Who Will Win the Melbourne Cup 2010?

This is the question everyone in Australia is now asking and many people forming an opinion as to who will win the Melbourne Cup in 2010. There will be street corner tips, people who like the colours or the jockey or the trainer (who wouldn’t consider a Bart Cummings trained horse) but there could be a little more science to it. We will tell you who will win this years cup based on the real statistics.

2010 Melbourne Cup Trophy - photo courtesy © VRC

When considering past statistics on the Melbourne Cup we don’t think it is worthwhile going back further than 10 years. Training methods, horse supplements, jockeys and trainers all change, its a changing world so lets look at our most recent history.

Here are some tips for finding this years Melbourne Cup winner. The last 10 Melbourne Cup winners have all fallen within these parameters

Last 10 Melbourne Cup Winners

Brew in the 2000 Melbourne Cup
Ethereal in the 2001 Melbourne Cup
Media Puzzle in the 2002 Melbourne Cup
Makybe Diva in the 2003, 2004, 2005 Melbourne Cups
Delta Blues in the 2006 Melbourne Cup
Efficient in the 2007 Melbourne Cup
Viewed in the 2008 Melbourne Cup
Shocking in the 2009 Melbourne Cup

Tips for Picking the 2010 Melbourne Cup Winner

1. The last 2 starts the horse has run in a race over 2000 meters or more
2. The age of the horse is between 4 and 7 years
3. It has had a race start within the last 17 days
4. The horse has to have run a place in its last 6 starts – it must have some current form
5. The horse must have won a race in the last 12 months and has to have won a race in its last 6 starts
6. The horse should have a 40% place strike rate in its last 10 starts
7. The prospect should not have been beaten by more than 7 lengths at its last start and must have finished in the first 12 past the post
8. The jockey must have ridden the horse before in a race start
9. From the horse’s last run it cannot be going up more than 2.5 kilos in weight it has to carry and it shouldn’t be dropping more than 7.5 kilos in weight
10. The horse will be weighted no more than 8 kilos less than the top weight for the cup
11. The horse must have started in a weight for age race (WFA) or Handicap race (HCP) at its last 3 starts
12. Do not back a horse that has led the field to the turn at its last start, ideally your horse would have been running from 2nd to 12th on the turn
13. Your horse will not have odds of greater than 50-1
14. It doesn’t matter if you like the horses name
15. And it doesn’t matter if you like the colours or the jockey