2017 Caulfield Cup Tips: Back the Four-Year-Olds

October 18, 2017

2017 Caulfield Cup Tips: Back the Four-Year-Olds

The Caulfield Cup 2017 tips are flooding in ahead of the opening leg of the Spring Cups double on Saturday and history shows the four-year-old horses in the mix are statistically the best to back.

Jameka

Jameka (2016) became the seventh four-year-old mare to dominate the Caulfield Cup results since 1983. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.

There are 17 hopefuls in the Group 1 $3 million BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) this year, the race running under the 18-starter capacity after the withdrawal of injured Japanese import Admire Deus on Tuesday morning.

Of the confirmed Caulfield Cup horses there are four four-year-old fancies looking to add to the imposing record of this age group from the past 30 plus years.

Since 1983 there have been 18 Caulfield Cup winning four-year-olds including the past two on the trot with Mongolian Khan (2015) and Jameka (2016) both also starting favourite.

The last time a trio of four-year-olds won the Caulfield Cup in successive years was 2003-05 and before that it was 1999-2001, with only the then six-year-old Fred Kersley-trained Northerly (2002) ruining the run.

18 four-year-olds have won the Caulfield Cup since 1983

It is an open edition of the mile and a half classic this weekend, with Aidan O’Brien’s Irish raider Johannes Vermeer ($4.20) leading the latest Caulfield Cup odds after a lead-up second in the Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m) just last Saturday.

Below though we have a look at the four-year-old chances in Caulfield Cup betting to decide if ATC Derby winner Jon Snow, the Hawkes Racing-trained Inference, one-time favourite Bonneval or the roughie hope Hardman are a winning chance.

#4 JON SNOW

Verdict: Brings into the race the same form as the stable’s 2015 winner and is a live-wire hope at a nice price.

Odds: $12

Breeding: by Iffraaj from Orinda

Age: 4YO

Sex: Stallion

Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (NZ)

Owners:  Zame Partnership

Jockey: Stephen Baster

Barrier: 6

Weight: 54.5kg

Lead-Up Run: 3rd, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017

  • Proven over the Caulfield Cup distance having won Sydney’s ATC Derby over 2400m as a 3YO in the autumn
  • Five runs in on Saturday so presents fit and ready to fire in good form
  • Moonee Valley Group 3 JRA Cup winner two back
  • Lead-up third in the Ladbrokes Stakes was eye-catching
  • Stablemate Mongolian Khan (2015) won the Caulfield Cup as a 4YO two years back off a Ladbrokes Stakes third
  • Drops from 58kg last weekend to 54.5kg
  • Stephen Baster is his regular rider this spring and knows the stallion well
  • Step-up in distance suits and has Caulfield race experience
  • Barrier 6 is a nice draw also producing Mongolian Khan to victory for the stable

#9 INFERENCE

Verdict: Would need to be improving notably to turn the tables on those ahead of him in the Ladbrokes Stakes last weekend.

Odds: $14

Breeding: by So You Think from Pontiana

Age: 4YO

Sex: Stallion

Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Owners: Mr L P Maxsted, Mr P C Maxsted, G P I Racing, Mr S J Tuxen, Ms K N Cooper, Mr P K Allen, Mrs C D Allen, Mr G J Hayes

Jockey: Dwayne Dunn

Barrier: 11

Weight: 53.5kg

Lead-Up Run: 5th, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017

  • Well-bred being a son of dual Cox Plate winner So You Think
  • Co-trainer John Hawkes won the race with then four-year-old Railings (2005)
  • Jockey Dwayne Dunn rode Tawqeet (2006) to victory in the race and has been on Inference for his three spring runs
  • Steadily improving each time out this season
  • Only 2.35 lengths off Bonneval two back when sixth in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m)
  • Fifth in the Caulfield Stakes last weekend beaten four lengths
  • Yet to win over further than a mile
  • Needs to improve to turn the tables on the horses that beat him home last Saturday
  • No Caulfield Cup winner has finished worse than fourth since 2010
  • Hasn’t won a race since the Randwick Guineas in the wet on March 4
  • Only the one third place from three previous Caulfield starts
  • Enjoys big drop from 58kg to 53.5kg
  • Jumps from barrier 11, which produced Jameka for her win last year

#11 BONNEVAL

Verdict: Can atone for the Ladbrokes Stakes loss and return the 4YO mares to winning Caulfield Cup form with luck from the gate.

Odds: $7.50

Breeding: by Makfi from Imposingly

Age: 4YO

Sex: Mare

Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (NZ)

Owners: Mr A R Lawrence, Mr J A Rattray, Mr T W Jarvis

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Barrier: 14

Weight: 52.5kg

Lead-Up Run: 6th, Group 1 Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m), Caulfield, 14/10/2017

  • One-time favourite but on the drift in Caulfield Cup betting after her loss last weekend and the wide draw
  • Only 4YO mare in the field and they have won the Caulfield Cup seven times (since 1983) including Jameka (2016) last year
  • Mares haven’t won back-to-back Caulfield Cups since Let’s Elope (1991) and Mannerism (1992)
  • Stablemate of Jon Snow representing the 2015 Caulfield Cup winning stable
  • Jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides her for the first time but won the race on All The Good (2008)
  • She’s a dual winner over the 2400m having done the NZ Oaks – ATC Oaks double as a filly
  • Barrier 14 hasn’t produced a winner in over 30 years but five of the past eight saluted from a double-digit draw

#12 HARDHAM

Verdict: There are better horses to get behind and doesn’t have the right lead-up form to suggest a win.

Odds: $41

Breeding: by Redoute’s Choice from Nureyev’s Girl

Age: 4YO

Sex: Stallion

Trainer: David Brideoake

Owners: Mrs S A Moody, Mr M J Bradley, Sir P Hogan, Mr M J Davidson, Mr S Derry, Mr M Fleming, Mrs K Fleming, Mr R J Patterson, Mr E Savaglia, Dr G Tsoi Wai Wang, Krualaya, Tomadachi, Ms R L Cormie, Kahos Racing

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Barrier: 8

Weight: 52.5kg

Lead-Up Run: 2nd, Inglis Cup (2000m), Caulfield, 01/10/2017

  • One of the roughies currently at the same Caulfield Cup odds All The Good (40/1 in 2008) scored the upset at
  • Carries 52.5kg the same weight three four-year-olds have saluted with since 2010
  • Craig Newitt jumps back on for the first time since September last year but has form on the horse
  • Comes off a non-traditional lead-up and the Inglis Cup form is hard to follow
  • Was beaten odd-on favourite last time out
  • Races in Group 1 company for the first time since the ATC Derby third to Jon Snow in the autumn
  • Was under a length beaten in the ATC Derby over the Caulfield Cup distance 2400m
  • Comes back from 57.5kg last time out
  • Has had five starts at Caulfield for two placings but no wins
  • Hasn’t won since the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley in March

Racing fields and data are copyright 2011-2021 © Racing Australia Pty Ltd (RA) (and other parties working with it).
Racing materials, including fields, form and results, is subject to copyright which is owned by RA and other parties working with it. Full copyright notice.

Spring Racing

Military Mission Fires in 2023...

Zipping Classic 2023 Field �...

Zipping Classic 2023 Field & Odds Update: Vow And Declare Defends Title

Danny O’Brien’s 2019 Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare continues to show a...

Overpass Heads 2023 Winterbott...

Overpass Heads 2023 Winterbottom Stakes Field & Betting Markets

Bjron Baker’s The Everest performer Overpass is tipped to return to winning...

Osipenko Leads The Gong 2023 R...

Osipenko Leads The Gong 2023 Race Field & Betting

The Chris Waller-trained Pierro four-year-old Osipenko is firm favourite in...

2023 Railway Stakes Field ...

2023 Railway Stakes Field & Betting Update: Tuvalu Narrow Favourite

The Lindsey Smith-trained top-weight Tuvalu is narrow favourite in the latest...

Horse Racing Today

2024 The Galaxy Results: Zapat...

Golden Slipper Results 2024: L...

Golden Slipper Results 2024: Lady Of Camelot Beats Coleman, Storm Boy Third

Co-trainer Gai Waterhouse extended her record to eight victories in the 2024...

2024 George Ryder Stakes Winne...

2024 George Ryder Stakes Winner Veight Beats Older Rivals

Veight joined an elite list of three-year-olds to beat home the older horses...

Rosehill Guineas 2024 Results:...

Rosehill Guineas 2024 Results: Riff Rocket Flies Home Late Ahead of ATC Derby

Chris Waller’s VRC Derby winner from the spring, Riff Rocket, now has the...

2024 Ranvet Stakes Results: Vi...

2024 Ranvet Stakes Results: Via Sistina Too Good Debuting for Waller

Yu Long Investments lucrative European purchase, the now Chris Waller-trained...

Race Results

2024 The Galaxy Results: Zapateo Upsets Sunshine In Paris

Golden Slipper Results 2024: Lady Of Camelot Beats Coleman, Storm Boy Third

Imperatriz Defends Title in 2024 William Reid Stakes

2024 George Ryder Stakes Winner Veight Beats Older Rivals

Rosehill Guineas 2024 Results: Riff Rocket Flies Home Late Ahead of ATC Derby

Race Previews

UK Raider Post Impressionist Heads Tancred Stakes Field & Odds

2024 Australian Cup Field & Betting Update: Pride Of Jenni v Mr Brightside

Golden Slipper 2024 Tips & Betting Update

The Galaxy 2024 Race Field & Odds: Ozzmosis Leads Betting on Slipper Day Sprint

2024 Rosehill Guineas Field & Betting Update: Riff Rocket Set to Take Off

Fields & Form

UK Raider Post Impressionist Heads Tancred Stakes Field & Odds

2024 Australian Cup Field & Betting Update: Pride Of Jenni v Mr Brightside

Golden Slipper 2024 Tips & Betting Update

The Galaxy 2024 Race Field & Odds: Ozzmosis Leads Betting on Slipper Day Sprint

2024 Rosehill Guineas Field & Betting Update: Riff Rocket Set to Take Off