Can Shoot Out Claim an Upset Win in the 2010 Melbourne Cup?

October 12, 2010

Can Shoot Out Claim an Upset Win in the 2010 Melbourne Cup?

Less than a month out from the 2010 Melbourne Cup, the team here at Races.com.au are starting to delve deeper into the top contenders for the world’s richest handicap assessing the chances they have of winning the famous Flemington feature, and here we look at the John Wallace-trained Shoot Out.

Currently the Melbourne Cup betting markets are dominated by Bart Cummings’ superstar So You Think, who has firmed into the $5 favourite after another powerhouse win in the Yalumba Stakes last Saturday.

However, an odds-on favourite has not won the Melbourne Cup since the mighty Makybe Diva back in 2005.

In recent years the Melbourne Cup has been the domain of roughies, with the likes of Shocking (2009), Viewed (2008) and Efficient (2007) all going out at long odds to win causing upset Melbourne Cup results.

So what are the chances that Queensland galloper Shoot Out can win the 2010 Melbourne Cup?

Horse Facts – Shoot Out

  • Jockey: Shoot Out has been ridden by Stathi Katsidis throughout his spring campaign who will likely take the mount on Melbourne Cup Day
  • Trainer: John Wallace
  • Owners: G & L Huddy
  • Age: 4YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by High Chaparral (IRE) from Pentamerous (NZ)
  • Career: 16-7-2-3
  • Prize Money: $1,659,950
  • Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $31 Ladbrokes.com.au

Sharing the same sire as So You Think, Shoot Out is another High Chaparral four-year-old seeking the ultimate spring glory with a win in the 150th Emirates Melbourne Cup on Tuesday November 2.

Trained on the Gold Coast by John Wallace, AJC Derby winner Shoot Out has been a consistent performer this spring placing third in his past three Group status runs in the Memsie Stakes, Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and most recently the Turnbull Stakes.

In the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 3, Shoot Out was beaten by Zipping and current Melbourne Cup champion Shocking, but was able to beat home many other top rivals including Typhoon Tracy, Faint Perfume and Dariana.

Earlier in the spring Shoot Out claimed back-to-back wins in the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes and Group 2 JJ Liston Stakes, in which Shocking finished seventh, before his run of third placings.

Despite his consistency this season, Shoot Out has drifted out in the Melbourne Cup odds now at a very generous quote of $31 through Ladbrokes.com.au.

Punters have begun to abandon Shoot Out in favour of more recent winners including So You Think and Linton, worried the galloper peaked too early in the spring.

However, many of the early Melbourne Cup favourites are yet to secure a spot in the 24-horse Melbourne Cup field whereas Shoot Out is a certain starter sitting third on the order of elimination and weighted at 55.0kg.

The weight is also ideal for Shoot Out in the Cup, as he has previously been carrying a hefty 58.5kg and 58kg at his last three starts giving him a huge advantage with the 3kg drop.

Shoot Out’s 2010 Spring Form:

  • Won the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield on July 30
  • Won the Group 2 JJ Liston Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on August 14
  • 3rd in the Group 2 Memsie Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on August 28
  • 3rd in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley on September 11
  • 3rd in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 3

Having secured a spot in the field, won over a considerable distance of 2400m previously, allocated a manageable weight and one of the most consistent gallopers this season Shoot Out is an excellent outsider to back in the 2010 Melbourne Cup.

Heading towards the Melbourne Cup, Shoot Out will first tackle the $3 million Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley on October 23, for which he is currently the $10 third favourite for at Ladbrokes.com.au.

It is an interesting choice by trainer Wallace to continue on to the Melbourne Cup with Shoot Out following the Cox Plate as no Queensland trained horse in history has ever won the Melbourne Cup.

Will Shoot Out become the first? The answer is, he very well could become the 2010 Melbourne Cup winner.

So to get behind Shoot Out at his great early price, sign up with Ladbrokes.com.au today and you could be the big winner this Melbourne Cup Day!

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