The countdown to the Sydney Spring Racing...
The three-year-old milers do battle at Flemington Racecourse on Saturday in the Australian Guineas 2018, tips and the updated odds on the autumn classic detailed below.
It is a full field for this season’s Group 1 $1 million Australian Guineas (1600m) but just three of the hopefuls are currently under $10 for the win through Ladbrokes.com.au.
Darren Weir’s widely-drawn colt Cliff’s Edge is third-up after a Manfred Stakes win and CS Hayes Stakes second and is the firming $4.40 favourite in Australian Guineas betting.
The challengers according to the latest Australian Guineas odds are his last start conqueror Grunt ($5.50) coming off the CS Hayes Stakes win but draw even wider for the rematch and the Aaron Purcell-trained filly Aloisia ($7.50) who has winning form over Cliff’s Edge from the spring.
Earlier we published a comprehensive Australian Guineas 2018 Form Guide & Betting Preview, our below tips on the Flemington feature based on the historical facts and stats uncovered.
#16 Bring Me Roses ($19)
Going for an upset with the filly Bring Me Roses. There have been a number of double-figure Australian Guineas winners in recent years and think there is value to be had in the race again. The fillies last saluted in 2011-12 and came off lead-up runs in The Vanity. This daughter of High Chaparral was good running a close second first-up in that Flemington lead-up adding to her nice record at the track (4:1-2-0). She’s proven over the mile (2:1-1-0) including her Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes win at the track / distance by over two lengths in the spring. Luckless in the Wakeful before atoning with the VRC Oaks second. Needs to improve taking on the colts and geldings here, but fancy she can do that for last year’s winning trainer / jockey combination of Tony McEvoy and Luke Currie. Plenty of the better fancied are drawn wide and she’ll get things her way from the inside alley, which produced her stablemate Hey Doc (2017) for the win last year.
#11 Grunt ($5.50)
Work for the in-form Mick Price-trained O’Reilly colt to do from the gate, and only two Australian Guineas champions have won from a double-digit barrier in over 30 years, but he’s still a danger progressing each run. Comes off three straight wins, the latest in the CS Hayes Stakes that has produced the past three winners of Saturday’s Group 1. Beat this weekend’s favourite Cliff’s Edge and is fitter for this. Ticks plenty of boxes and is a genuine hope for dual winning trainer Mick Price having quickened well late over the 1400m last start.
#2 Cliff’s Edge ($4.40)
Runner-up in the CS Hayes Stakes but lost few admirers after being worn down late by Grunt. Was at a disadvantage weight-wise (58.5kg) that day but this weekend they are equal on 56.5kg and that is a big advantage. Has a wide alley but the early speed to overcome with John Allen in the saddle third-up. Firing fit and a two-time runner-up from four starts at Flemington. Proven up to 2000m so the distance is a non-issue.
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