The punters are coming for the Joe Pride-trained...
A bumper line-up of three-year-old stayers do battle at Royal Randwick this Saturday in the 2018 Australian Derby, a detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for which can be found below.
It is a full field of 18 plus two emergencies engaged in this autumn’s Group 1 $2 million Australian Derby (2400m), betting on the mile and a half classic at Ladbrokes.com.au led by Ace High ($5).
The David Payne-trained High Chaparral colt shapes-up as the fittest horse in the race having been up since early February with four runs this time in.
He chases his first victory since Flemington’s Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m) during the Melbourne Cup Carnival last November and finally gets back up to that distance this weekend.
His latest lead-up produced a sixth when three lengths beaten by the winner D’Argento, who drops back in distance for a shot at the older horses in Saturday’s Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m), in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m).
The Rosehill Guineas form line has been the one to follow into the Australian Derby over the past 20 years and the last winner of the latter to come out of the race was Mongolian Khan (5th in 2015).
Despite the full field of hopeful young stayers there are only two other single-figure fancies in the latest Australian Derby betting markets with the progressive Kris Lees-trained Pierro gelding Furore ($7.50) coming off a Rosehill Guineas third and the NZ Derby winner Vin De Dance ($9) who is one of four in the mix for last year’s winning trainers from across the Tasman Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman.
To uncover where the value might be at in the markets for Saturday below we go over the full Australian Derby 2018 form guide, betting history and statistical data.
2018 ATC Derby Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Australian Derby winner was the Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman-trained Jon Snow (2017) who backed-up from a win in the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) and was ridden to victory from barrier 9 (of 13) with Damian Lane in the saddle of the $7.50 shot
- Co-trainer Murray Baker has prepared a total of four Australian Derby winners and is back in 2018 looking for a fifth (second in partnership with Forsman) with four runners: #2 Vin De Dance ($9), #10 Weather With You ($21), #12 Mission Hill ($11) and #15 Mongolian Marshal ($19)
- The other previous Australian Derby winning trainers with a starter on Saturday are: David Payne with the favourite #1 Ace High ($5); and Trent Busuttin with #9 Salsamor ($19), #14 Belfast ($10) and #16 Main Stage ($51)
- Since 2008 five Kiwi raiders have won the Australian Derby and along with the Baker & Forsman quartet the other NZ-trained chance in the race this year looking to continue the trend is #4 Mongolianconqueror ($13)
- Last year’s winning hoop Damian Lane chases back-to-back Australian Derby wins as a jockey for the first time since Darryl Beadman (2006-07) on #12 Mission Hill
- The other previous Australian Derby winning jockeys with a ride on the weekend are: Opie Bosson on #4 Mongolianconqueror, Corey Brown on #11 The Lord Mayor ($26) and Damien Oliver on early market mover #13 Endowment ($71 into $31)
- Last year’s winning barrier (9) has produced just two Australian Derby winners (since 1983) and is drawn this year by #12 Mission Hill but will have #3 Tangled (10) coming in if the two emergencies fail to gain a start
- No Australian Derby winner has jumped from wider than barrier nine since Roman Emperor (16 of 16 in 2009)
- The most successful Australian Derby barrier (since 1983) producing seven winners is gate eight drawn this year by #8 Furore ($7.50) but it will be #12 Mission Hill (9) coming in with emergencies out
- The next most successful alley in that time with six wins is barrier one that has produced three of the past four ATC Derby winners and that belongs this year to #10 Weather With You
- Since 2006 just two favourites in Australian Derby betting have saluted for the punters with Criterion (2014) the latest; #1 Ace High ($5) is the ATC Derby favourite in 2018 out to be the next
- The other single-figure hopes in the ATC Derby odds this year are #8 Furore ($7.50) and #2 Vin De Dance ($9)
- Three of the past five ATC Derby winners came off a lead-up win; #6 Levendi ($12) is the only last start winner in the field this year
- #6 Levendi (Group 2 Tulloch Stakes, 2000m, Rosehill, 31/03/2018) is on the quick seven day back-up chasing the Tulloch Stakes – ATC Derby double Jon Snow won last year
- The Rosehill Guineas has produced more Australian Derby winners in the past 20 years than any other lead-up
- The Rosehill Guineas graduates in Saturday’s ATC Derby are: Tangled (2nd), Furore (3rd), Vin De Dance (4th), Ace High (6th), Mission Hill (7th), Mongolianconqueror (8th), Capital Gain (10th), The Lord Mayor (11th), Main Stage (12th), Condor (13th) and Endowment (16th)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #8 Furore (80%) followed by #12 Mission Hill (50%) and #6 Levendi (44%)
- The best Place Rate of the field belongs to #8 Furore (100%) who is yet to finish out of the money followed by #7 Astoria (69%)
- #1 Ace High (7:1-0-0) is the only horse in the Australian Derby field with previous winning form at the Randwick track
- The horses with previous winning form at the distance are #1 Ace High (1:1-0-0 over 2500m) and #2 Vin De Dance (1:1-0-0)
Stay tuned for our insider Australian Derby 2018 tips, checking out the comprehensive race form guide below in the meantime courtesy of Ladbrokes.com.au.
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