Horse Racing

It’s a busy day for racing this weekend at Caulfield Racecourse. Guineas Day kicks off on Saturday featuring four Group One races. The 2014 Caulfield Stakes will see potential stayers enjoy a test-run for the Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) on October 25.

The $400,000 Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) is already being billed as a mini-Cox Plate seeing as the top four betting favourites for the Cox Plate are all running in the Stakes this Saturday.

All four of those runners are leading the betting markets with single figure odds through Ladbrokes.com.au, led by Sacred Falls and Dissident at $4.20.

The Chris Waller-trained Sacred Falls has drawn wide in barrier 12 but is still a favourite to bring home the Caulfield Stakes following a first-place in the Group 1 Geo Main Stakes (1600m) his last time out. This multiple Group One winner has experience over the distance of the Caulfield Stakes, which gives him an advantage over Dissident who’ll be given his first real test after stepping up from 1400m.

Peter Moody believes his horse will successfully make the trip up in distance after winning two of his last three starts, and coming runner-up in the third, all of which were at Group One level.

They are followed in the Caulfield Stakes odds by three other single figure hopefuls: reigning Caulfield Cup champion Fawkner ($5.50), who finished second in the Makybe Diva Stakes his last time out, Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) runner-up Happy Trails ($8.80), and Dear Demi ($9.50), the only non-Cox Plate favourite offering single figure odds after drawing barrier one which means she’ll enjoy the inside run.

That’s who the bookies are tipping to win but what does the race’s history and form have to say?

2014 Caulfield Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats

• The Caulfield Stakes is regarded as the major-lead race to the Cox Plate, with nine of the 12 Caulfield runners competing for a place
• Despite the lucrative prize money, there is seldom more than nine starters which hints at this year’s field getting some scratchings
• Last year’s Caulfield Stakes winner was the Mark Kavanagh-trained Atlantic Jewel from barrier 5 (of 5) with Michael Rodd in the saddle
• The most successful trainers are Bart Cummings with 3 wins from 16 starts and Mark Kavangh with three wins from five starts since 1983
• The combination of small field and weight-for-age conditions makes favourites a good betting prospect, seven of the last 13 have won
• The most successful jockey since 1983 is Damien Oliver with four wins from 15 rides
• Oliver will ride #4 Happy Trails ($8.80) in this year’s Caulfield Stakes
• Last year’s winning barrier (5) has been drawn by #2 Side Glance ($19)
• The most successful barriers are five (7 wins) and six (6 wins) which this year have been drawn by Side Glance and Happy Trails
• Only five winners have started from gate seven or wider since 1983 though be wary of this statistic as the Caulfield Stakes does not attract big fields
• #5 Foreteller (Group 1 Underwood Stakes, 1800m, Caulfield, 20/09/2014), #1 Sacred Falls (Group 1 George Main Stakes,1600m, Royal Randwick, 20/09/2014), and #11 Dear Demi (Group 2 Stocks Stakes, 1600m, Moonee Valley, 26/09/2014) are all last-start winners
• But choosing the Caulfield Stakes winner can be tough for punters, in the past 12 years only three last start winners have won

• #5 Foreteller (1^st), #4 Happy Trails (2^nd), and #7 Crackerjack King (3^rd) are all backing up from the Underwood
• Two of the last 12 winners ventured south from Sydney after the George Main, which is good news for #1 Sacred Falls (1^st)
• The horse with the highest Win Rate is #7 Crackerjack King (54%) followed by #1 Sacred Falls (41%) and #10 Dissident (31%)
• The horse with the best Place Rate is #3 Fawkner (70%) followed by Dissident (69%) and #6 Sertorius (67%)
• The entries with the best Caulfield track record are: #5 Foreteller (9-3-1-0), #4 Happy Trails (7-1-2-0), #10 Dissident (6-2-1-1), and #6 Sertorius (5-2-2-0)
• The only entry to win over the same track & distance as the Caulfield Stakes is #5 Foreteller (2-1-1-0)

Races.com.au will post our 2014 Caulfield Stakes tips shortly so keep checking back!

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