Phillip Stokes’ Sir John Monash Stakes winning...
Incentivise remains the firm favourite in Caulfield Cup 2021 betting this weekend, while the early market mover for the world’s richest mile and a half handicap is the Bjorn Baker-trained mare She’s Ideel.
There’s been a slight shake-up to the field for Saturday’s Group 1 $5 million Caulfield Cup (2400m) with the Kiwi galloper Quick Thinker (14) withdrawn due to a tendon injury.
In his place for the Waller stable, the first emergency Great House (2) now gains a start on 50kg.
Winner of the Newcastle Cup two back when defeating Quick Thinker, the Galileo five-year-old was last seen carrying 52kg to a close fifth under two lengths beaten in Sydney’s Group 1 The Metropolitan (2400m).
Having now gained a start in the Caulfield Cup field, Great House is in from $91 to $67 but remains a rank outsider.
Caulfield Cup betting is dominated by Peter Moody’s super stayer Incentivise who has only eased out slightly from $2.45 to $2.60 through Ladbrokes.com.au haver drawing the outside barrier.
Chasing an eighth consecutive win, the Queensland expat gets out to the 2400m for the first time since his 12-length romp home in Brisbane’s Group 3 Tattersall’s Cup in the winter.
He has been brilliant first and second-up for Moody in Melbourne this campaign winning the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m).
Naturally third-up he looks set to improve on those excellent lead-ups and not even the outside alley has stopped the punters from backing this horse to claim the Caulfield Cup with the spring’s in-form hoop Brett Prebble aboard on the equal 55.5kg top-weight.
A surprising early mover in the Caulfield Cup odds has seen one of the mares in the mix, She’s Ideel carrying 52kg from a good gate five draw with Craig Newitt in the saddle.
The six-year-old daughter of Dundeel races at Caulfield for the first time but is proven at the distance and has excellent Soft-track form (6:4-0-2).
Two back she defeated Montefilia in the Group 3 Kingston Town Classic (2000m) before running ninth to that mare in The Metropolitan.
She’s Ideel has been slashed from $67 into $34 to turn the tables on her last start conqueror heading south this weekend.
Montefilia meanwhile is out to complete the interstate The Metropolitan – Caulfield Cup double for the first time since Tawqeet (2006).
David Payne’s class daughter of Kermadec posted her third Group 1 win in the Sydney feature on Epsom Handicap Day after making history last spring as the first filly to take out the Flight Stakes – Spring Champion Stakes double.
She jumps from gate 12 in the Caulfield Cup field with Jye McNeil coming aboard and is at a current quote of $15.
Outside of Incentivise the only other single-figure Caulfield Cup hopeful this season is Delphi at $8 and easing.
He will jump one on the inside of the favourite, the Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes winner to be ridden by Damien Oliver.
The Freedmans also saddle-up the equal 55.5kg top-weight Homesman, the autumn’s Australian Cup winner out to $41 to improve on his lead-up fourth in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m).
Caulfield Stakes runner-up Nonconformist is at $10 to return to winning form and has Craig Williams – two-time Caulfield Cup winner aboard Southern Speed (2011) and Dunaden (2012) – aboard.
Another starter at Caulfield Cup odds of $10 is Young Werther for Melbourne Cup winning trainer Danny O’Brien, the progressive Tavistock four-year-old coming off a half-length second at 25/1 behind Incentivise in the Turnbull Stakes.
Chapada rounded out the Turnbull Stakes trifecta at blowout odds on October 2 at Flemington and is at a roughie’s price again of $81 to come anywhere near as close in the Caulfield Cup results.
New Zealander’s Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman may have lost Quick Thinker from the race but they still have a strong hope line-up with last year’s third placegetter The Chosen One ($13) fit and fourth-up off a Herbert Power second.
Drawn the rails is three-time Derby winner Explosive Jack at $15 for Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, while Edward Cummings’ Coonga Stakes winner on Wednesday Duais ($19) is the last of the runners under $20 to win.
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