2014 TJ Smith Stakes Form Guide & Betting Analysis

Buffering has one of the best Heavy track records working in their favour for a likely wet 2014 TJ Smith Stakes. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

The feature sprint showdown on the Doncaster Mile Day program in Sydney this weekend is the TJ Smith Stakes 2014, the Races.com.au team’s form analysis and betting preview for which are detailed below.

There are a capacity 18 runners set to face off in this year’s $2.5 million Group 1 Darley TJ Smith Stakes (1200m), the classic running as Royal Randwick Race 7 at 3:50pm (AEST).

Two emergencies also still lay in wait for a scratching, the first emergency Irish Fling however already withdrawn.

The top three rated TJ Smith Stakes acceptors are also the only three in the mix under double figures at Ladbrokes.com.au to win with current betting led by the market mover Lankan Rupee.

Steady money continues to come in for this Mick Price-trained four-year-old, Redoute’s Choice gelding Lankan Rupee now into $3.80 to make it three Group 1 wins on the trot.

They’ve won all five of their starts since November last year including the coveted Oakleigh Plate – Newmarket Handicap Group 1 sprint double this autumn in Melbourne.

While yet to race in Sydney under race conditions, the TJ Smith Stakes favourite did win their Randwick trial last Friday indicating they could handle the reverse way of going.

The only other barrier could then be the wet track at Randwick, Lankan Rupee yet to run on anything worse than a Dead (4).

Following Lankan Rupee in the TJ Smith Stakes betting markets are then triple Group 1 winning Queensland champ Buffering ($6) second-up for the season after a below par seventh when resuming here in mid-March and Tom Hogan’s Irish raider Gordon Lord Byron ($8) coming via a Group 1 George Ryder upset from a fortnight ago.

To help you figure out with this top trio are the ones to lock into your TJ Smith Stakes trifecta tips for this weekend, below are our must know facts and stats on the race.

2014 TJ Smith Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats

Last year’s TJ Smith Stakes winner was the Peter Moody-trained Black Caviar (in her career swansong) who came off autumn wins in the Lighting Stakes and William Reid Stakes, jumped from barrier one (of 11) and was ridden by Luke Nolen
This year Moody’s only chance of going back-to-back is with emergency runner #20e Flamberge ($71)
Barrier one that produced Black Caviar 12 months ago to win then belongs this year to the favourite #3 Lankan Rupee ($3.80) who will be ridden by Craig Newitt

Horse Racing Tip The favourite Lankan Rupee has the inside alley which Black Caviar won the TJ Smith Stakes from last year

The most successful TJ Smith Stakes barrier since 1983 is gate five with five winners followed by four with three winners; this year those gun gates belong to #12 Aeronautical ($101) and #6 Tiger Tees ($26) respectively
Favourites have won three of the past 10 TJ Smith Stakes with four in that time failing to place
This year’s Lighting Stakes winner #14 Snitzerland ($17) is in the mix for the TJ Smith Stakes drawn out wide (21), as is the William Reid Stakes champ #6 Tiger Tees ($26) in barrier four
The William Reid Stakes has twice produced the TJ Smith Stakes winner in the past decade with Black Caviar also completing the double in 2011
Along with #3 Lankan Rupee (Group 1 Newmarket Handicap, 1200m, Flemington, 08/03/2014) and #4 Spirit Of Boom (Group 1 William Reid Stakes, 1200m, Moonee Valley, 21/03/2014) the other last start winners are: #2 Gordon Lord Byron (Group 1 George Ryder Stakes, 1500m, Rosehill, 29/03/2014), #6 Tiger Tees (Group 1 The Galaxy, 1100m, Rosehill, 29/03/2014), #15 Steps In Time (Group 1 Coolmore Classic, 1500m, Rosehill, 22/03/2014) and #20e Flamberge (Group 3 Sebring Stakes, 1200m, Rosehill, 05/04/2014)
Mares have won the TJ Smith Stakes four times in the past 10 years; the three mares in the mix this year are: #14 Snitzerland ($18), #15 Steps In Time ($17) and #21e Peron ($101)
The only filly to win in that time has been Melito (2010); the two fillies out to be the next this year are #17 Sweet Idea ($17) and #18 Villa Verde ($16)
The most successful age group in the past decade has been six-year-olds with three wins; six-year-olds in the mix this year are #1 Buffering ($6), #2 Gordon Lord Byron ($8), #4 Spirit Of Boom ($26), #6 Tiger Tees ($26), #7 Bel Sprinter ($51) and #15 Steps In Time ($17)
Gai Waterhouse is the most successful TJ Smith Stakes winning trainer since 1983 with three wins from nine starters; this year she’ll be after her fourth with #17 Sweet Idea ($17)
Nash Rawiller is the most successful TJ Smith Stakes winning jockey with 2 wins from seven rides since 1983 along with Luke Nolen (2 from 3); this year Rawiller rides #6 Tiger Tees ($26)
Over the distance the horses with the best record are: #1 Buffering (25-10-6-3), #2 Gordon Lord Byron (17-5-3-4), #14 Snitzerland (11-5-1-0), #15 Steps In Time (8-4-2-1), #5 Rebel Dane (6-3-0-0), #6 Tiger Tees (8-3-0-1), #9 Fontelina (9-3-1-0), #10 Famous Seamus (11-3-1-3), #12 Aeronautical (12-3-2-1), #13 See The World (11-3-2-2), #8 Shamexpress (10-2-2-2), #16 Zoustar (3-2-0-0), #17 Sweet Idea (6-2-3-1), #3 Lankan Rupee (5-2-0-1), #20e Flamberge (8-3-1-1) and #21e Peron (3-2-1-0)

At the track horses with the best Randwick record are: #10 Famous Seamus (6-2-0-2), #17 Sweet Idea (2-2-0-0), #12 Aeronautical (7-2-1-0), #1 Buffering (3-1-1-0), #11 Sessions (3-1-1-0), #13 See The World (4-1-1-1), #6 Tiger Tees (4-1-0-0), #15 Steps In Time (1-1-0-0), #16 Zoustar (2-1-0-0) and #18 Villa Verde (2-1-0-0)
Winners of the Track and Distance are then: #1 Buffering (2-1-1-0), #6 Tiger Tees (2-1-0-0), #12 Aeronautical (4-2-0-0), #13 See The World (3-1-1-1), #16 Zoustar (1-1-0-0) and #17 Sweet Idea (1-1-0-0)
In the wet horses with the best Heavy track record are: #1 Buffering (4-2-1-0), #2 Gordon Lord Byron (3-2-1-0), #6 Tiger Tees (2-1-1-0), #10 Famous Seamus (1-1-0-0), #13 See The World (3-1-0-0), #17 Sweet Idea (1-1-0-0) and #20e Flamberge (2-2-0-0)

Got the TJ Smith Stakes winner and placegetters picked out and ready to lock in? Then visit Ladbrokes.com.au now where if you fancy Lankan Rupee or Gordon Lord Byron for the win you can lock them in at a juicy $4 and get paid if either runner salutes!