Rob Heathcote’s special little filly Startantes...
A gun field of autumn sprinters face off at Royal Randwick on Saturday in the 2018 TJ Smith Stakes, our comprehensive form guide analysis and betting preview for which is detailed below.
Easing but still short-priced favourite in the latest Ladbrokes.com.au markets on this year’s Group 1 $2.5 million TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) is the Peter & Paul Snowden-trained Randwick specialist Redzel.
The $8.2 million earner is out to $2.40 in the TJ Smith Stakes odds to post a third career Group 1 win across three states.
He won Brisbane’s Doomben 10,000 last May, the Darley Classic at Flemington in the spring on the back of winning Sydney’s Restricted $10 million The Everest (1200m) and now returns to that track and distance chasing an elite level Randwick win.
Redzel is flying and was impressive last time out saluting in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) before a three length trial win on March 26.
The challengers looking at the TJ Smith Stakes betting markets are Benjamin Smith’s The Galaxy winning mare In Her Time ($4.20) in gate three and the Darren Weir-trained Brave Smash ($7) one closer to the fence in barrier two looking to turn the tables on Redzel after a third in last October’s The Everest.
To sort the genuine contenders from the pretenders below we go over the complete TJ Smith Stakes 2018 form guide, betting history and statistical data on the sprint feature on Day 1 of ‘The Championships’.
2018 TJ Smith Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s TJ Smith Stakes winner was the dual defending champion Chautauqua (2017) who made history with the three-peat on the back of a Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m) third to Winx, jumping from barrier 11 (of 15) with Tommy Berry riding the Team Hawkes-trained $5.50 shot to victory
- Chautauqua has been ruled out of a fourth shot at the TJ Smith Stakes but Team Hawkes will still chase more success in 2018 saddling-up #13 Showtime ($61)
- Co-trainer John Hawkes has prepared four TJ Smith Stakes winners in total having also won the 1999 edition with Ab Initio before the triple victories by Chautauqua (2015-17)
- The other previous TJ Smith Stakes winning trainers with a starter on Saturday are three-time winner Gai Waterhouse with the race’s dual placegetter #9 English ($11) and #12 Global Glamour ($14) who she co-trains with Adrian Bott, and Gerald Ryan with #12 Trapeze Artist ($16)
- The previous TJ Smith Stakes winning jockeys with a ride this weekend are: Kerrin McEvoy on #1 Redzel ($2.40), Craig Williams on #3 Brave Smash ($7), Blake Shinn on #5 Takedown ($81) and Corey Brown on #8 In Her Time ($4.20)
- Last year’s winning barrier (11) has produced four winners since the race was inaugurated in 1998 including Chautauqua in both 2016 and 2017 and is drawn this year by #2 Le Romain ($51)
- The most successful TJ Smith Stakes barrier producing five winners is gate five drawn this year by #14 The Mission ($81)
- The next most successful TJ Smith Stakes barrier with three wins is gate four drawn on Saturday by #7 Fell Swoop ($61)
- Favourites in TJ Smith Stakes betting have saluted three times in the past decade most recently with Lankan Rupee ($3.75 in 2014); #1 Redzel is the 2018 TJ Smith Stakes favourite out to be the next
- In the past decade just two TJ Smith Stakes winner jumped at longer than $10 in betting; the other single-figure hopefuls in the race this year along with #1 Redzel are #8 In Her Time ($4.20) and #3 Brave Smash ($7)
- The Newmarket Handicap at Flemington has produced three of the past four TJ Smith Stakes winners; the Newmarket Handicap graduates in the race on Saturday are Brave Smash (2nd), Missrock (7th) and Thronum (12th)
- No TJ Smith Stakes winner has finished worse than third in their lead-up in the past decade; this year that rules out: #2 Le Romain, #4 Jungle Edge, #5 Takedown, #7 Fell Swoop, #11 Missrock, #13 Showtime and #14 The Mission
- During the last 10 years five TJ Smith Stakes champions won their lead-up race most recently Lankan Rupee (2014); the two last-start winners in the mix on Saturday are: #1 Redzel (Group 2 Challenge Stakes, 1000m, Randwick, 10/03/2018) and #8 In Her Time (Group 1 The Galaxy, 1100m, Rosehill, 24/03/2018)
- #8 In Her Time ($4.20) is looking to be the first TJ Smith Stakes winner out of The Galaxy since Bentley Biscuit (4th in 2007) when the lead-up was run at Warwick Farm
- The inaugural winner La Baraka (1998) was the last horse to do The Galaxy – TJ Smith Stakes double
- Black Caviar (2013) was the last TJ Smith Stakes winning mare; the female gallopers in the mix out to be the next this weekend are: #8 In Her Time, #9 English, #10 Global Glamour and #11 Missrock
- Gerald Ryan’s filly Melito (2010) was the last three-year-old to win the TJ Smith Stakes; the 3YOs in the race this weekend are all colts: #12 Trapeze Artist, #13 Showtime and #14 The Mission
- #4 Jungle Edge ($41) is out to be the first seven-year-old TJ Smith Stakes winner in history
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #1 Redzel (52%) followed by #8 In Her Time (44%)
- The best Place Rate of the field also belongs to #1 Redzel (78%) followed by #2 Le Romain (73%)
- The horses with the best winning form at the Randwick track are: #1 Redzel (9:6-1-1), #2 Le Romain (11:4-5-0), #9 English (14:4-2-1), #8 In Her Time (6:3-0-0), #10 Global Glamour (8:2-3-2) and #6 Thronum (3:2-0-1)
- The horses with the best winning strike rate over the 1200m distance are: #1 Redzel (6:4-0-0), #8 In Her Time (8:4-2-0), #5 Takedown (13:4-0-1), #7 Fell Swoop (13:4-2-2), #6 Thronum (6:3-2-0), #2 Le Romain (7:2-4-1), #4 Jungle Edge (14:3-1-2) and #12 Trapeze Artist (6:3-0-0)
Stay tuned for our insider TJ Smith Stakes 2018 tips, check out the full race form guide below in the meantime courtesy of Ladbrokes.com.au.
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