2014 Melbourne Cup Form Guide & Preview

On Tuesday Melbourne’s Flemington Racecourse will be home to the last of the ‘Big Three’ spring features with the Melbourne Cup 2014 capturing the attention of race fans around the nation and further afield, a full form guide analysis and betting preview for the world’s richest handicap found below.

Admire Rakti

Admire Rakti is the 2014 Melbourne Cup favourite for Tuesday. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

There are a full 24 stayers facing off in this year’s $6.2 million Group1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (2500m), the iconic two mile showdown running as Race 7 at 3:00pm (AEDT).

Yesterday afternoon the Melbourne Cup barrier draw took place with the Caulfield Cup winning 58.5kg top weight Admire Rakti from Japan remaining the favourite at an easing $5.50 (out from $5) through Ladbrokes.com.au after coming up trumps with barrier 8.

Four of the Japanese-trained galloper’s rivals are now also at single figures in the updated Melbourne Cup odds.

The other top hopes are then brave-in-defeat Caulfield Cup third placegetter Lucia Valentina ($7), German stayer Protectionist ($7.50), Saturday’s Lexus Stakes winning lightweight Signoff ($8) and the Robert Hickmott-trained Fawkner ($9) coming off a Cox Plate second.

The only other two under $20 in Melbourne Cup betting are then the Johnny Murtagh-trained Irish galloper Mutual Regard ($13) to be ridden by last year’s winning hoop Damien Oliver and dual Melbourne Cup runner-up Red Cadeaux ($19) out to be the first nine-year-old winner of the race in history.

That is the Melbourne Cup story as told by the bookies, but what about the time-honoured history and 2014 form guide of the race first run way back in 1861?

The team at Races.com.au have gone over the complete Melbourne Cup field, form guide and statistics to come up with the below must know Melbourne Cup facts before you head to Ladbrokes.com.au to place your bets on Tuesday.

2014 Melbourne Cup Form Facts & Betting Stats

Last Year’s Form

  • Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner was the Gai Waterhouse-trained Fiorente who came off a Cox Plate third, jumped form barrier 5 (of 24) with Damien Oliver in the saddle on 55kg as the $6 favouirte
  • This year Waterhouse is without a runner but Oliver is after back-to-back wins and his fourth in total aboard #11 Mutual Regard ($13) for former Irish jockey Johnny Murtagh
  • Last year’s winning barrier (5) then belongs this year to $201 outsider #23 Unchain My Heart with Green Moon (2012) also jumping from the gate
  • This only Melbourne Cup horse coming via the Cox Plate this year then is #3 Fawkner ($9) for Robert Hickmott who ran a brave second to Adelaide

Melbourne Cup Barrier Form

  • As mentioned Fiorente jumped from barrier 5 to win last year which has produced three winners since 1983 with Vintage Crop (1993), Green Moon (2012) and Fiorente (2013)
  • This year #23 Unchain My Heart (David Hayes & Tom Dabernig) is out to be the next
  • No horse (since 1925) has won from barrier 18 which belongs this year to #6 Sea Moon ($151)
  • During that time barrier 11 is the most successful in the Melbourne Cup with seven wins, most recently Americain (2010)
  • Barrier 11 this year belongs to #5 Protectionist ($7.50)
  • Other successful barriers with six wins each have been 5, 10 and 14 which this year belong to #23 Unchain My Heart, #19 Lidari ($51) and #20 Opinion ($67)

Lead-Up Form

  • Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente came off a Cox Plate third and the only Cox Plate runner backing-up this year is #3 Fawkner (3rd)
  • 11 Caulfield Cup winners have backed-up to win the Melbourne Cup as #1 Admire Rakti ($5.50) looks to do in 2014
  • The Caulfield Cup is considered the best Melbourne Cup form guide with 13 winners coming via it in the past 30 years – the most recent however being Viewed (2008)
  • Along with the winner Admire Rakti (1st) the other Caulfield Cup horses running on Tuesday are Lucia Valentina (3rd), Brambles (4th), Araldo (5th), Lidari (6th), Junoob (7th), Who Shot Thebarman (13th), Seismos (15th), Unchain My Heart (17th) and Sea Moon (18th)
  • #1 Admire Rakti (Group 1 Caulfield Cup, 2400m, Caulfield, 18/10/2014) is one of only three last start winners in the Melbourne Cup field this year along with #11 Mutual Regard (Ebor Handicap, 2800m York, UK, 23/08/2014) and #24 Signoff (Group 3 Lexus Stakes, 2500m, Flemington, 01/11/2014)
  • The Mackinnon Stakes (10 winners), Lexus Stakes (four winners) and Geelong Cup (three winners) are the only other Australian races to provide a Melbourne Cup winner in the past 30 years

Melbourne Cup Jockeys

  • Damien Oliver rode last year’s Melbourne Cup winner to victory and also boasts wins aboard Media Puzzle (2002) and Doriemus (1995)
  • He shoots for a fourth on Tuesday with #11 Mutual Regard (barrier 12)
  • Also boasting three Melbourne Cup wins in recent history is Glen Boss who rode Makybe Diva for all three of her victories (2003, 2004, 2005)
  • Boss is back on Saturday aboard #12 Who Shot Thebarman ($26)
  • The only other winning Melbourne Cup jockey in the past five years with a ride this year is then Gerald Mosse (Americain, 2010) aboard #4 Red Cadeaux ($19)

Internationals

  • Since 1993 there have been five international Melbourne Cup winners from outside of Australia and New Zealand most recently Americian (2010) and Dunaden (2011)
  • This year there are 11 internationals in the mix including the favourite #1 Admire Rakti
  • The other international hopes are then: #2 Cavalryman, #4 Red Cadeaux, #5 Protectionist, #7 Seismos, #9 Royal Diamond, #10 Gatewood, #11 Mutal Regard, #13 Willing Foe, #14 My Ambivalent and #18 Au Revoir

Weights

  • The 2014 Melbourne Cup top weight is #1 Admire Rakti (58.5kg) out to be the first to salute with that weight since Think Big (1975)
  • Since 1993 11 horses have carried at least 58.5kg in a Melbourne Cup but only Vintage Crop (3rd with 59kg in 1995) has run top three
  • The 2014 Melbourne Cup light weight is then #24 Signoff (51kg) who will actually carry 51.5kg to allow for jockey Joao Moreira to stay on
  • In the past five years three Melbourne Cup winners have carried 54.5kg to victory with Americain (2010), Duanden (2011) and Green Moon (2012)
  • Two horses are allocated 54.5kg this year with #14 My Ambivalent ($51) and #15 Precedence ($101)
  • Makybe Diva (58kg in 2005) is the only horse to carry more than 56.5kg to victory in a Melbourne Cup since 1983
  • That also rules out #2 Cavalryman (57kg), #3 Fawkner (57kg) and #4 Red Cadeaux (57kg) this year

Win / Place Statistics

  • #24 Signoff (54%) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field followed by #12 Who Shot Thebarman (53%) and #5 Protectionist (44%)
  • #5 Protectionist (89%) has the highest Place Rate followed by #11 Mutual Regard (82%), #24 Signoff (77%), #3 Fawkner (72%) and #10 Gatewood (72%)

Track / Distance Statistics

  • Previous winners at the Flemington track are #3 Fawkner (11-5-3-1), #12 Who Shot Thebarman (2-2-0-0), #15 Precedence (12-2-1-0), #16 Brambles (4-1-0-1), #17 Mr O’Ceirin (3-1-0-0), #19 Lidari (5-1-3-0), #21 Araldo (2-1-0-1), #22 Lucia Valentina (1-1-0-0), #23 Unchain My Heart (13-4-2-0) and #24 Signoff (2-1-0-1)
  • Those with top three form over the 3200m are then #2 Cavalryman (6-2-2-0), #11 Mutual Regard (5-2-2-0), #23 Unchain My Heart (3-2-0-0), #4 Red Cadeaux (7-0-3-1), #9 Royal Diamond (3-1-0-2), #12 Who Shot Thebarman (2-1-0-0) and #20 Opinion (1-0-1-0)

Age Statistics

  • The past four Melbourne Cup winners have been six-year-old entires with 6yos winning a total of 32 Melbourne Cups
  • The only six-year-old stallion in the race this year is #19 Lidari ($51)
  • The other six-year-olds are either geldings or mares with #11 Mutual Regard (6yoG), #12 Who Shot Thebarman (6yoG), #14 My Ambivalent (6yoM), #16 Brambles (6yoG) and #20 Opinion (6yoG)
  • #14 My Ambivalent is out to become the fifth 6yo mare to win the race
  • The most successful age group overall are four-year-olds with 43 wins followed by 42 victories for the five-year-olds
  • #22 Lucia Valentina (4yoM) is the only four-year-old this year while the five-year-olds in the mix are #5 Protectionist, #18 Au Revoir and #24 Signoff
  • No nine-year-olds have ever won the race but this year #2 Cavalryman, #4 Red Cadeaux, #9 Royal Diamond, #15 Precedence will try

Stay tuned to Races.com.au over the coming two days for all the latest on the Melbourne Cup field, form, betting updates and tips.

Then when you’re ready to back your favourites at the best prices visit Ladbrokes.com.au and try the Megafecta for first seven over the line for a $10 million payout!

2014 Melbourne Cup Form Guide

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