A small but top class field of star sprinters faces off in the 2015 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington Racecourse on Saturday, a full form guide preview and betting analysis on the season’s latest Group 1 showdown detailed below.
Only six final acceptors make up the field for this year’s $500,000 Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m), but there is no shortage of talent in the mix for the Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival feature.
Two gallopers at different stages of their career are batting for favouritism in the Ladbrokes.com.au Black Caviar Lightning Stakes betting markets.
Winning the war at this stage is the lightly-raced Team Hawkes-trained four-year-old Deep Field.
The Northern Meteor entire is out to prove himself here having won all five of his previous starts but only up to Group 2 company.
He’s first-up here and returns to the track he won over on Victoria Derby Day last November without an official trial but with plenty of support paying $2.30 to win and stamp himself as one of the headline sprinters of the season.
Already well proven is then his main rival Lankan Rupee at $2.40 to post his fifth Group 1 victory.
The Mick Price-trained five-year-old won the Oakleigh Plate – Newmarket Handicap double in Melbourne around this time last year before his TJ Smith Stakes success in Sydney to round out his autumn.
He also won the Manikato Stakes in Melbourne during the spring and was last seen running third to Terravista in the Darley Classic on November 8, his last start conqueror the equal highest rated sprinter in the world along with Lankan Rupee.
The only other real danger according to the bookies is Chris Waller’s Coolmore Stud Stakes winning three-year-old Brazen Beau at $5 to win first-up for the third time in his fourth run when fresh, the colt getting the three kilo advantage over his rivals.
That’s the story the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes odds are telling, but what about the form guide and race history?
2015 Black Caviar Lightning Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Lightning Stakes winner was the Gerald Ryan-trained mare Snitzerland who jumped from barrier nine (of 12) with Brenton Avdulla in the saddle first-up
- Snitzerland was the ninth Lightning Stakes winner in the past 10 years to do so first-up from a spell
- There are three first-up runners this year with #1 Lankan Rupee ($2.40), #5 Deep Field ($2.30) and #6 Brazen Beau ($5) who dominate the markets
- The last start winners in the race are #3 Fab Fevola (Benchmark 78, 955m, Moonee Valley, 06/02/2015), #5 Deep Field (Group 2 TAB.com.au Stakes, 1200m, Flemington, 01/11/2014) and #6 Brazen Beau (Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, 1200m, Flemington, 01/11/2015)
- The most successful Lightning Stakes barriers since 1983 with five winners each are 2 and 5 that belong this year to #6 Brazen Beau (2) and #5 Deep Field (5)
- Mares have dominated the Lightning Stakes in recent history winning the past four editions with Black Caviar (2011-13) and then Snitzerland (2014); no mares are in the mix this year
- Three-year-olds enjoyed a lovely run with six wins between 1998 and 2005 – Fastnet Rock (2005) the last of that age group to win
- #6 Brazen Beau is looking to be the first in the past 10 years then to win
- More recently four-year-olds have been most successful in the race with four wins since 2009 with Scenic Blast (2009), Nicconi (2010), Black Caviar (2011) and Snitzerland (2014)
- Four-year-olds looking to add to that record this year are #4 The Quarterback ($26) and the favourite #5 Deep Field
- Undefeated #5 Deep Field obviously boasts the highest Win Rate (100%) followed by #1 Lankan Rupee (50%) and #6 Brazen Beau (50%)
- #5 Deep Field also boasts a perfect Place Rate followed by #1 Lankan Rupee (80%) and #6 Brazen Beau (75%) again
- Over the distance the horses with the best record are: #1 Lankan Rupee (7-4-2-1), #4 The Quarterback (4-2-0-1) and #2 Watermans Bay (3-1-1-0)
- At Flemington those with the best record are: #1 Lankan Rupee (6-2-1-1), #4 The Quarterback (7-2-0-3), #5 Deep Field (1-1-0-0) and #6 Brazen Beau (2-1-0-0)
- Previous winners over the track and distance are then: #4 The Quarterback (3-2-0-1) and #1 Lankan Rupee (2-1-1-0)
Favourites have a 50% strike rate in the past 10 years with five winners, a statistic inflated by Black Caviar’s three straight wins for the punters
Use the above Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 2015 must know facts to place a winning bet on the big one on Saturday online at Ladbrokes.com.au who are offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on your winnings for the race!