It’s because he’s on a bad horse though with Beaded probably one of the most desirably rides in the country.
She’s a mare that gives her best in every run and the jockeys know she’ll respond when they ask her to step it up a notch.
For Brown to overcome Hay List though he’s going to need perfect execution and plenty of luck as well.
“I think the key to the race is Border Rebel, he can dictate to Hay List where he wants him,” he said. (Border Rebel gate one, Hay List gate two)
“Obviously Hay List is the best horse in the field and he doesn’t have to lead.”
Like most of the field Beaded is a horse that likes to get back in the pack so if the favourite dictates his own terms out in front he’ll be practically impossible to catch.
What Brown and the other riders are sweating on is that Border Rebel or perhaps Buffering take the race to Hay List and put the pace on early.
There’s no question about the heart of Beaded though and it’s a horse Brown is more than pleased to be riding.
“I hoped off and said to Peter you’d love a stable full of them, she gives 110 percent every time she steps onto a racecourse,” he said.
“There should be good speed on so hopefully she’ll get back and get a good run.”
She’s a horse that rarely misses a place and she’ll be there at the finish, how far away though remains to be seen.
“I’ve got no doubt she’ll run well, whether or not she’s good enough to beat Hay List we’ll find out tomorrow,” he said.
Also working against Beaded is a tricky gate with barrier seven meaning Brown will have to push his way across to get someone near the fence.
“I’d love to be in the one one myself, if not following Hay List,” he said.
“The horses that are back markers like Sniper’s Bullet and Black Piranha, Black Piranha is on my inside but Sniper’s Bullet is outside me,” he said.
“I’ll just hover in the second half of the field and keep an eye on Hay List.”
A win on Beaded in the Doomben 10,000 would be a massive achievement for Brown and could be part of a group of victories.
He has two other great chances coming up in the form of Peck and Fanjura, both of which were very unlucky last start and are in tremendous form.