Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
A star-studded field of local hopes, international raiders and imported champions lines up at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday in The BMW 2015, betting tips for which are detailed below.
Due to jump as Rosehill Race 7 at 4:30pm (AEDT) the early scratching of Rising Romance, heat found on the Kiwi mare’s heel, leaves a field of 11 to face off in this year’s $1.5 million Group 1 The BMW (2400m).
Of the remaining gallopers the firming favourite in The BMW odds at Ladbrokes.com.au is Japan’s To The World ($2.25) drawn in gate six for Nicholas Hall to ride.
His form back home is imposing and is highlighted by a second to Gentildonna in the Group 1 Arima Kinen (2500m) in December when racing better than his $31 price suggested to be beaten under a length.
Out to stop the international raid are a host of top rivals including the $3.40 second elect in The BMW betting markets Hartnell.
The imported British expat represents Godolphin and their private trainer John O’Shea and comes off a Group 3 Sky High Stakes (2000m) win at the track.
Also second to stablemate The Contributer in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) in his Aussie debut two back, the progressive four-year-old has a nice barrier three drawn and James McDonald staying on.
So are the top two The BMW fancies the ones to lock into the quinella on Saturday or will there be an upset from a longer priced hope such as the Kris Lees-trained duo of Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist ($8.50) and proven weight-for-age performer Lucia Valentina ($9), or the defending champ Silent Achiever ($13)?
#9 Silent Achiever ($13)
While all the money is on the Japanese raider (To The World) and the British import (Hartnell) we think Silent Achiever has been overlooked here. She won the Ranvet Stakes – The BMW last autumn and was far from disgraced last start when fourth in the same lead-up race, which has produced seven of the past 10 The BMW winners. Tie The Knot (1999 – 2000) was the last dual The BMW winner, but Kiwi mare is smart and has the ability to break the hoodoo. Mares have a decent record in the race with three winning since 2005, she’s proven at WFA, proven in this race, proven in this company and not in bad form. Worth a punt.
#1 Protectionist ($8.50)
Lees saddles-up two livewire chances here with Lucia Valentina and this reigning Melbourne Cup winner. German import Protectionist blew away his rivals in the world’s richest handicap over two miles in the spring and has had two runs since this autumn. In both he finished out of the money but that wasn’t unexpected according to Lees who was far from confident. Now there’s more distance for his star stayer and he’ll be improving. Has the second best Win Rate (42%) and a good Place Rate (61%), is a winner over the distance and could surprise.
#8 Hartnell ($3.40)
Far from hating on the favourite we think it’ll be close, but have to go with Hartnell over To The World for the final place. Money is starting to come for the progressive import who has had just the two runs down under for a Group 1 second and a Group 3 win at Rosehill making him one of only four in this field with a previous win at the track. Good 40% Win Rate and top 73% Place Rate.
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*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change
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