Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The punters will be sticking around at the refurbished Royal Randwick this Australian Derby Day awaiting the last on the card when the mighty mare Black Caviar makes her presence known in the 2013 TJ Smith Stakes – betting tips and selections from the Races.com.au team for which are detailed below.
Peter Moody’s genius six-year-old has been the biggest thing to happen to Australian racing in this lifetime and the legend will continue in Race 9 on Saturday when Black Caviar vies for an incredible 25th straight turf triumph in the $1 million Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes (1200m).
Yes she faces some stiffer competition than her recent breezy wins, yes it’s been two years since she raced in Sydney, yes she can be had for $1.12 in the TJ Smith Stakes odds which is her longest starting price in 24 months.
No she won’t be beaten.
Ignoring the hype that Black Caviar may be vulnerable here we are looking at the stats, facts and the history on this equine celebrity and really only extreme bad luck or tragedy will see the $7 million earner go down in this.
#9 Black Caviar ($1.12)
- Take the $1.12 now because this champion is going to shorten
- Undefeated with an historic 25 consecutive career wins to her name giving her a perfect 100% Win & Place rate
- Current co-record holder of most Group 1 wins down under at 14
- Comes off back-to-back elite levels in Melbourne including her record breaking Lightning win first-up
- Won this race emphatically over Hay List when he was at his best two years ago
- Handles the Sydney way of going
- Arrived safe and sound and working well ahead of the race
- Going as good as ever, if not better
- Is a freakish, once-in-a-generation talent
- Drawn on the rails in barrier one
- 1200m specialist boasting 17 wins from as many starts over the distance
- Six-year-olds have the best record of any age with three wins in the past decade so she’s the right age
- Track conditions are the query but Moody will scratch her out if the rain comes and you’ll get your money back
- Should we continue with the superlatives? Just look at the record and get on her now
#2 Bel Sprinter ($9)
- Second pick in these markets for a reason
- Nice draw with gate two where they will follow Black Caviar and Nolen up off the fence all the way to the line
- Broke a six month drought with a slashing first-up win in the Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m) keeping their record when fresh flawless (five form five)
- Won The Galaxy by three and a half lengths having come from the back of the field from a horror draw (11 of 13) with a blistering late burst the real eye-catching component of that performance – which they will need here
- Things are going to go there way a lot better here but Black Caviar and WFA when going up from 53.5kg up to 58.5kg
Hay List ($26)
- Adds value to the Trifecta
- Knows how to run second to Black Caviar having played second fiddle to the queen four times before including this race two years ago
- Injury-prone but if they are spot on can be very competitive
- Drawn wide in nine but if the track is a little choppy this could work in their favour
- Will be fitter after their resuming run off a year break when fourth to Snitzerland in the Challenge Stakes
- Extra 200m here will help and while they couldn’t match the filly first-up, Snitzerland did win in record time
- Many have discontinued their love for this hulking sprinter but we think he could surprise under WFA second-up
Think we’ve got the TJ Smith Stakes trifecta spot on and want to lock it in at the country’s best bookie? Head to bookmaker.com.au now and access all the weekend’s best racing markets including the awesome Pick option where you can improve the Fixed Win price on your favourites such as Black Caviar to get them out of odds-on territory!
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