Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien won the Cox Plate two years ago and is now chasing another Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival major with Sir Isaac Newton lining-up in the 2016 Caulfield Cup field on Saturday.
Four internationals have their first Aussie starts in the $3 million Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) including the O’Brien-trained Galileo stallion Sir Isaac Newton.
The galloper hasn’t won since June, is yet to win over more than 2012m and ran 10th last time out beaten 15 lengths in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes (2012m) but he is still one of the best in betting for Saturday.
Four of the 18 stayers in the Caulfield Cup field this year are under $10 in the latest markets at Ladbrokes.com.au, and Sir Isaac Newton sits just outside of these paying $12.
He has firmed in slightly from an opening quote of $13 to hand O’Brien his first Caulfield Cup trophy, the horseman having won the Cox Plate in 2014 with Adelaide.
O’Brien’s travelling stableman TJ Comerford has warned punters not to discount their stayer based on his last effort against a very tough field, and rates him a winning Caulfield Cup Day chance in easier company on the weekend.
“Sir Isaac Newton didn’t run terrible, though it doesn’t look good on paper, but it was probably one of the best grade I races ran in Europe for the year,” Comerford told The Australian.
“The ground was a little bit easy for him (soft) and he does like the top of the ground.”
So does Sir Isaac Newton have what it takes to atone for that run and take out the Caulfield Cup 2016 at double-figures for the fourth time in five years?
2016 Caulfield Cup Horse Form #5 Sir Isaac Newton
Jockey: Colm O’Donoghue
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Owner/s: Mr D Smith, Mrs S Magnier, Mr M Tabor
Breeding: by Galileo (IRE) from Shastye (IRE)
Last 6: 311440
Prize Money: $430,077
Current 2016 Caulfield Cup Odds: $12
Why Sir Isaac Newton Can Score an Upset 2016 Caulfield Cup Result
- He is drawn the ideal alley with barrier nine producing more Caulfield Cup winners than any other barrier (since 1983) including most recently Railings (2005)
- He can be forgiven for his last start run in a race that subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Found (2nd) and runner-up Highland Reel (7th) both graduated out of
- He drops from 60.5kg last start to 55kg in the Caulfield Cup weights, exact kilos carried to victory by two of the past three winners of the race
- Five of the seven most recent Caulfield Cup winners carried 55kg or more to victory
- Jockey Colm O’Donoghue travels for the ride and knows the galloper well
- Internationals have plenty of Caulfield Cup winning form in recent years
- Stallions have won six of the past 10 editions of the race
- His only run over the distance (2400m) was unplaced (4th) but brave when beaten 4.5 lengths by Highland Reel in the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot
- His price ($12) is historically spot-on with three of the past four Caulfield Cup winners jumping at odds of $10 – $12
Why Sir Isaac Newton Is Not a Caulfield Cup Winning Chance
- Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never saddled-up a Caulfield Cup starter
- Only has a winning strike rate of 25%
- Is one of the lowest-earners of the field
- Has no previous race experience in Australia
- Is yet to win over further than 2012m
If you fancy the form on Sir Isaac Newton to win the Caulfield Cup 2016 bet on him now at Ladbrokes.com.au – home of Enhanced Odds (T&Cs apply).