A good barrier draw will assist Champagne...
This weekend four Group 1 races headline the Flemington program on the opening Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting including the three-year-olds’ facing off in the Victoria Derby 2014, form guide facts and a betting preview for which are detailed below.
This year’s $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) features a full field of 16 plus one emergency, the favourite of which is the Gai Waterhouse-trained Hampton Court.
A $2.80 shot in the Victoria Derby odds at Ladbrokes.com.au the Sydney raider makes his Melbourne debut here looking to become the fourth horse to win the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes – Derby double.
Three others are now into single figures including steady $5.50 second pick Preferment for Chris Waller, the maiden coming off a Geelong Classic second and set to appreciate the extra distance being a son of Zabeel.
Moonovermanhattan is then paying $9 to become the first winner of the Moonee Valley Vase to back and win the Derby seven days later since Efficient (2006).
After firming in from an opening price of $10, Bondeiger is now at $9.50 to improve on a fast finishing seventh in the Group 2 Vase on Cox Plate Day last Saturday, the War Pass colt looking to win from barrier one which produced last year’s Victoria Derby winner Polanski.
That’s the story the bookies are saying but what about the Victoria Derby form guide and historical facts?
2014 Victoria Derby Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Victoria Derby winner was the Robbie Laing-trained Polanski who came off back-to-back wins in the UCI Stakes and Norman Robinson Stakes, jumped from barrier one and was ridden by Hugh Bowman
- This year Laing is back with two chances in #14 Cuban Fighter ($41) and #16 The Mighty Jrod ($71) who are two of the roughie shots in the race
- Bowman is without a ride in this year’s Derby
- The rails run this year belongs to #9 Bondeiger ($9.50) who is also the market mover at Ladbrokes.com.au
- Since 1983 five Victoria Derby winners jumped from the inside gate, more than from any other alley
- The only barrier yet to produce a winner in that time is three with #12 Gouldian ($26) out to break the hoodoo this weekend
- There are four last start winners in the race with #1 Hampton Court (Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes, 2000m, Randwick, 11/10/2014), #2 Moonovermanhattan (Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase, 2040m, Moonee Valley, 25/10/2014), #7 Nozomi (Listed Geelong Classic, 2200, Geelong, 22/10/2014) and #12 Gouldian (Maiden Set Weights, 1600m, Warwick Farm, 08/10/2014)
- Handy Proverb (1985) was the last Victoria Derby winner to run worse than fourth in his lead-up run
- Horses outside the aforementioned last start winners that fit this bill are then #4 Firehouse Rock (3rd), #8 Light Up Manhattan (4th), #10 Royal Standing (10th), #11 Atmosphere (2nd), #13 Preferment (2nd) and #16 The Mighty Jrod (4th)
- This year’s UCI Stakes winner #5 Magicool ($21) runs in the Derby on the back of a fifth in this year’s Norman Robinson Stakes (run as the Caulfield Classic)
- The best finishing Derby hope in the Caulfield Classic meanwhile was #4 Firehouse Rock (3rd) paying $21 to win on the weekend
- Damien Oliver is the most successful Victoria Derby jockey since 1983 with four winners: Fiveandahalfstar (2012), Elvstroem (2003), Amalfi (2001) and Redding (1992)
- This year Oliver rides #13 Preferment ($5.50)
- Favourites have a poor record in the race over the past decade with just two winners: Efficient (2006) and Plastered (2004)
- This year’s favourite is #1 Hampton Court ($2.80) for Gai Waterhouse drawn in barrier 11 which last produced a Derby winner in 2005 with Benicio
- The horses with the equal highest Win Rate are #5 Magicool and #9 Bondeiger with 40% followed by #1 Hampton Court (33%), #2 Moonovermanhattan (33%) and #15 San Padre (33%)
- The best Place Rate meanwhile is 80% belonging to both #4 Firehouse Rock and #9 Bondeiger followed by #11 Atmosphere (75%) and #13 Preferment (67%)
- None of the horses have been up to the 2500m
- #5 Magicool (1-1-0-0) is the only previous winner at the Flemington track
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Victoria Derby betting tips up before race day.
Before then check out all the weekend’s hottest racing odds available online now at Ladbrokes.com.au – home of the $3 million MegaPick this Derby Day!
2014 Victoria Derby Form Guide
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