The countdown to the Sydney Spring Racing...
The 2018 Australian Guineas steals the show at Flemington Racecourse on Saturday, our detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for the three-years-old mile classic detailed below.
A capacity line-up of youngsters will face off in Flemington Race 7 at 4:30pm (AEDT) when the Group 1 $1 million Australian Guineas (1600m) continues the elite level action of the Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival.
With Hey Doc (2017) the first favourite in Australian Guineas betting since Light Fantastic (2008) to salute for the punters, the pressure is now on this year’s top fancy Cliff’s Edge ($4.20).
Prepared by top Victorian trainer Darren Weir who won the race in 2016 with Palentino, there is early money for Cliff’s Edge whose Australian Guineas odds have firmed in from $4.60 despite a wide barrier 16 draw.
He will move into 15 at best in the 16-starter Australian Guineas field should the two emergencies come out, the Canford Cliffs colt looking to go one better than his lead-up second in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m).
Winner of that key Australian Guineas lead-up, the Mick Price-trained Grunt now chases a fourth victory on the trot and is the $5.50 second favourite before the single-figure hopes are rounded out by the Aaron Purcell’s gun filly Aloisia ($7.50).
2018 Australian Guineas Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Australian Guineas winner was the Tony McEvoy-trained Hey Doc (2017) who saluted for the punters as race favourite and who was ridden to victory by jockey Luke Currie from barrier 1 (of 16) on the back of a lead-up Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes win
- Tony McEvoy chases back-to-back Australian Guineas wins by a trainer for the first time since Mick Price (2008-09) saddling-up #16 Bring Me Roses ($19)
- The other previous Australian Guineas winning trainers with a starter on the weekend are: three-time winning horseman David Hayes with #5 Muraaqeb ($21); dual winner Mick Price with #1 Mighty Boss ($13), #9 Holy Snow ($21) and #11 Grunt ($5.50); Darren Weir with #2 Cliff’s Edge ($4.20) and #13 Peaceful State ($14)
- Last year’s winning hoop Luke Currie is after back-to-back victories aboard #16 Bring Me Roses
- The other previous Australian Guineas winning jockeys with a ride in 2018 are: two-time winner Craig Williams on #8 Addictive Nature, Damien Oliver also chasing a third success on #11 Grunt, Mark Zahra on #15 Aloisia and dual champ Craig Newitt on standby to ride the first emergency #17e Paret
- Last year’s winning barrier (1) has produced three Australian Guineas winners (since 1983) and belongs this year to #16 Bring Me Roses
- The most successful Australian Guineas barriers in that time producing six winners each are 2 and 7; barrier 2 belongs this year to #1 Mighty Boss while gate 7 is drawn by #6 Villermont but will belong to #8 Addictive Nature (8) if the emergencies come out
- Since 1983 only two Australian Guineas winners have jumped from double-digit barriers
- Since 2007 just two fillies have beaten the boys in the Australian Guineas results with Shamrocker (2011) and Mosheen (2012) going back-to-back; the two fillies in the mix this year are #15 Aloisia ($7.50) and #16 Bring Me Roses ($19)
- Favourites in Australian Guineas betting have a poor recent record with Hey Doc (2017) the first since Light Fantastic (2008) to win; #2 Cliff’s Edge ($4.20) is this year’s top fancy
- The CS Hayes Stakes has produced the past three Australian Guineas winners including Wandjina (2015) and Hey Doc (2017) who both officially did the double
- #11 Grunt is after the CS Hayes Stakes – Australian Guineas double in 2018 but has work to do from a wide barrier (17)
- The other CS Hayes Stakes graduates in the Australian Guineas field this year are: Cliff’s Edge (2nd), Muraaqeb (3rd), Main Stage (4th), Embellish (6th) and Peaceful State (7th)
- Along with #11 Grunt the other last start winner in the Australian Guineas 2018 field is #9 Holy Snow (Group 2 Autumn Stakes, 1400m, Caulfield, 10/02/2018)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #11 Grunt (75%) followed by #4 Levendi (50%)
- The best Place Rate of the field also belongs to #11 Grunt (100%) who is yet to finish out of the money followed by #10 Salsamor (86%) and #8 Addictive Nature (83%)
- The previous winners at the Flemington track are: #16 Bring Me Roses (4:1-2-0), #4 Levendi (1:1-0-0), #7 Main Stage (4:1-1-0), #11 Grunt (2:1-0-1) and #15 Aloisia (3:1-0-0)
- #2 Cliff’s Edge (4:0-2-0) is yet to win at Flemington but is a dual runner-up from four starts at the track and #12 Black Sail (3:0-2-0) is also a two-time runner-up at Flemington, while #5 Muraaqeb (2:0-1-1) and #10 Salsamor (1:0-1-0) are yet to finish worse than third at the course
- The previous winners over the distance (1600m) are: #6 Villermont (3:2-0-0), #3 Embellish (2:1-1-0), #15 Aloisia (2:1-1-0), #16 Bring Me Roses (2:1-1-0), #1 Mighty Boss (2:1-0-0), #4 Levendi (2:1-0-0), #2 Cliff’s Edge (1:1-0-0), #7 Main Stage (1:1-0-0) and #11 Grunt (1:1-0-0)
Stay tuned for our insider Australian Guineas 2018 tips, checking out the full race form guide in the meantime below courtesy of Ladbrokes.com.au.
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