The second of the ‘Big 3’ Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival majors runs at Moonee Valley Racecourse as part of a bumper 10-race program this Saturday and below is a detailed form guide and betting analysis for the highly-anticipated Cox Plate 2015.
Due to run as Moonee Valley Race 9 at 5:40pm (AEST) as the penultimate event on the program, the entirety of which Ladbrokes.com.au is offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on this year, is the weight-for-age $3 million Group 1 W.S. Cox Plate (2040m).
A full field of 14 hopefuls line-up in the classic including a trio of international raiders looking to go back-to-back after the success of the Aidan O’Brien-trained Adelaide 12 months ago.
Irish horseman O’Brien is back this Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival after his second Cox Plate trophy on the trot and saddles-up the current $5 favourite in Cox Plate betting – Highland Reel drawn a treat in barrier four with last year’s winning jockey Ryan Moore in the saddle.
The next best in the Cox Plate odds are the David Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained Criterion ($6.50) in barrier seven who won the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) first-up last start and the early market mover Winx ($6.50) on the rails and coming off a Group 1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) success in Sydney for her ace trainer Chris Waller.
So will one of the top three in betting get the job done or does this year’s Cox Plate form guide, betting history and statistics reveal value further down the markets?
2015 Cox Plate Form Guide & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Cox Plate winner was the Aidan O’Brien-trained European raider Adelaide (2014) who came off an international Group 3 third and jumped from barrier 13 (of 14) with Ryan Moore aboard the 7/1 shot
- This year the international raiders in the mix are #8 Arod ($8.50), #10 Gailo Chop ($26) and #13 Highland Reel ($5)
- #13 Highland Reel is prepared by last year’s winning trainer O’Brien with last year’s winning hoop Moore in the saddle
- Along with O’Brien (1-1-0-0) the only other previous Cox Plate winning trainer with a starter on Saturday is David Hayes (19-2-0-1) who trains #1 Criterion ($6.50) in partnership with Tom Dabernig
- Along with Moore (1-1-0-0) the other previous Cox Plate winning jockeys with a ride in 2015 are: Damien Oliver (17-2-0-2) on #2 Fawkner ($15) who was runner-up last year, Craig Williams (10-2-2-0) on #8 Arod and Glen Boss (10-3-0-2) on #11 Kermadec ($8)
Last year’s winning barrier (13) has produced just two winners (since 1983) and belongs on Saturday to #3 Happy Trails ($21)
- The most successful Cox Plate barrier in that time with five winners is gate five that #8 Arod jumps from this weekend
- The last Cox Plate winner to come off a last start victory was Ocean Park (2012) who completed the Caulfield Stakes – Cox Plate double
- This year #1 Criterion is after the same double having won the same Group 1 lead-up over the 2000m at Caulfield on October 10 before his Cox Plate run
- The other last start winners in the field are: #5 Mourinho (Group 1 Underwood Stakes, 1800m, Caulfield, 26/09/2015), #9 Complacent (Group 3 Craven Plate, 2000m, Randwick, 03/10/2015), #10 Gailo Chop (Group 3 La Coupe, 2000m, Maisons-Laffitte, France, 18/09/2015), #12 Preferment (Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, 2000m, Flemington, 04/10/2015) and #14 Winx (Group 1 Epsom Handicap, 1600m, Randwick, 03/10/2015)
- Early market mover #14 Winx ($6.50) is one of three Waller-trained Cox Plate hopes this year and is looking to join Makybe Diva (2005) and Pinker Pinker (2011) as the only mares to win the race in the past 10 years
- Favourites have only one two of the past 10 Cox Plates with #13 Highland Reel out to be the next this season and salute for the punters for the first time since So You Think (1/2 in 2010)
- Four-year-olds have won four of the past five Cox Plates and this year the 4YOs in the mix are: #11 Kermadec, #12 Preferment ($13), #13 Highland Reel and #14 Winx
- Just one eight-year-old has won (since 1983) and this year the 8YOs looking to be the first of their age since Super Impose (1992) are: #2 Fawkner, #3 Happy Trails, #4 Mourinho and #6 The Cleaner
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #10 Gailo Chop (58%) followed by #14 Winx (57%) and #9 Complacent (50%)
- The best Place Rate of the field belongs to #9 Complacent (90%) followed by #10 Gailo Chop (83%), #8 Arod (82%) and #14 Winx (79%)
- Over the distance (2000m) the horses with the best form are: #5 Mourinho (22-8-0-6), #10 Gailo Chop (10-7-0-0), #8 Arod (5-4-0-), #1 Criterion (11-3-3-2), #4 Hartnell (8-3-0-2), #3 Happy Trails (14-2-3-2), #9 Complacent (3-2-0-1), #12 Preferment (3-2-1-0), #7 Pornichet (4-2-0-0) and #2 Fawkner (6-1-2-1)
- At Moonee Valley the horses with previous winning form are: #5 Mourinho (12-5-2-1), #6 The Cleaner (8-5-1-1), #2 Fawkner (5-1-1-1) and #3 Happy Trails (7-1-2-1)
Stay tuned for our insider Cox Plate 2015 betting tips to be published shortly.
In the meantime head over to Ladbrokes.com.au and open an account with the only bookie down under offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on the entire Cox Plate Day card in Melbourne on Saturday!