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Australia’s stallion-making race headlines the racing action at Flemington on Day 1 of the Melbourne Cup Carnival, and our insider 2024 Victoria Derby tips and best bets found below.
We look set for another exciting edition of the iconic 2500m showdown that has been run and won since 1855.
There are a number of already proven Group 1 winners in the mix including Spring Champion Stakes winner in Sydney last weekend El Castello who leads Victoria Derby betting at Ladbrokes.com.au.
The VRC Derby is always a thrilling contest and serves as a gun entree for punters awaiting Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup!
Can El Castello salute for the punters from the outside gate and do the Spring Champion – Derby double for the first time since Ace High in 2017?
Or will Nick Ryan‘s Vase winner, Red Aces, also on the seven-day back-up frank the form out of Moonee Valley and become the first horse to win both events since Efficient back in 2006?
Are we about to crown another Ciaron Maher-trained Group 1 champion this spring with the master horseman saddling-up Geelong Classic winner Saint Emilion chasing a hat-trick?
Or can the rails-drawn King Of Thunder hand his hoop James McDonald a consolation win after the jockey missed out on a ride in this year’s Melbourne Cup field?
Read on to see the horses we are backing and sacking in Flemington Race 7 at 4:20pm (AEDT) on Saturday before heading to Ladbrokes.com.au to lock in your selections at the right price.
To Win: #2 Red Aces ($7 at time of publish) – BET NOW
Great clash expected in the Derby but tipping the Moonee Valley Vase form from last weekend on Cox Plate Day to stack-up.
Punters have to go back to Efficient in 2006 to find the last horse to do the Vase – Derby double, but this talented Nick Ryan-trained Dundeel colt looks set to be the next.
He is bred to stay the Derby distance and was impressive over 2040m to return to winning form in the Vase.
Red Aces came from midfield and made-up ground there which are encouraging signs as he prepares to step up in distance and grade.
A win and a second from his two previous Flemington starts prove he likes the track, and he is drawn to get a sweet run from barrier four with Jamie Mott retaining the ride.
Think the quick back-up will suit and he’ll stay all day.
Can win.
The Danger: #1 El Castello ($4.20 at time of publish) – BET NOW
You cannot bet on the VRC Derby this year and leave the deserving favourite El Castello out even after his horror outside barrier draw.
Barrier 18 is the only reason I don’t have this class horse on top.
He is going great guns winning his last four straight and is showing no signs of slowing down.
The 2500m is the query for them all but the way that Cummings’ Castelvecchio colt hit the line in winning Sydney’s Group 1 Spring Champion over 2000m last Saturday gives positive indications he’ll run out the Derby distance.
He needs to get the right luck early and the right ride by Josh Parr, not using too much early.
Was on speed last weekend so hoping he doesn’t exert himself trying to cross and leave nothing in the tank for the closing stages.
Will he like Flemington and the Melbourne way? That’s the other question but if he’s good enough he’ll win.
Deserving favourite just needs the favours in the run.
The Roughie: #6 Kingofwallstreet ($15 at time of publish) – BET NOW
There’s a host of double-figure outsiders in this year’s Derby markets that tick a number of boxes for an upset without shocking.
Kingofwallstreet is one at $15 at time of publish that is doing plenty right ahead of his big test on Saturday.
The Matt Cumani-trained galloper is another son of Dundeel who looks like the 2500m distance will be to his liking.
Comes in with confidence having broking his maiden status at start number three last time out in the Group 3 Caulfield Classic (2000m) on Caulfield Cup Day.
Polanski (2013) was the last to do the Caulfield Classic / VRC Derby double and a midfield draw giving options puts this guy in line to potentially be the next.
Michael Dee continues associations, he’s got that Group 3 win on the CV now and might just take it to the next level here.
| 4. Goldrush Guru (13) J: Jamie Kah57kg 11221T: Andrew Gluyas | ||
| 13. Scary (7) J: Luke Nolen57kg 02135T: Emma-Lee & David Browne | ||
| 11. China Sea (6) J: Mark Zahra57kg 0x962T: J G Sargent | ||
| 6. Kingofwallstreet (8) J: Michael Dee57kg 721T: Matt Cumani | ||
| 1. El Castello (16) J: Josh Parr57kg x1111T: Anthony Cummings | ||
| 2. Red Aces (3) J: Jamie Mott57kg 1x021T: Nick Ryan | ||
| 8. King Of Thunder (1) J: James McDonald57kg 23173T: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | ||
| 5. Saint Emilion (5) J: Tim Clark57kg 3711T: Ciaron Maher | ||
| 12. Hot Too Go (11) J: Jordan Childs57kg x7222T: Danny O'Brien | ||
| 3. Keeneland (9) J: Hugh Bowman57kg 42113T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | ||
| 7. Politely Dun (4) J: Damian Lane57kg 23314T: Danny O'Brien | ||
| 9. Tenbury Wells (12) J: Blake Shinn57kg 26115T: Brad Widdup | ||
| 15. West Indies (15) J: Craig Newitt57kg 414T: Mark Walker | ||
| 16. Autumnheat (10) J: Eoin Walsh57kg 44935T: Matt Cumani | ||
| 10. Peru (2) J: Declan Bates57kg 83666T: Michael Moroney & Glen Thompson | ||
| 14. Oxford Blue (14) J: Ethan Brown57kg 313T: Julius Sandhu |
All 2024 Victoria Derby odds are provided by Ladbrokes.com.au, correct at time of publication, and subject to change without notice.
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