Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
An impressive field of 16 starters plus four emergencies make up this year’s 2011 Australian Guineas field with Kiwi filly We Can Say It Now the favourite in the Guineas odds, so here the Races.com.au team take a look at the chances the punters’ pick has of winning on Saturday.
The $750,000 Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) highlights a top race-card at Flemington this Saturday March 5 and is scheduled to run as Race 6 at 4:05pm (AEDST).
After the final field for the Australian Guineas was released this morning, We Can Say It Now remained at the top of the betting markets at a quote of $6 through Luxbet.
Prepared in New Zealand by Murray & Bjorn Baker, We Can Say It Now is a star on her home turf having won four of her eight career starts including two Group 1 events.
Last year the speedy daughter of Starcraft won back-to-back Group 1 races over the mile in NZ including the Captain Cook Stakes by an impressive four lengths.
First-up this year We Can Say It Now ran a convincing fifth behind King Mufhasa in the Group 1 Waikato Draught Sprint (1400m) on February 12.
Her good form over the mile means We Can Say It Now continues to gain support from the punters to become the 2011 Australian Guineas winner despite not having raced on Aussie turf before or faced any of her Guineas rivals before.
So will the favourite salute or can one of the other quality three-year-olds such as in-form Ascot galloper Playing God, last start CS Hayes Stakes winner Bullbars or unbeaten filly Southern Speed claim an upset in the Australian Guineas 2011 on Saturday?
Why We Can Say It Now Can Win the 2011 Australian Guineas
– Has drawn barrier 12 and a little wider suits this big filly who needs room to race
– Is one of the three fillies in the field meaning she carries just 53.5kg – We Can Say It Now has carried up to 57kg to victory
– In-form hoop Craig Williams is booked for the ride who won the Australian Guineas aboard Miss Finland in 2007
– Good record over the Australian Guineas distance of 1600m with two wins from three starts over the mile
– Has a good second-up record of one win and a second from two attempts
– May not have raced in Australia but has had two promising gallops at Flemington in preparation for the Guineas
– Proven performer against older horses
Why She Can’t
– Even if she moves into barrier 10 with the emergencies not gaining a start on Saturday, history is against We Can Say It Now as no Australian Guineas has won from a double-digit barrier
– Her Group 1 victories were over much weaker fields than she faces here
– We Can Say It Now ran fifth last-start and no Australian Guineas winner has come off a worse than fourth place finish at their most recent run
– Fourteen fillies have contested the Australian Guineas over 1600m and only two have been successful – Triscay (1991) and Miss Finland (2007)
– No New Zealand-trained horse has won the Australian Guineas to date
To back the favourite in the Australian Guineas or to tip an upset with a longer-priced contender head to Luxbet for the guaranteed best Australian Guineas odds and wagering options!
2011 Australian Guineas Horse Form
#15 We Can Say It Now (12)
(by Starcraft from We Can’t Say That)
- Weight: 53.5kg
- Trainers: Murray & Bjorn Baker (Cambridge NZ)
- Jockey: Craig Williams
- Prize Money: $244,386
- Career: 8-4-1-0
- 1600m: 3-2-0-0
- Win %: 50
- Place %: 63
- Current Australian Guineas Odds: $6 Luxbet
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