The BMW 2013 Form Guide & Betting Analysis

While the marquee race on the Rosehill card this Saturday is the two-year-olds’ Golden Slipper there is sure to also be plenty of fanfare over the star stayers facing off in the 2013 The BMW– the Races.com.au team’s inside form guide and betting preview for which is detailed below.

Fiveandahalfstar

Fiveandahalfstar is the deserving 2013 The BMW betting favourite. Photo: Steve Hart

One of the richest races at the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival, the $2.25 million Group 1 The BMW (2400m) is scheduled as Golden Slipper Day Race 5 at 2:35pm (AEST) and a talented 12-horse field of gallopers is engaged to face off.

Current favourite in the The BMW odds at a quote of $3 is Fiveandahalfstar, Anthony Cummings’ Victoria Derby winning Hotel Grand gelding looking to end a four straight concession of second place finishes with a win on the weekend.

Their two most recent runs have been over 2000m when just nudged out of the Group 1 Australian Cup by Super Cool in Flemington before their second to Foreteller in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill last start.

So is Fiveandahalfstar the stayer to beat on Saturday or is there an upset The BMW result on the card?

Other chances in with a shot at the trophy include Ranvet Stakes winner Foreteller ($7), former star stayer Maluckyday ($7) who showed some of their old spark when third in the Ranvet, and the untapped Hathras ($7.50) with barrier 12 to overcome.

Punters can find even juicer odds on some other notable hopes including Doomben Cup champ Mawingo ($16) and Tony McEvoy’s exciting import Le Roi ($21).

To help you pick the winning The BMW trifecta in 2013 we’ve gone over the field, form guide and history to come up with the below must know facts and stats on the race.

2013 The BMW Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s The BMW winner was the Peter Moody-trained Manighar who won the race following a Group 1 double in the Australian Cup and Ranvet Stakes, jumped form barrier 6 (of 9) and was ridden by Luke Nolen
  • This year Moody and Nolen are without representation
  • #1 Foreteller ($7) will look to salute in the same Ranvet Stakes – The BMW double as Manighar from 12 months ago
  • #12 Fiveandahalfstar ($3) ran second in both the Australian Cup and Ranvet Stakes meaning they come via the same lead-up as Manighar
  • Last year’s winning gate six this year also belongs to the favourite #12 Fiveandahalfstar
  • Along with #1 Foreteller the only other last-start winner in the mix this year is then #13 Hathras (3YO 1MW Handicap, 2200m, Warwick Farm, 21/03/2013) who won by nine lengths
  • #9 Le Roi ($21) boasts the best Win Rate of the field with a tidy 62.50% followed by #10 Hathras (50.00%) and #11 Silent Achiever (40.00%)
  • #10 Hathras ($7.50) then has the highest Place Percentage with a perfect 100% followed by #9 Le Roi (57.00%), #11 Silent Achiever (66.67%) and #4 Kelinni (63.64%)
  • Horses with the best Rosehill record are #1 Foreteller (5-3-0-0), #3 Niwot (7-2-2-0), #4 Kelinni (4-1-2-0), #9 Le Roi (2-1-0-1), #10 Hathras (1-1-0-0) and #12 Fiveandahalfstar (5-1-1-1)
  • Over the distance (2400m) those with the best strike rate are #3 Niwot (5-1-1-0), #4 Kelinni (2-1-1-0), #5 Maluckyday (3-1-0-0), #6 Gatewood (3-1-0-1), #8 Sangster (2-1-0-0), #9 Le Roi (1-1-0-0), #10 Hathras (1-1-0-0) and #11 Silent Achiever (2-1-0-0)
  • Three horses have then won over the Track & Distance before with #3 Niwot (2-1-0-0), #4 Kelinni (1-1-0-0) and #9 Le Roi (1-1-0-0)
  • Only 2 of the past 10 favourites have won The BMW while 11 have won since 1983; this year the favourite is #12 Fiveandahalfstar
  • Over the past decade just two of the favourites have failed to run a place
  • Double-figure roughies have won nine times since 1983
  • Geldings have the best recent record in the race with eight victories in the last 10 years including the past four winners; the other two winners were mares
  • There are seven geldings in the race this year including the top fancy #12 Fiveandahalfstar
  • The non-geldings or mares are the four stallions with #2 Mawingo, #6 Gatewood, #9 Le Roi and #10 Hathras making these risky bets statistically
  • Trainer John Hawkes has won the race four times from 13 attempts since 1983; he now trains in partnership with sons Wayne and Michael and they will be dually represented in the race this year with #3 Niwot ($51) and #5 Maluckyday ($7)

Use the above The BMW facts to guide your betting this weekend, making sure you bet with the best – bookmaker.com.au!

2013 The BMW Field & Form Guide

Rosehill Race 5 – 2:35pm (AEST) – 06/04/2013

# Horse Trainer Jockey Br. Wgt. AS Days API Career W% P% Last 6
1. FORETELLER C J Waller Jimmy Cassidy 9 59 6yoG 14 $29,322 28: 9 1 1 32.14% 39.29% x25171
2. MAWINGO Anthony Freedman Craig Williams 4 59 5yoH 14 $37,300 17: 4 2 4 23.53% 58.82% 8×2404
3. NIWOT “M, W and J Hawkes Michael Rodd 7 59 8yoG 14 $33,801 36: 9 4 1 25.00% 38.89% 00×648
4. KELINNI C J Waller Nash Rawiller 1 59 5yoG 14 $35,159 22: 8 3 3 36.36% 63.64% 14×596
5. MALUCKYDAY “M, W and J Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 5 59 6yoG 14 $64,838 21: 5 3 3 23.81% 52.38% 50×563
6. GATEWOOD C J Waller Corey Brown 10 59 5yoH 14 $28,005 14: 5 2 1 35.71% 57.14% 16×679
7. KUTCHINSKY D T O’brien Blake Shinn 11 59 6yoG 26 $14,362 33: 5 5 2 15.15% 36.36% 821514
8. SANGSTER T L Busuttin Steven Arnold 3 58.5 4yoG 14 $71,254 20: 6 3 2 30.00% 55.00% 021117
9. LE ROI Tony Mcevoy Glyn Schofield 2 58 4yoH 14 $25,551 8: 5 0 1 62.50% 75.00% 511113
10. HATHRAS K A Lees Christian Reith 12 58 4yoH 16 $12,972 6: 3 1 2 50.00% 100.00% 21×311
11. SILENT ACHIEVER R A James James Mc Donald 8 56.5 4yoM 14 $47,896 15: 6 2 2 40.00% 66.67% 14×245
12. FIVEANDAHALFSTAR A J Cummings Hugh Bowman 6 54.5 3yoG 14 $70,972 19: 3 6 1 15.79% 52.63% 1×2222

*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change

*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au