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With just hours until the historic 2026 Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040m) at Flemington, the betting market is finally beginning to settle, and punters are rallying around a couple of standout WFA contenders for this afternoon’s feature.
The first-ever Cox Plate at Flemington has attracted a fascinating mix of support for proven weight-for-age stars, emerging three-year-olds and a handful of roughies, while several runners have experienced significant fluctuations in the lead-up to the $6 million classic.
Here’s the latest Cox Plate 2026 betting update courtsey of race sponsor Ladbrokes, including the key market movers, drifters, firmers and the big bets shaping the market.
Who Is the Cox Plate 2026 Favourite?
The market has tightened dramatically throughout the week with Aeliana ($4.50) and Sir Delius ($4.50) currently sharing favouritism on race day.
Aeliana has remained remarkably solid throughout betting, opening at $4.40 before fluctuating between $4.40 and $4.80 before settling back at $4.50. The Chris Waller-trained mare continues to attract support from punters eager to side with James McDonald, who is chasing an incredible fifth consecutive Cox Plate victory.
| 10. Aeliana (10) J: James McDonald 57kg 1×023 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start 3rd of 13 in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track on October 3 over 2000m, on a wet track; 2.75 len behind Cosmic Crusader with 57kg at $3.80. The start before that 2nd in a small field in the G2 7 Stakes at Randwick on September 19 over 1600m, 1.3 len behind Autumn Glow carrying 57kg at $21. Building beautifully, will be charging home. | |||
Sir Delius, meanwhile, opened as short as $3.90 and remains one of the most respected runners in the field despite easing slightly to $4.50. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained star has been set specifically for this race, and many form analysts believe his Queen Elizabeth Stakes-winning peak remains the benchmark in the field.
Warwoven Continues to Attract Support
If there’s one horse punters keep coming back to, it’s talented three-year-old Warwoven.
The Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas hero opened at $6 before tightening into $5.50, drifting, and shortening again multiple times through betting. He now sits at $5.50, firmly entrenched as one of the key chances in the Cox Plate 2026 odds.
The combination of his booming spring form, ideal barrier two draw and luxury 49.5kg weight has ensured he remains one of the most popular betting propositions of the race.
Ceolwulf the Market Casualty
One of the more notable drifters throughout the week has been Ceolwulf.
The Joseph Pride-trained star opened at $6 but has steadily eased to $8, despite strong recent form and an ideal draw in barrier three.
The drift appears to reflect lingering doubts about whether the ultra-consistent gelding can produce his best at the end of a brutally run 2040m, with some punters preferring other runners in the market at shorter quotes.
That said, his supporters remain confident a strong tempo will play directly into his hands.
Cosmic Crusader Firming into Contention
The Turnbull Stakes winner Cosmic Crusader has quietly become one of the better-backed runners in the field.
After opening at $8.50 and briefly touching $9, the Andrea Leek-trained gelding was crunched into as short as $6.50 before settling around $8 on race day.
The market support comes despite his Caulfield Cup fourth on the quick back-up, with many punters believing his Flemington Turnbull victory remains one of the strongest pieces of form in the race.
Birdman Holding Firm
Chris Waller’s second runner Birdman has been one of the more stable runners in betting.
Opening at $12, the Underwood Stakes winner tightened into $10 at stages during the week before easing back to his current quote of $12.
From barrier one and likely to enjoy a perfect run throughout, Birdman has remained a popular each-way prospect and continues to feature prominently in Cox Plate exotics betting.
Roughie Money for Light Infantry Man
One horse attracting some sneaky support at odds has been Light Infantry Man.
The dual Australian Cup winner opened at $20 before firming into $18, drifting again, and eventually settling around $19.
Given his outstanding record over the Flemington 2000m and strong recent Turnbull Stakes performance, plenty of sharp punters believe the Ciaron Maher-trained galloper is over the odds.
Market Drifters: Land Legend & Attrition Ease
While support has arrived for several runners, others have gone the opposite direction.
Land Legend
The Might And Power giant-killer has drifted notably from $31 out to $46 through Ladbrokes at time of publish, despite his stunning front-running Group 1 victory.
The market appears unconvinced he will receive the same uncontested lead that allowed him to break the clock at Caulfield.
Attrition
Mitchell Freedman’s outsider has also drifted significantly.
After opening at $46, Attrition briefly blew out to $71 before settling around $67. Despite coming off a confidence-boosting Hill Stakes win, punters have largely looked elsewhere among the more established Group 1 performers.
Middle Earth
The Maher-trained stayer has enjoyed minor support late but remains the rank outsider at $81, having touched triple figures earlier in the week.
Saint George a Quiet Improver
One horse whose price trend has gone under the radar is Saint George.
The Caulfield Cup runner-up opened at $26 and has steadily firmed into $16, suggesting there is genuine respect for the Maher-trained stayer following his brave effort behind Kingswood last Saturday.
The market move makes him one of the biggest percentage firmers in the race.
Blind Raise Not Forgotten
Three-year-old Blind Raise has experienced notable fluctuations throughout betting.
After opening at $12, he drifted as far as $15 before firming back into $13.
Many punters remain wary of his likely on-speed role in what projects to be a genuinely run Cox Plate, but his outstanding Caulfield Guineas second ensures he still commands respect.
Biggest Bets on the 2026 Cox Plate
Ladbrokes’ latest betting activity shows punters aren’t afraid to launch into the feature.
The biggest outright win bet recorded among the reported wagers belongs to Warwoven, further highlighting how much confidence punters have in the Bjorn Baker-trained colt becoming the latest three-year-old to conquer Australia’s weight-for-age championship.
Latest Cox Plate 2026 Odds
Cox Plate Betting Update Verdict
The latest Cox Plate 2026 betting markets suggest punters are concentrating around the proven class runners, with Aeliana, Sir Delius and Warwoven dominating betting turnover heading into race day.
However, some of the most interesting moves have come further down the board, with Saint George and Light Infantry Man attracting support at longer odds while Land Legend has become the race’s biggest drifter despite his Might And Power heroics.
With the Cox Plate 2026 field widely regarded as one of the deepest in recent years and the first Flemington running promising an entirely different tactical challenge, punters appear split on the winner. What they do agree on is this: Saturday’s edition of the “Race Where Legends are Made” is shaping as one of the most fascinating betting contests of the entire Spring Carnival.
