2017 Caulfield Cup Tips: Back the Four-Year-Olds

October 18, 2017

2017 Caulfield Cup Tips: Back the Four-Year-Olds

The Caulfield Cup 2017 tips are flooding in ahead of the opening leg of the Spring Cups double on Saturday and history shows the four-year-old horses in the mix are statistically the best to back.

Jameka

Jameka (2016) became the seventh four-year-old mare to dominate the Caulfield Cup results since 1983. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.

There are 17 hopefuls in the Group 1 $3 million BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) this year, the race running under the 18-starter capacity after the withdrawal of injured Japanese import Admire Deus on Tuesday morning.

Of the confirmed Caulfield Cup horses there are four four-year-old fancies looking to add to the imposing record of this age group from the past 30 plus years.

Since 1983 there have been 18 Caulfield Cup winning four-year-olds including the past two on the trot with Mongolian Khan (2015) and Jameka (2016) both also starting favourite.

The last time a trio of four-year-olds won the Caulfield Cup in successive years was 2003-05 and before that it was 1999-2001, with only the then six-year-old Fred Kersley-trained Northerly (2002) ruining the run.

It is an open edition of the mile and a half classic this weekend, with Aidan O’Brien’s Irish raider Johannes Vermeer ($4.20) leading the latest Caulfield Cup odds after a lead-up second in the Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m) just last Saturday.

Below though we have a look at the four-year-old chances in Caulfield Cup betting to decide if ATC Derby winner Jon Snow, the Hawkes Racing-trained Inference, one-time favourite Bonneval or the roughie hope Hardman are a winning chance.

#4 JON SNOW

Verdict: Brings into the race the same form as the stable’s 2015 winner and is a live-wire hope at a nice price.

Odds: $12

Breeding: by Iffraaj from Orinda

Age: 4YO

Sex: Stallion

Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (NZ)

Owners:  Zame Partnership

Jockey: Stephen Baster

Barrier: 6

Weight: 54.5kg

Lead-Up Run: 3rd, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017

  • Proven over the Caulfield Cup distance having won Sydney’s ATC Derby over 2400m as a 3YO in the autumn
  • Five runs in on Saturday so presents fit and ready to fire in good form
  • Moonee Valley Group 3 JRA Cup winner two back
  • Lead-up third in the Ladbrokes Stakes was eye-catching
  • Stablemate Mongolian Khan (2015) won the Caulfield Cup as a 4YO two years back off a Ladbrokes Stakes third
  • Drops from 58kg last weekend to 54.5kg
  • Stephen Baster is his regular rider this spring and knows the stallion well
  • Step-up in distance suits and has Caulfield race experience
  • Barrier 6 is a nice draw also producing Mongolian Khan to victory for the stable

#9 INFERENCE

Verdict: Would need to be improving notably to turn the tables on those ahead of him in the Ladbrokes Stakes last weekend.

Odds: $14

Breeding: by So You Think from Pontiana

Age: 4YO

Sex: Stallion

Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Owners: Mr L P Maxsted, Mr P C Maxsted, G P I Racing, Mr S J Tuxen, Ms K N Cooper, Mr P K Allen, Mrs C D Allen, Mr G J Hayes

Jockey: Dwayne Dunn

Barrier: 11

Weight: 53.5kg

Lead-Up Run: 5th, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017

  • Well-bred being a son of dual Cox Plate winner So You Think
  • Co-trainer John Hawkes won the race with then four-year-old Railings (2005)
  • Jockey Dwayne Dunn rode Tawqeet (2006) to victory in the race and has been on Inference for his three spring runs
  • Steadily improving each time out this season
  • Only 2.35 lengths off Bonneval two back when sixth in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m)
  • Fifth in the Caulfield Stakes last weekend beaten four lengths
  • Yet to win over further than a mile
  • Needs to improve to turn the tables on the horses that beat him home last Saturday
  • No Caulfield Cup winner has finished worse than fourth since 2010
  • Hasn’t won a race since the Randwick Guineas in the wet on March 4
  • Only the one third place from three previous Caulfield starts
  • Enjoys big drop from 58kg to 53.5kg
  • Jumps from barrier 11, which produced Jameka for her win last year

#11 BONNEVAL

Verdict: Can atone for the Ladbrokes Stakes loss and return the 4YO mares to winning Caulfield Cup form with luck from the gate.

Odds: $7.50

Breeding: by Makfi from Imposingly

Age: 4YO

Sex: Mare

Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (NZ)

Owners: Mr A R Lawrence, Mr J A Rattray, Mr T W Jarvis

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Barrier: 14

Weight: 52.5kg

Lead-Up Run: 6th, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017

  • One-time favourite but on the drift in Caulfield Cup betting after her loss last weekend and the wide draw
  • Only 4YO mare in the field and they have won the Caulfield Cup seven times (since 1983) including Jameka (2016) last year
  • Mares haven’t won back-to-back Caulfield Cups since Let’s Elope (1991) and Mannerism (1992)
  • Stablemate of Jon Snow representing the 2015 Caulfield Cup winning stable
  • Jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides her for the first time but won the race on All The Good (2008)
  • She’s a dual winner over the 2400m having done the NZ Oaks – ATC Oaks double as a filly
  • Barrier 14 hasn’t produced a winner in over 30 years but five of the past eight saluted from a double-digit draw

#12 HARDHAM

Verdict: There are better horses to get behind and doesn’t have the right lead-up form to suggest a win.

Odds: $41

Breeding: by Redoute’s Choice from Nureyev’s Girl

Age: 4YO

Sex: Stallion

Trainer: David Brideoake

Owners: Mrs S A Moody, Mr M J Bradley, Sir P Hogan, Mr M J Davidson, Mr S Derry, Mr M Fleming, Mrs K Fleming, Mr R J Patterson, Mr E Savaglia, Dr G Tsoi Wai Wang, Krualaya, Tomadachi, Ms R L Cormie, Kahos Racing

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Barrier: 8

Weight: 52.5kg

Lead-Up Run: 2nd, Inglis Cup (2000m), Caulfield, 01/10/2017

  • One of the roughies currently at the same Caulfield Cup odds All The Good (40/1 in 2008) scored the upset at
  • Carries 52.5kg the same weight three four-year-olds have saluted with since 2010
  • Craig Newitt jumps back on for the first time since September last year but has form on the horse
  • Comes off a non-traditional lead-up and the Inglis Cup form is hard to follow
  • Was beaten odd-on favourite last time out
  • Races in Group 1 company for the first time since the ATC Derby third to Jon Snow in the autumn
  • Was under a length beaten in the ATC Derby over the Caulfield Cup distance 2400m
  • Comes back from 57.5kg last time out
  • Has had five starts at Caulfield for two placings but no wins
  • Hasn’t won since the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley in March

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