The Ben, Will & JD Hayes-trained Cox...
A capacity field of young stayers do battle in the Victoria Derby 2021 at Flemington Racecourse on Saturday and below are our insider tips and exotic betting selections for this year’s edition of one of the world’s oldest races.
It is a boys’ only affair this weekend in the Group 1 $2 million Penfolds Victoria Derby (2500m) where all final acceptors are stepping out over the distance for the first time.
There are always a few unknowns in the VRC Derby in regards to the trip and which gallopers will best see it out on the big stage.
The latest Victoria Derby odds at Ladbrokes.com.au are suggesting a two-horse battle between last start winners Gunstock and Forgot You.
It is the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr galloper Gunstock sitting top of the markets at an easing quote of $4.50 with reigning Melbourne Cup hoop Jye McNeil booked to ride the Caulfield Classic winner from the wide alley.
Last Saturday’s narrow Moonee Valley Vase champion Forgot You meanwhile is drawn better in barrier eight for Daniel Moor, a jockey who has gone from zero to three on the Group 1 career tally this season.
Also drifting notably in the Victoria Derby betting markets at Ladbrokes.com.au right out from $3.60 to $4.80, Forgot You is getting out to a very backable price to handle the quick back-up and rise in distance.
Add into the mix Geelong Classic winner Tutukaka ($8.50) who has the longest-distance win on his record at 2200m, the Godolphin-raced Alegron ($9) to be ridden by the ridiculously in-form Brett Prebble and the market mover Hitotus ($6.50) racing for the first time since his powerful fifth in the Caulfield Guineas and it is a wide-open Derby!
Read on for our Victoria Derby best bets and the three-year-olds we’re backing in the feature on Day 1 of the Melbourne Cup Carnival.
- The Favourite: #4 Gunstock ($4.50 at time of publish) – BET NOW
No doubt this beautifully-bred and still untapped young staying talent presents as a huge chance to become just the third Victoria Derby favourite to salute for the punters since 2006 and the first since Ace High ($7 in 2017). His win in the Group 3 Caulfield Classic (2000m) was excellent and the winning margin suggest he’ll run out the 2500m. So too does his breeding, Gunstock being a son of Tavistock out of a Zabeel mare. The wet track? If it gets into the Heavy range who knows, but he’s gotten through Slow going well so far including last time out in the key Derby lead-up. He’s had a flawless preparation and the only negative is that wide alley. He’s a horse that likes to settle mid-field so McNeil will need a touch of early luck to get there or else be forced to race wide or back? That could be an issue late, but if he gets into the right spot he can win.
- The Danger: #1 Forgot You ($4.80 at time of publish) – BET NOW
Forgot You has seemingly been forgotten late by the punters and is presenting some really good value now at close to $5. Gets the run of the race from the lovely draw and Moor is having a career best season. In the past 19 years the Vase has produced 10 of the Derby winners. The double has not been achieved since Efficient (2006) however, but Forgot You is fit and firing. He’s done well on Slow going with two wins and a third so far so think he’ll get conditions to suit. The distance? Well they all need to tick that box but the way he ran down his tearaway 100/1 leading stablemate in the Vase suggests that further will suit.
- The Value: #2 Tutukaka ($8.50 at time of publish) – BET NOW
Tony Pike’s New Zealander has the longest-distanced win on the record after taking out the time-honoured Geelong Classic over 2200m last start. Distance? Tick. James McDonald is in Melbourne and is one of the best in the business. Jockey? Tick. Barrier 12 will become 10 if all emergencies come out, which looks ideal. Barrier? Tick. Another son of Tavistock. Pedigree? Tick. Flemington? Now that’s the query. He’s been here twice without a top three run, the latest 4.55 lengths back fifth to subsequent Caulfield Classic second placed filly El Patroness in the Super Impose Stakes (1800m). Third time lucky at HQ?
- The Best Roughie: #7 Jungle Magnate ($17 at time of publish) – BET NOW
If you fancy following the Vase form then surely this Price/Kent stablemate to favourite Gunstock is the value. The Tarzino gelding hasn’t won over further than 1400m and this is his first Flemington assignment, but he came from well back to power home for third last Saturday in an eye-catching run. Could be in the money again at a price.
Racing fields and data are copyright 2011-2021 © Racing Australia Pty Ltd (RA) (and other parties working with it).
Racing materials, including fields, form and results, is subject to copyright which is owned by RA and other parties working with it. Full copyright notice.