For months, all the newspapers and TV commentators have been saying that next year the 2011 Melbourne cup will be Linton’s year. No faith in a win this year, but next year will be Linton’s.

They probably have a point, he has only 7 race starts winning 3 of them and placing another 3. By the time the Lexus Stakes has been run and won he would have only travelled 7,600 meters this preparation, and all the good judges say you have to go over 10,000 meters. They say he doesn’t have the experience to win the cup but surely they are not forgetting the Lloyd Williams factor.

Lloyd only wants to win the Melbourne Cup. He has done it three times before in 1981 with Just a Dash, What a Nuisance in 1985 and, of course, the great horse Efficient in 2007. He has loaded up his stables with horses that are big enough, strong enough and bred to win the Melbourne Cup at times his training methods are not the traditional Australian way they probably are more in line with the English way of training to some degree but the English are the best in training stayers.

Linton is a 4 year old gelding he is by super sire of stayers in Galileo from the New Zealand-bred mare Our Heather with the sensational staying family. Lloyd has been patient, the horse has had an uninterrupted preparation, and he is a very nice horse with fresh strong legs. We agree with the media that next year will certainly be his year, but we also think this year can be Linton’s too. His biggest risk is missing the cut and not getting into the field this year.

Currently quoted $31 for the cup, if Linton wins the Lexus today he will be into an $8 chance. Given he really has to win today to make the cup field the $5 on offer with Luxbet right now seems like a very good price. After all, we do know he will be trying to win the race and the jockey wont be cuddling him up waiting for Tuesday – he needs to win today.