Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The race all punters and racing fans have been waiting for is now just hours away with the 2010 Melbourne Cup set to run as Race 7 at Flemington at 3:00pm (AEDST) this afternoon. There are 23 horses in the Melbourne Cup field and to help you pick the winner of the iconic $6 million handicap, below is a 2010 Melbourne Cup form guide detailing the chance of each runner.
#1 Shocking – $12 Luxbet
Shocking won the Melbourne Cup 12 months ago and has improved since then. There will be speed inside today, and jockey Michael Rood should have Shocking sitting back with cover. In form and can handle all conditions, is a top chance to finish off the faders in the final 300m if they can find a good position from their wide barrier draw.
# 2 Campanologist – $71 Luxbet
This rep from the Godolphin stables just looks to have a little too much weight with 56kg today. Their Group 1 wins in Germany were against pretty average competition, and although they have form on this type of ground could struggle against the stars with their weight.
# 3 So You Think – $3 Luxbet
So You Think looks a good thing on paper and if you follow they money and hype has already been crowned the winner. The star four-year-old looked 85% fit in their second successive Cox Plate victory and then 95% fit in a blitzing Mackinnon Stakes win last week. Will peak today sire and even though the distance is unknown he is from High Chaparral so this alone should see him get to the distance. If he pulls and gets up on the speed early could over-race and blow chances – needs to settle and avoid trouble. But trust in the greatest Melbourne cup trainer of all time.
# 4 Zipping – $26 Luxbet
Lloyd Williams’ Zipping is in career best form at nine-years-old. A genuine racehorse that continues to put in big runs and is a genuine chance. Luckless in his previous Melbourne Cup runs, good Flemington form this year and wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish in the money.
# 5 Illustrious Blue – $61 Luxbet
Has been around, specialist at Goodwood track but how will he handle Flemington? Should finish in top 10 but wouldn’t include in the first four.
# 6 Mr Medici – $61 Luxbet
Hong Kong runner has adapted well to Australia. Caulfield Cup run was good from wide but 3200m will find him out.
# 7 Shoot Out – $31 Luxbet
Shoot Out is another High Chaparral so should have the distance in them even though they have only one run past 2000m in the AJC. Sentimental favourite with the Queenslanders and looks good for Trifecta picks, great honest chance – barrier could be a problem if covered midfield.
# 8 Americain – # 13 Luxbet
Americain had a big weight in Geelong and won impressively. A very progressive horse, two French wins over 3000m can sit back and sprint home to finish in the money. Include.
#9 Tokai Trick – #91 Luxbet
Japan’s first Cup runner since 2006. Didn’t handle ground in Caulfield Cup looks past his best at nine.
#10 Buccellati – #251 Luxbet
Hasn’t won since last year, a couple of years over their prime. Wet will be advantage but isn’t good enough.
# 11 Descarado – $14 Luxbet
Brave Mackinnon run, Caulfield Cup win was strong and is another High Chaparral. If track gets to heavy would look better, so watch conditions and include in Trifectas if ground rain-affected.
# 12 Harris Tweed – $26 Luxbet
Kiwi galloper well suited to conditions. Courageous in Caulfield. Had a bout of colic after but recovered quickly – preferred on heavy track but include in all multiples.
#13 Manighar – $23 Luxbet
Cumani’s sole rep after Bauer ruled out. Won plenty in France but is a quirky horse that doesn’t always focus and has an awkward gate. Rough chance.
#14 Master O’Reilly – $201 Luxbet
Could be final race. 25 runs since last win. Was fourth to Shocking last year but not going as well this year.
#15 Monaco Consul – $34 Luxbet
Derby winner last year. Wet track better – few ordinary runs here at Flemington. Questionable but still fancy in exotics.
#16 Profound Beauty – $26 Luxbet
Combination of barrier 22 and jockey Pat Smullen means she likely won’t get near the rail. Has won six from nine since 2008 fifth place Melbourne Cup, if she can get cover she can finish in the money at good odds.
#17 Zavite – $126 Luxbet
Flops in Group 1 company, don’t rate.
#19 Holberg – $19 Luxbet
Good horse, improving stayer and is tested for this run. Has beaten Manighar by six first up off 12 month break a few starts back. Interesting, should be considered.
# 20 Precedence – $23 Luxbet
Key is for him to settle, just starting to show form, legitimate chance if he gets a good run and has the Bart factor.
#21 Red Ruler – $301 Luxbet
Good NZ form, but no chance here.
#22 Linton – $26 Luxbet
Needs to develop physically and maturity wise, but is still a main chance. Couldn’t beat Maluckyday in Lexus not seasoned enough for 3200m win.
#23 Once Were Wild – $26 Luxbet
Nice light weight, on pace, could lead at some stage, but looks a little outclassed. She’s tested but is a mare so history against.
#24 Maluckday – $8.50 Luxbet
Impressive in Lexus, sat at back and zipped past them. Was on a firm track so untested on a slower track. Won’t win – can place.
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