The Lexus Stakes 2016 on Derby Day offers a final chance at making the Melbourne Cup field to the stayers lining-up at Flemington, and below are our insider betting tips and the updated odds on the handicap feature.
Running as Flemington Race 4 at 1:40pm (AEDT) on Saturday, the $300,000 Group 3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) features a final field of twelve stayers doing battle.
Heading the Lexus Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au to win the race and the ballot-free-ride into next Tuesday’s $6.2 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) at $2.40 and firming is Oceanographer.
The Charlie Appleby-trained, Godolphin-raced raider needs to win to make the Cup field after narrowly missing out when under a length away third to stablemate Qewy on debut down under in the Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m).
He gets in on the 54kg minimum again this weekend and the Geelong Cup – Bendigo Cup double winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy comes aboard the Sea The Stars five-year-old this weekend.
Following Oceanographer in Lexus Stakes betting this Melbourne Cup Carnival are Tom Melbourne ($4.60) and Real Love ($5.50) – one needing the ballot exemption for the ‘race that stops a nation’ and one already assured of a run in the world’s richest handicap.
Lee & Anthony Freedman are hoping the hit and miss form of the imported Tom Melbourne is over and the six-year-old is nearing winning form after his half-length second in the Group 3 Coongy Cup (2000m) at Caulfield last start.
The distance is the test this weekend, but the bookies are taking no chances as triple Melbourne Cup winning jockey Glen Boss boards the galloper from barrier two on just 54.5kg.
The Darren Weir-trained JRA Cup winning mare Real Love meanwhile doesn’t need to win to make the Melbourne Cup field, but she does need to run well to prove she’s worth throwing in the mix for the two mile classic a few days later.
She carries 58.5kg so will need to be at her best rising from the 52.5kg she carried to fifth behind Jameka in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) a fortnight back.
With a number of genuine hopes at shorter odds and livewire outsiders at more generous prices including the Chris Waller-trained Junoob ($17) – see who to back and who to sack in the Lexus Stakes results below.
1st
#8 Oceanographer ($2.40)
This UK visitor is firming fast and could almost be worth leaving at the short odds, but the stable is on fire and he’ll be better for his first-up run in Australia. McEvoy is doing everything right on the Godolphin raiders for Appleby and he’s out to keep the winning streak going in the Lexus. This horse is fighting for the Melbourne Cup spot so has lots to prove, and was under a length beaten by the stablemate in the Geelong Cup over the mile and a half at the same weight last time out.
2nd
#9 Black Tomahawk ($21)
Big odds offered on Real Love’s stablemate who, getting in on the 54kg minimum, can surprise and finish in the money. He is a perennial placegetter having run second or third in his six latest starts including behind Almandin in the Harry White Classic (2400m) at Caulfield in late September. Freshened-up since and rises in class, but is a genuine Flemington performer (4-0-3-1) that works in his favour, has a gun record at the distance (6-0-3-2) and has big race specialist Craig Williams in the saddle.
3rd
#2 Real Love ($5.50)
Real Love is a Group 2 Perth Cup winner and was really pushed in the Caulfield Cup early last time out by Williams from the wide gate. She used up the energy, but still finished off well and Brad Rawiller reunites here after guiding her for the three length JRA Cup win at the Valley two back. Big weight rise, but this is easier company and she’s more than capable of returning to winning form.
Back our 2016 Lexus Stakes betting tips and access the best pre-field Melbourne Cup odds online now at Ladbrokes.com.au.