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The Caulfield Cup 2017 tips are flooding in ahead of the opening leg of the Spring Cups double on Saturday and history shows the four-year-old horses in the mix are statistically the best to back.
There are 17 hopefuls in the Group 1 $3 million BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) this year, the race running under the 18-starter capacity after the withdrawal of injured Japanese import Admire Deus on Tuesday morning.
Of the confirmed Caulfield Cup horses there are four four-year-old fancies looking to add to the imposing record of this age group from the past 30 plus years.
Since 1983 there have been 18 Caulfield Cup winning four-year-olds including the past two on the trot with Mongolian Khan (2015) and Jameka (2016) both also starting favourite.
The last time a trio of four-year-olds won the Caulfield Cup in successive years was 2003-05 and before that it was 1999-2001, with only the then six-year-old Fred Kersley-trained Northerly (2002) ruining the run.
It is an open edition of the mile and a half classic this weekend, with Aidan O’Brien’s Irish raider Johannes Vermeer ($4.20) leading the latest Caulfield Cup odds after a lead-up second in the Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m) just last Saturday.
Below though we have a look at the four-year-old chances in Caulfield Cup betting to decide if ATC Derby winner Jon Snow, the Hawkes Racing-trained Inference, one-time favourite Bonneval or the roughie hope Hardman are a winning chance.
#4 JON SNOW
Verdict: Brings into the race the same form as the stable’s 2015 winner and is a live-wire hope at a nice price.
Breeding: by Iffraaj from Orinda
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (NZ)
Owners: Zame Partnership
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Lead-Up Run: 3rd, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017
- Proven over the Caulfield Cup distance having won Sydney’s ATC Derby over 2400m as a 3YO in the autumn
- Five runs in on Saturday so presents fit and ready to fire in good form
- Moonee Valley Group 3 JRA Cup winner two back
- Lead-up third in the Ladbrokes Stakes was eye-catching
- Stablemate Mongolian Khan (2015) won the Caulfield Cup as a 4YO two years back off a Ladbrokes Stakes third
- Drops from 58kg last weekend to 54.5kg
- Stephen Baster is his regular rider this spring and knows the stallion well
- Step-up in distance suits and has Caulfield race experience
- Barrier 6 is a nice draw also producing Mongolian Khan to victory for the stable
Verdict: Would need to be improving notably to turn the tables on those ahead of him in the Ladbrokes Stakes last weekend.
Breeding: by So You Think from Pontiana
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Owners: Mr L P Maxsted, Mr P C Maxsted, G P I Racing, Mr S J Tuxen, Ms K N Cooper, Mr P K Allen, Mrs C D Allen, Mr G J Hayes
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Lead-Up Run: 5th, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017
- Well-bred being a son of dual Cox Plate winner So You Think
- Co-trainer John Hawkes won the race with then four-year-old Railings (2005)
- Jockey Dwayne Dunn rode Tawqeet (2006) to victory in the race and has been on Inference for his three spring runs
- Steadily improving each time out this season
- Only 2.35 lengths off Bonneval two back when sixth in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m)
- Fifth in the Caulfield Stakes last weekend beaten four lengths
- Yet to win over further than a mile
- Needs to improve to turn the tables on the horses that beat him home last Saturday
- No Caulfield Cup winner has finished worse than fourth since 2010
- Hasn’t won a race since the Randwick Guineas in the wet on March 4
- Only the one third place from three previous Caulfield starts
- Enjoys big drop from 58kg to 53.5kg
- Jumps from barrier 11, which produced Jameka for her win last year
Verdict: Can atone for the Ladbrokes Stakes loss and return the 4YO mares to winning Caulfield Cup form with luck from the gate.
Breeding: by Makfi from Imposingly
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (NZ)
Owners: Mr A R Lawrence, Mr J A Rattray, Mr T W Jarvis
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Lead-Up Run: 6th, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017
- One-time favourite but on the drift in Caulfield Cup betting after her loss last weekend and the wide draw
- Only 4YO mare in the field and they have won the Caulfield Cup seven times (since 1983) including Jameka (2016) last year
- Mares haven’t won back-to-back Caulfield Cups since Let’s Elope (1991) and Mannerism (1992)
- Stablemate of Jon Snow representing the 2015 Caulfield Cup winning stable
- Jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides her for the first time but won the race on All The Good (2008)
- She’s a dual winner over the 2400m having done the NZ Oaks – ATC Oaks double as a filly
- Barrier 14 hasn’t produced a winner in over 30 years but five of the past eight saluted from a double-digit draw
Verdict: There are better horses to get behind and doesn’t have the right lead-up form to suggest a win.
Breeding: by Redoute’s Choice from Nureyev’s Girl
Trainer: David Brideoake
Owners: Mrs S A Moody, Mr M J Bradley, Sir P Hogan, Mr M J Davidson, Mr S Derry, Mr M Fleming, Mrs K Fleming, Mr R J Patterson, Mr E Savaglia, Dr G Tsoi Wai Wang, Krualaya, Tomadachi, Ms R L Cormie, Kahos Racing
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Lead-Up Run: 2nd, Inglis Cup (2000m), Caulfield, 01/10/2017
- One of the roughies currently at the same Caulfield Cup odds All The Good (40/1 in 2008) scored the upset at
- Carries 52.5kg the same weight three four-year-olds have saluted with since 2010
- Craig Newitt jumps back on for the first time since September last year but has form on the horse
- Comes off a non-traditional lead-up and the Inglis Cup form is hard to follow
- Was beaten odd-on favourite last time out
- Races in Group 1 company for the first time since the ATC Derby third to Jon Snow in the autumn
- Was under a length beaten in the ATC Derby over the Caulfield Cup distance 2400m
- Comes back from 57.5kg last time out
- Has had five starts at Caulfield for two placings but no wins
- Hasn’t won since the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley in March
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