company for the first time since the ATC Derby third to Jon Snow in the autumn
- Was under a length beaten in the ATC Derby over the Caulfield Cup distance 2400m
- Comes back from 57.5kg last time out
- Has had five starts at Caulfield for two placings but no wins
- Hasn’t won since the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley in March
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