The last Group 1 race of the season in Australia...
The 2017 Ladbrokes Cox Plate betting markets have Winx at the shortest priced since Phar Lap in the 1930s as she looks at her third win in the classic, but how do the statistics on favourites in the weight-for-age event stack-up?
Chris Waller’s freakishly talented and versatile Street Cry mare has won her 21 past starts on the trot and will join Black Caviar on 15 Group 1s when she heads to The Valley in Saturday’s Group 1 $3 million Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040m).
She’s been firing on all cylinders again after a couple of early spring hiccups that gave the punters are scare, flawless in her first Flemington assignment winning the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) by over six lengths.
With everything picture perfect since, her affinity with the high-pressure Cox Plate race and tight Moonee Valley track, the ideal barrier six draw and the punters on her side Winx has come into $1.16 at Ladbrokes.com.au to join Kingston Town with the three trophies.
The only other runner in the nine-horse Ladbrokes Cox Plate field getting any kind of attention from the punters is the Tony McEvoy-trained three-year-old Domesday colt Royal Symphony ($21 into $16).
Obviously Winx is the pick to salute in the Cox Plate results on the weekend, but below we look over the historical data to see how the favourites before her have fared.
2017 Cox Plate History: How The Favourites Have Fared
- Since 1983 there has been 13 successful Cox Plate favourites (or equal favourites) including Winx (2015-16)
- Winx ($4.60 in 2015) was the first punters’ pick to salute since So You Think ($1.50) for his second in 2010
- The last time favourites won more than two straight years was 1986-1990 when five won on the trot starting with Bonecrusher ($1.90) and ending with Better Loosen Up ($3)
- Since the race was inaugurated in 1922 the favourites have a 41% strike rate
- Even better for Winx is the imposing 70% winning strike rate of odds-on Cox Plate favourites at less than $2 for the win
- The last odds-on Cox Plate favourite to lose was Lonhro ($1.60, 3rd in 2003) and before him it was Sky High ($144, 3rd in 1961)
- The worst result by a beaten Cox Plate odds-on favourite in history was High Caste ($1.90, 5th in 1939)
- Before Winx the last mare to jump favourite in Cox Plate betting and win was Makybe Diva ($2 in 2005)
- Since Makybe Diva (2005) the other mares that started favourite were: Miss Finland ($4, 4th in 2007) and Samantha Miss ($4.50, 3rd in 2008)
- Phar Lap for his second ($1.07 in 1931) remains the shortest priced favourite in Cox Plate history
- The worst Cox Plate result from a favourite was Naturalism ($2 in 1992) who fell during the race eventually won by Super Impose ($17)
- Naturalism jumped favourite again at $3 in 1993 and ran fourth
- Of the Cox Plate favourites to finish the race since Kingston Town (1980-82) the worst results have been: Emancipation ($4.50EF, 11th in 1983), Shaftesbury Avenue ($12.50, 12th in 1991), Jeune ($4, 13th in 1994), Our Maizcay ($4.50EF, 14th in 1995) and Racing To Win ($3.75, 11th in 2006)
- In the past decade (2007-16) five of the favourites finished out of the Cox Plate trifecta
- Kingston Town was the only dual defending Cox Plate champion to line-up as the favourite for his third attempt
- Of the other dual Cox Plate winners just three others chased a third and all failed, but none of them started favourite in their third
Cox Plate Favourites: Results (Since 1983)
|2013||It’s A Dundeel||4.40||8|
|2010||So You Think||1.50||1|
|2006||Racing To Win||3.75||11|
|1998||Might and Power||1.73||1|
|1990||Better Loosen Up||3.00||1|
|1988||Our Poetic Prince||2.25||1|
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