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Chances are you're about to lose.

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The time-honoured Group 1 $2 million Victoria Derby (2500m) steals the show in Melbourne on the weekend with a gun field of young stayers set to do battle in the stallion-making classic led in betting by the airborne El Castello who will have the outside alley to overcome.

The Melbourne Cup Carnival kicks off on Saturday with Derby Day at Flemington, a day for racing purists, and the 2024 Victoria Derby field is led by Anthony Cummings‘ star Castelvecchio colt El Castello chasing a fifth win on the trot.

After working his way through the grades quickly this prep, he came off a Group 3 Gloaming win to score victory for the punters at Randwick last weekend in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2500m).

He is now set for the quick back-up into the VRC Derby heading south on Saturday and looking to do the double for the first time since Ace High (2017).

Jockey Josh Parr continues associations chasing his first Derby victory, and El Castello remains top of the Victoria Derby odds at $3.60 through Ladbrokes.com.au despite drawing the extreme outside gate.

The widest gate to produce a Victoria Derby winner in the past 30 years is barrier 15 with Rebel Raider in 2008 for his upset at 100/1.

Nick Ryan‘s Red Aces is the other top contender for this year’s Derby according to the bookies with the last start Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase winning Dundeel colt looking for another win at $6.50 and firming after drawing barrier four.

Efficient (2006) was the last horse to complete the Moonee Valley Vase – VRC Derby double.

Tivaci gelding King Of Thunder also comes via a Vase lead-up run on Cox Plate Day when third beaten just 0.27 lengths in a photo finish with improvement pending as an $8 Derby hope.

Jockey James McDonald, who misses out on a ride in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup with the withdrawal of Via Sistina, partners King Of Thunder from barrier one in the Derby field.

The Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young-trained Kenneland meanwhile is looking to win back the love of the punters after the Super Impose winner’s third as the beaten favourite in the Group 3 Caulfield Classic (2000m) on Caulfield Cup Day.

Hugh Bowman has the ride on the last of the single figure hopes at $9 from barrier 11.

The 2024 Penfolds Victoria Derby is set to run as Flemington Race 7 at 4:20pm (AEDT) on Saturday’s nine-race card after which the official 2024 Melbourne Cup field and barriers are released.

CHANCES ARE YOU’RE ABOUT TO LOSE.

For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.