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Saturday sees the season’s topline young stayers face off for a spot in the Australian history books with big prize money, Melbourne Cup Carnival glory and future value at stud all on the line in the time-honoured Group 1 $3 million Victoria Derby (2500m) at Flemington, and we’ve broken down the official VRC Derby field summing up every contender’s winning chances in just two words. Whether you’re siding with the heavily supported favourite, backing one of the proven Sydney form runners, following the powerful Vase and Geelong Classic lead-ups, or searching for a value stayer at longer odds, this quick-fire guide will help you sort the genuine Victoria Derby chances from the second glances.
Read on for the Races.com.au team’s exclusive two-word 2026 Victoria Derby form guide.
A race steeped in history since 1855, the Victoria Derby remains the ultimate examination for Australia’s best three-year-old stayers, with this year’s edition drawing a capacity field packed with emerging talent, proven lead-up performers, and several colts looking destined for bigger things over longer trips.
The latest Victoria Derby 2026 odds at Ladbrokes have Sydney raider Cormier narrowly holding favouritism after drawing beautifully in barrier three following his eye-catching Spring Champion Stakes placing. Hot on his heels in the market are Stormy Marco, representing the powerful Chris Waller stable, and True Rebel, the last-start Moonee Valley Vase winner bidding to continue the increasingly influential Vase-to-Derby form trend.
Adding further intrigue are King Snitz, who arrives chasing a hat-trick after his gritty Caulfield Classic victory, the in-form filly Quick Finish looking to take on the boys, and reigning Derby-winning trainer Ciaron Maher‘s strong trio of Murshidi, Skua, and Vallice, each bringing genuine staying credentials to the famous Flemington feature.
With proven Sydney form, key Victorian lead-up races, and untapped staying potential all converging in one of the most open Derby fields in recent years, punters face no shortage of options. To help separate the genuine Victoria Derby contenders from those facing an uphill battle, we’ve summed up every runner’s chances in just two words.
1. CORMIER (3) – Staying Promise
The favourite draws to get every chance and looks ready to relish the rise to 2500m.
| 1. Cormier (3) J: Jamie Mott 57kg x0843 T: Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich | |||
| Recent form sound. Last start led but faded 3rd of 9 in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 24 over 2000m, 1.75 len behind Proxima Dea with 56.5kg at $16. The run before that 4th of 10 in the G3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1800m, long-neck behind Proxima Dea with 56.5kg at $4.20. Can improve again. Will stay all day and sets up beautifully from the gate. | |||
2. STORMY MARCO (16) – Brewing Storm
Wide draw hurts, but the Waller-J-Mac combination screams danger.
| 2. Stormy Marco (15) J: James McDonald 57kg x2954 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Last start 4th of 9 in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 24 over 2000m, 3 len behind Proxima Dea carrying 56.5kg at $10. The run before that got back early 5th of 10 in the G3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1800m, 0.5 len behind Proxima Dea with 56.5kg at $6.50. Big run last week, J-Mac offsets the gate and he’ll be very hard to beat. | |||
3. TRUE REBEL (17) – Vase Winner
Moonee Valley Vase winners demand respect in Derby company.
| 3. True Rebel (16) J: Billy Egan 57kg 3121 T: Danny O’brien | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start favourite; came from midfield and won by 0.5 len in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase at this track on October 24 over 2040m defeating Skua carrying 57kg at $2.60. The run before that 2nd of 8 in a 3yo Bm70 at Caulfield on October 14 over 1600m, head behind Mister Whiskers carrying 58.5kg at $2.90. Good win last week albeit with all favours, can’t dismiss. | |||
4. KING SNITZ (6) – Royal Upset
Caulfield Classic winner with a staying pedigree and value appeal.
| 4. King Snitz (5) J: Damian Lane 57kg 9311 T: Shane Jackson | |||
| Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run came from midfield and won by a nose in the G3 Caulfield Classic on October 17 over 2000m defeating Vallice with 57kg at $16. The run before that ran on from midfield and won by 3 len in a Mdn-Sw at Warrnambool on September 21 over 2000m defeating Los Bravos with 57kg at $1.70. Won key lead up nicely and should stay strongly. | |||
5. MURSHIDI (18) – Classic Caller
Geelong Classic winner coming through a proven Derby pathway.
| 5. Murshidi (17) J: Blake Shinn 57kg x7321 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Last start came from midfield and won by a neck in the LR Geelong Classic on October 21 over 2200m defeating Icy You with 57kg at $3.70. The race before that sat on the pace when 2nd of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Geelong on October 7 over 1765m, slow going 3.5 len behind Fringilla carrying 57kg at $2.30. Against the Geelong form. | |||
6. VALLICE (14) – Bridesmaid Blues
Close-up in all the right lead-ups and threatening to break through.
| 6. Vallice (13) J: Mark Zahra 57kg 44522 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Racing well recently. Most recently gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 8 in the G3 Caulfield Classic on October 17 over 2000m, nose behind King Snitz with 57kg at $4.40. Before that 2nd of 12 in the LR Super Impose Stakes at this track on October 3 over 1800m, in the wet; 2.5 len behind Miss Waititi with 57kg at $4.20. Had chance latest but is in the minor mix again. | |||
7. SKUA (13) – Marathon Man
Kept finding in the Vase and shapes as a genuine stayer.
| 7. Skua (12) J: John Allen 57kg 31662 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| At the latest run gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 11 in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 0.5 len behind True Rebel carrying 57kg at $21. Before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 8 in the G3 Caulfield Classic on October 17 over 2000m, 5 len behind King Snitz carrying 57kg at $10. Kept kicking last week, fancy he’ll stay all day. | |||
8. CIGNETTI (12) – Photo Finish
Arguably wins the Classic with another few strides.
| 8. Cignetti (11) J: William Pike 57kg x1233 T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start 3rd of 8 in the G3 Caulfield Classic on October 17 over 2000m, head behind King Snitz with 57kg at $6.50. The run before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 12 in the LR Super Impose Stakes at this track on October 3 over 1800m, on heavy track; 3.5 len behind Miss Waititi with 57kg at $8. Wins in another stride last time, looks a solid chance. | |||
9. ICY YOU (10) – Cold Comfort
Honest and consistent, but others appeal more for the win.
| 9. Icy You (9) J: Craig Williams 57kg 21242 T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | |||
| Most recently held ground to the line 2nd of 13 in the LR Geelong Classic on October 21 over 2200m, neck behind Murshidi with 57kg at $7.50. The start before that 4th of 12 in the LR Super Impose Stakes at this track on October 3 over 1800m, on a wet track; 3.5 len behind Miss Waititi carrying 57kg at $14. Risking. | |||
10. TRUE TONE (15) – Finding Voice
Still learning his craft and open to further improvement.
| 10. True Tone (14) J: Jason Collett 57kg 44213 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Most recently raced on speed throughout when 3rd of 13 in the LR Geelong Classic on October 21 over 2200m, 1.0 len behind Murshidi carrying 57kg at $2.60. The start before that favourite; won by a nose in a Super Mdn at Warwick Farm on October 5 over 1600m in soft going defeating Tharwa with 55.5kg at $2.80. Can improve again but other form stronger. | |||
11. HIERARCHY (4) – Scratched
| 11. Hierarchy (4) Scratched: | |||
12. WRITTEN EMPIRE (2) – Blueprint Chance
Low draw and tactical speed make him an interesting roughie.
| 12. Written Empire (2) J: Harry Coffey 57kg 4136 T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | |||
| Last start 6th of 11 in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 3.5 len behind True Rebel with 57kg at $7.50. The run before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 8 in a 3yo Bm70 at Caulfield on October 14 over 1600m, 1.4 len behind Mister Whiskers carrying 58.5kg at $4.40. Okay last week and maps well, rough top four hope. | |||
13. RUSSIAN ROCK (7) – Kremlin Climb
Needs to find another gear to trouble the major players.
| 13. Russian Rock (6) J: Michael Dee 57kg 3×154 T: Michael Trotter | |||
| Last start 4th of 8 in the G3 Caulfield Classic on October 17 over 2000m, 4.5 len behind King Snitz with 57kg at $2.90. The run before that 5th of 9 in the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes at Caulfield on September 27 over 1600m, 2.25 len behind Diameter carrying 57kg at $31. Well backed last time but needs to go to a new level. | |||
14. COLD SHOWER (5) – Reality Check
Staying credentials there, but the form references are thinner.
| 14. Cold Shower (4) J: Jett Stanley 57kg 316 T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | |||
| Last start 6th of 13 in the LR Geelong Classic on October 21 over 2200m, 4.5 len behind Murshidi with 57kg at $12. The race before that raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 2.25 len in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Geelong on October 7 over 2270m in soft going defeating Gradivus carrying 58kg at $2.60. Other form stronger. | |||
15. KING WINSTON (9) – Royal Mission
The trip should suit, but class remains the concern.
| 15. King Winston (8) J: Daniel Stackhouse 57kg 0245 T: Greg Eurell | |||
| Last start 5th of 11 in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 3.5 len behind True Rebel carrying 57kg at $61. The race before that 4th of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Geelong on October 7 over 1765m, on a slow track; 9 len behind Fringilla carrying 57kg at $10. Should stay well but doubt he has the class. | |||
16. QUICK FINISH (11) – Late Charge
The filly arrives unbeaten in her past three and refuses to stop winning.
| 16. Quick Finish (10) J: Jye Mcneil 55kg 5111 T: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy | |||
| At the latest run won by 0.5 len in a G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 2000m defeating Your Colour carrying 56kg at $15. The start before that won by a long-neck in a 3yo Hcp at Caulfield on September 19 over 1800m defeating Icy You carrying 57kg at $6. Rare attempt by a filly in the Derby, fancy other formlines stronger. | |||
17e. MEET THE PRINCE (1) – Wrong Kingdom
Earned his place but this looks a bridge too far if he gains a start.
| 17. Meet The Prince (1) J: Jackson Radley 57kg x0622 T: Patrick Kearney | |||
| Dual acceptor. Last start made some head-way from midfield; 2nd of 11 in a Mdn-Sw at Echuca on October 19 over 2100m, 1.0 len behind Notre Citrouille carrying 57kg at $4.40. The race before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 10 in a Mdn-Sw at Manangatang on October 10 over 1550m, long-neck behind Misil Beauty with 57.5kg at $3.10. Outclassed. | |||
18e. LOCKED IN (8) – Vault Shut
Would need a dramatic turnaround to feature in the finish should he gain a run.
| 18. Locked In (7) J: Ben Allen 57kg 9×749 T: Ken & Kasey Keys | |||
| Last start eased back early on 9th of 13 in the LR Geelong Classic on October 21 over 2200m, 6 len behind Murshidi carrying 57kg at $151. Before that 4th of 8 in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Geelong on October 7 over 2270m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Cold Shower with 58kg at $6. Outclassed. | |||
