They defeated the Cox Plate 2012 favourite Pierro running them down last start in a shock Caulfield Guineas result but are still at double figure odds for Saturday’s rematch, so what are the chances of Nathan Tinkler’s golden colt All Too Hard doing it again this weekend?
Gai Waterhouse’s autumn 2YO triple crown winner Pierro suffered their first defeat at the hands of the Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes-trained All Too Hard when the latter, a half-brother of Black Caviar purchased for over $1 million as a yearling, got the better of them in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) a fortnight ago.
Now Pierro and Casino Prince colt All Too Hard are scheduled to face off again when the dynamic duo jump as two of the three three-year-olds, the third being Pierro’s also well fancied stablemate Proisir, in the $3 million Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley tomorrow.
While All Too Hard had the upper hand in the Guineas the bookies don’t believe it will be the same result on Saturday.
Pierro is the easing $4.40 favourite in the Cox Plate odds at bookmaker.com.au while All Too Hard is at $11 to earn nearly double their purchase price for connections with an upset in Moonee Valley Race 8.
It was a late decision from Team Hawkes to run All Too Hard in the Cox Plate 2012 and below we look at the evidence for and against the young gun continuing their magic run and taking out Australasia’s weight-for-age championship.
#13 All Too Hard – Horse Facts
- Jockey: Chris Munce
- Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
- Owners: Patianck Farm Racing
- Age: 3YO
- Gender: Colt
- Breeding: by Casino Prince (AUS) from Desert Sun (GB) mare Helsinge (AUS)
- Career: 8-4-1-1
- Win: 50.00%
- Place: 75.00%
- Last 6: 2×3541
- Prize Money: $1,059,200
- Track: 0-0-0-0
- Distance: 0-0-0-0
- Current 2012 Cox Plate Odds: $11
Why All Too Hard Can Score an Upset 2012 Cox Plate Result
- Beat home Cox Plate favourite #1 Pierro ($4.40) by half a length last start in the Caulfield Guineas
- Is well weighted as a 3YO in the Cox Plate carrying just 49.5kg meeting the older horses at least 7.5kg better in the weights
- Beautifully bred horse being a half-brother of star sprinter Black Caviar
- Has a 50% Win Rate, the fifth best in this field
- Will be ridden by a former Cox Plate winning jockey in Chris Munce who has had six Cox Plate rides and won with Savabeel (2004)
- Also the only horse whose trainer has won a Cox Plate before, John Hawkes (who now trains in partnership with sons Michael & Wayne) – he won the Cox Plate with Octagonal back in 1995 who was a three-year-old at the time
- Drawn nicely in barrier three
Why All Too Hard Will be Beaten in the Cox Plate 2012 Finishing Order
- Is the wrong age for a Cox Plate win history showing just four of the 62 three-year-olds to contest the race getting to the line first
- Won the Caulfield Guineas last start and only one of the past 17 Caulfield Guineas winners to run in the Cox Plate have been successful and only 4 have done so in history
- The last horse to win the Caulfield Guineas – Cox Plate double was Red Anchor back in 1984
- Have only ever raced over a mile or under, can they get the 2000m? Does their breeding say they can?
- Make a better place bet as their place percentage is a consistent 75% but their winning strike rate is only 50%
- Yet to race at Moonee Valley which is a notoriously tricky course for first timers
- Their grand final was probably the Caulfield Guineas with the Cox Plate run an afterthought, not the sort of race you win on a whim
Do you like the value of All Too Hard in this year’s Cox Plate markets? Whether you want to take them to win or just include them in your exotics make sure you head along to bookmaker.com.au and access all the best Cox Plate betting odds and options.