The BMW 2013 Form Guide & Betting Analysis

While the marquee race on the Rosehill card this Saturday is the two-year-olds’ Golden Slipper there is sure to also be plenty of fanfare over the star stayers facing off in the 2013 The BMW– the Races.com.au team’s inside form guide and betting preview for which is detailed below.

Fiveandahalfstar is the deserving 2013 The BMW betting favourite. Photo: Steve Hart

One of the richest races at the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival, the $2.25 million Group 1 The BMW (2400m) is scheduled as Golden Slipper Day Race 5 at 2:35pm (AEST) and a talented 12-horse field of gallopers is engaged to face off.

Current favourite in the The BMW odds at a quote of $3 is Fiveandahalfstar, Anthony Cummings’ Victoria Derby winning Hotel Grand gelding looking to end a four straight concession of second place finishes with a win on the weekend.

Their two most recent runs have been over 2000m when just nudged out of the Group 1 Australian Cup by Super Cool in Flemington before their second to Foreteller in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill last start.

So is Fiveandahalfstar the stayer to beat on Saturday or is there an upset The BMW result on the card?

Other chances in with a shot at the trophy include Ranvet Stakes winner Foreteller ($7), former star stayer Maluckyday ($7) who showed some of their old spark when third in the Ranvet, and the untapped Hathras ($7.50) with barrier 12 to overcome.

Punters can find even juicer odds on some other notable hopes including Doomben Cup champ Mawingo ($16) and Tony McEvoy’s exciting import Le Roi ($21).

To help you pick the winning The BMW trifecta in 2013 we’ve gone over the field, form guide and history to come up with the below must know facts and stats on the race.

2013 The BMW Form Facts & Betting Stats

Last year’s The BMW winner was the Peter Moody-trained Manighar who won the race following a Group 1 double in the Australian Cup and Ranvet Stakes, jumped form barrier 6 (of 9) and was ridden by Luke Nolen
This year Moody and Nolen are without representation
#1 Foreteller ($7) will look to salute in the same Ranvet Stakes – The BMW double as Manighar from 12 months ago

Horse Racing Tip The favourite #12 Fiveandahalfstar has drawn last year’s winning barrier six
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#12 Fiveandahalfstar ($3) ran second in both the Australian Cup and Ranvet Stakes meaning they come via the same lead-up as Manighar
Last year’s winning gate six this year also belongs to the favourite #12 Fiveandahalfstar
Along with #1 Foreteller the only other last-start winner in the mix this year is then #13 Hathras (3YO 1MW Handicap, 2200m, Warwick Farm, 21/03/2013) who won by nine lengths
#9 Le Roi ($21) boasts the best Win Rate of the field with a tidy 62.50% followed by #10 Hathras (50.00%) and #11 Silent Achiever (40.00%)
#10 Hathras ($7.50) then has the highest Place Percentage with a perfect 100% followed by #9 Le Roi (57.00%), #11 Silent Achiever (66.67%) and #4 Kelinni (63.64%)
Horses with the best Rosehill record are #1 Foreteller (5-3-0-0), #3 Niwot (7-2-2-0), #4 Kelinni (4-1-2-0), #9 Le Roi (2-1-0-1), #10 Hathras (1-1-0-0) and #12 Fiveandahalfstar (5-1-1-1)
Over the distance (2400m) those with the best strike rate are #3 Niwot (5-1-1-0), #4 Kelinni (2-1-1-0), #5 Maluckyday (3-1-0-0), #6 Gatewood (3-1-0-1), #8 Sangster (2-1-0-0), #9 Le Roi (1-1-0-0), #10 Hathras (1-1-0-0) and #11 Silent Achiever (2-1-0-0)
Three horses have then won over the Track & Distance before with #3 Niwot (2-1-0-0), #4 Kelinni (1-1-0-0) and #9 Le Roi (1-1-0-0)
Only 2 of the past 10 favourites have won The BMW while 11 have won since 1983; this year the favourite is #12 Fiveandahalfstar
Over the past decade just two of the favourites have failed to run a place
Double-figure roughies have won nine times since 1983
Geldings have the best recent record in the race with eight victories in the last 10 years including the past four winners; the other two winners were mares
There are seven geldings in the race this year including the top fancy #12 Fiveandahalfstar
The non-geldings or mares are the four stallions with #2 Mawingo, #6 Gatewood, #9 Le Roi and #10 Hathras making these risky bets statistically
Trainer John Hawkes has won the race four times from 13 attempts since 1983; he now trains in partnership with sons Wayne and Michael and they will be dually represented in the race this year with #3 Niwot ($51) and #5 Maluckyday ($7)

Use the above The BMW facts to guide your betting this weekend, making sure you bet with the best – bookmaker.com.au!

2013 The BMW Field & Form Guide

Rosehill Race 5 – 2:35pm (AEST) – 06/04/2013

#	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Br.	Wgt.	AS	Days	API	Career	W%	P%	Last 6
1.	FORETELLER	C J Waller	Jimmy Cassidy	9	59	6yoG	14	$29,322	28: 9 1 1	32.14%	39.29%	x25171
2.	MAWINGO	Anthony Freedman	Craig Williams	4	59	5yoH	14	$37,300	17: 4 2 4	23.53%	58.82%	8×2404
3.	NIWOT	“M, W and J Hawkes	Michael Rodd	7	59	8yoG	14	$33,801	36: 9 4 1	25.00%	38.89%	00×648
4.	KELINNI	C J Waller	Nash Rawiller	1	59	5yoG	14	$35,159	22: 8 3 3	36.36%	63.64%	14×596
5.	MALUCKYDAY	“M, W and J Hawkes	Dwayne Dunn	5	59	6yoG	14	$64,838	21: 5 3 3	23.81%	52.38%	50×563
6.	GATEWOOD	C J Waller	Corey Brown	10	59	5yoH	14	$28,005	14: 5 2 1	35.71%	57.14%	16×679
7.	KUTCHINSKY	D T O’brien	Blake Shinn	11	59	6yoG	26	$14,362	33: 5 5 2	15.15%	36.36%	821514
8.	SANGSTER	T L Busuttin	Steven Arnold	3	58.5	4yoG	14	$71,254	20: 6 3 2	30.00%	55.00%	021117
9.	LE ROI	Tony Mcevoy	Glyn Schofield	2	58	4yoH	14	$25,551	8: 5 0 1	62.50%	75.00%	511113
10.	HATHRAS	K A Lees	Christian Reith	12	58	4yoH	16	$12,972	6: 3 1 2	50.00%	100.00%	21×311
11.	SILENT ACHIEVER	R A James	James Mc Donald	8	56.5	4yoM	14	$47,896	15: 6 2 2	40.00%	66.67%	14×245
12.	FIVEANDAHALFSTAR	A J Cummings	Hugh Bowman	6	54.5	3yoG	14	$70,972	19: 3 6 1	15.79%	52.63%	1×2222