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Observer has shot to the top of all-in 2026 Australian Guineas betting following the VRC Derby winner’s successful return to racing in the Group 2 $300,000 Autumn Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on Saturday.
Ciaron Maher‘s gun colt enjoyed a huge spring that culminated with his Vase – Derby double, and he kicked off right where he left off saluting as the equal favourite fresh in the 2026 Autumn Stakes results showing off his class and versatility over the shorter distance fresh.
Observer has stamped his arrival as a genuine autumn force after producing a powerful performance thanks to a gun ride by Ethan Brown – filling in for the injured Mark Zahra – to claim victory in the Group 2, surging clear late to secure his fourth career win at start number eight and ignite talk of bigger targets ahead.
“He has matured a lot,” Maher’s national assistant trainer Jack Turnbull told Racing.com on Saturday.
“We’ve taken the Norton Bit off and decided to go with the lugging bit today.
“To begin like he did and then for Ethan just to go with him and be in that position and travel so kind, it was good to see from our end.
“To respond and quicken, first-up off a Derby prep and so lightly raced, it was pretty exciting.”
The progressive three-year-old travelled like the winner a long way from home, settling midfield with cover before Brown and the eventual winner moved into the race with purpose approaching the bend.
Once angled into clear air, Observer ($4EF) lengthened beautifully, finding the front at the top of the straight and putting the result beyond doubt inside the final 200 metres.
He eventually crossed the line 1.25 lengths clear over the also resuming runner-up, Caulfield Guineas second placegetter Planet Red, with Victorious Spirit in third, earning plenty of post-race praise from Brown.
“He’s come back from the break really well,” the winning hoop said.
“I know it is not his grand final but, gee, a great training performance to win first-up over 1400.
“He can be a bit dour, but his last gallop was super. Ciaron has switched him on at the right time.
“The beauty of it is that he was fresh enough to hold a spot over 1400 so going up in trip he’ll dour out but that he can hold a spot makes it easier for connections, horse and jockey.”
The win continues a steady rise through the grades and confirms the colt’s suitability to the 1400m trip, with the stable confirming a tilt at the $1 million Australian Guineas over the Flemington mile on February 28 followed possibly by the Group 1 $1 million Randwick Guineas (1600m) in Sydney on March 7 as his next major assignment.
“He’ll be second-up in the Australian Guineas in three weeks which is his early grand final,” Turnbull said.
“If we were to be successful then we could go a few different options.
“He’s a classy animal and it was fantastic for us to be training this colt for Godolphin, and to be hitting the ground like that after a Derby prep is very good.”
While no three-year-old has completed the Autumn Stakes – Australian Guineas double since Light Fantastic (2008), there’s plenty of early money coming for Observer to be the next.
His quote in all-in Australian Guineas betting at Ladbrokes.com.au has been slashed from $7 into $3 and he is now the co-favourite with the spring’s Sandown Guineas winning filly Sheza Alibi.
He is at $15 to win the Randwick Guineas 2026.
| 1. Observer (7) J: Ethan Brown59.5kg 2311xT: Ciaron Maher | ||
| 3. Planet Red (10) J: Jamie Melham57kg 1432xT: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | ||
| 10. Victorious Spirit (12) J: Zac Spain57kg 231xT: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman | ||
| 7. Onavuitton (6) J: Thomas Stockdale57kg 63x1T: Simon Zahra | ||
| 6. Top Reward (2) J: Michael Dee57kg 13xT: Clayton Douglas | ||
| 2. Buccleuch (4) J: Jye Mcneil58kg 111x6T: Patrick & Michelle Payne | ||
| 8. Crocodile (1) J: Ben Allen57kg 519x1T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | ||
| 5. Master Of The Air (9) J: Damian Lane57kg x116xT: Chris Waller | ||
| 4. Arcora (5) J: John Allen57kg 0052xT: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | ||
| 11. Top Conti (3) J: Lachlan King57kg T: Steven King | ||
| 12. Davida (8) J: Craig Williams55kg 1x711T: Danny O'brien | ||
| 9. Cyber Link (11) J: Beau Mertens57kg 1T: Greg Eurell |
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