Tomorrow Phillip Stokes’ smart Adelaide filly Maybe Discreet will be out to become the 15th filly to complete the Edward Manifold Stakes – Thousand Guineas double when she steps out at Caulfield, but can she get the better of the favourite?
Fellow Morphettville-based filly Molto Bene is the $4.40 top elect at bookmaker.com.au to take out the $500,000 Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m) this year despite not having raced since her third to Lady Of Harrods and Commanding Jewel – both also backing up in Wednesday’s feature – in the Group 3 Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m) on September 22.
Shamardal filly Maybe Discreet, $7.50 co-second pick with Love For Ransom, meanwhile ran in the traditional Thousand Guineas lead-up last time out when hanging on in a tight finish to beat home Members Joy and Commanding Jewel in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1610m).
History suggests this is the form that will stand up in the big one with 14 fillies having won the Edward Manifold before their Thousand Guineas success.
So can Maybe Discreet be the next?
Her trainer certainly believes she has the improvement in her to score her third stakes win over a mile on the trot.
“She took a couple of days to get back on her feet after the race because she had to travel over there and obviously it was a hard run going forward from the (wide) barrier,” Stokes said.
“She took about three days to get back to where we wanted her.
“She’s fit and well going forward into tomorrow,” he said. “She’ll be on the speed there somewhere and she’ll be strong at the end.
“We’re proven at the mile and I think it’s a pretty even field.
“There’s no standouts, there are a very even lot of fillies and I’m confident and happy with where our horse is at.
“And I just think that with the better barrier (nine) and around Caulfield, there’s a few ticks there.”
Is the trainer right? Below we take a look at the stats for and against Maybe Discreet scoring an upset Thousand Guineas 2012 result tomorrow.
#4 Maybe Discreet – Horse Facts
- Jockey: Luke Nolen
- Trainer: Phillip Stokes
- Owners: Mr D G Peacock, Mrs P M Loxton, Mr V A Lianos, Mrs L Yialas, Mr D S Marshall, Mrs W A Marshall, Mr J M Sullivan, Mrs F J Sullivan, Mr D L Field, Dr R L De Ross
- Age: 3YO
- Gender: Filly
- Breeding: by Shamardal (USA) out of Bluebird (USA) mare Oh So Discreet (AUS)
- Career: 6-3-2-0
- Win: 50.00%
- Place: 83.33%
- Last 6: x15211
- Prize Money: $259,950
- Track: 0-0-0-0
- Distance: 2-2-0-0
- Current 2012 Thousand Guineas Odds: $7.50
Yes – Maybe Discreet Will Win the 2012 Thousand Guineas
- Has won her past two starts on the trot
- Proven over the mile (2-2-0-0)
- Comes off a win in the Edward Manifold Stakes which is the form race for the Thousand Guineas in recent years with three fillies completing the double since 2002
- Overcame barrier 15 (of 16) to win last time and has drawn more favourably with gate nine (into eight) for Wednesday
- Is an even field with no standout filly like there was with odds-on favourite Atlantic Jewel last year
- Beat fellow Thousand Guineas hopefuls Members Joy and Commanding Jewel who finished two-three behind her in the Edward Manifold last time out
- 50% winning strike rate having won three of her six starts to date and an 83.33% place rate
- In the past 30 years 18 thousand Guineas winner have come off a top three placing, and since 2002 all but two of the nine Thousand Guineas winners were coming off a hat-trick of to-three placings – Maybe Discreet fits this bill along with Commanding Jewel ($8)
No – Maybe Discreet Won’t be the 2012 Thousand Guineas Winner
- Yet to race at Caulfield which is a notoriously tricky track for first-timers
- Needs to beat the likes of Molto Bene ($4.40) and Love For Ransom ($7.50)
- She only just got the better of Members Joy ($13) last time out and will have to watch for improvement from her rivals as they get up in distance
Whatever filly you are tipping to win the Thousand Guineas this year your best bet is to place online at bookmaker.com.au who offer the premium range of fixed win markets in the country.