• No. 6 Presage Nocturne (9)

PRESAGE NOCTURNE (9) is the horse I’m on to win the Melbourne Cup 2025.

This French raider gives me serious Americain vibes and is a classy grey son of super sire Wootton Bassett whose progeny is capable of pulling off just about anything right now.

He’s got winning form up to 3000m overseas and I think he’ll run out the 3200m without a worry, so he ticks the distance box which is a query for a few in the mix.

Highly accomplished French jockey Stéphane Pasquier has travelled down under to continue associations in another plus.

Is drawn barrier 9, which hasn’t produced a winner since Efficient (2007), but looks tactically like an ideal gate for this visitor.

Made a brilliant impression with his Australian debut with a strong fourth-place finish in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m. That effort earned praise from connections, highlighting the horse’s steady progression throughout the spring.

He was well back tracking about 13th on the turn for home before flashing into the finish to cross only 1.8 lengths off Half Yours carrying 57.5kg.

Drops weight and natural improvement combined with the rise in trip puts him right in the frame.

Oozes consistency having run out of the top three in just four of his 17 starts to date.

Prior to his debut down under he was super competitive lumping 59kg to finish third, only a quarter-length beaten in the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay – a French showdown over 3000m that’s form has held up in the ‘race that stops a nation’ plenty of times in the past.

With a solid European staying record to his name, he now faces the ultimate challenge over two miles at Flemington.

Rain is predicted leading-up to game day, and he’ll thrive on a wet track.

Huge winning hope at a great price.

• No. 14 Half Yours (8)

I’ve ummed and ahhed about the chances of HALF YOURS (8) doing the Spring Cups double, and the bottom line is he is just going too good not to suggest he’ll be in the finish.

Only 12 have done it before now, and this progressive St. Jean gelding for Team McEvoy could make it a baker’s dozen.

It has been a terrific progression through the grades since his Listed Caloundra Cup (2400m) win in the winter which he won on a Soft (5) by a runaway margin with 54kg in effortless style stamping himself as an exciting spring prospect. And so far he’s lived up to the hype.

Really entered Cup calculations when claiming the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) – by 3.5 lengths no less – then atoned for his Turnbull 4th to Sir Delius (who would have been right in this) to claim the Caulfield Cup.

Jamie Melham made history as the first female jockey to secure a win in the traditional Melbourne Cup lead-up and she’s back in the saddle for the big one.

Some might query his ability going up to 3200m now but she’s confident, and I like that.

This up-and-coming five-year-old carried 52.5kg and after copping a penalty goes up to 53kg now but still looks well weighted.

Had plenty of favours in his lead-up but still hard to knock this year’s Melbourne Cup favourite.

Vow And Declare (2019) and Knight’s Choice (2024) are the two latest Aussie-bred champions of this great race, and Half Yours is the sole locally foaled hope on Tuesday.

Love him in barrier 8 which Viewed (2008) won from most recently, and any rain only further enhances his chances.

Each Way chance for sure.

• No. 1 Al Riffa (19)

AL RIFFA (19) sat top of 2025 Melbourne Cup betting a long way out from the event but has eased out to $8 at time of publish having been allocated 59kg and drawing wide in barrier 19.

Still, he’s the class international and the Europeans love this race.

They also love rain-affected going and he’ll get that this year according to the forecast.

That said, will that help or hinder him considering how much weight he gives away over the distance?

Ireland’s Joesph O’Brien is no stranger to Cup success here having prepared two past champions, and he saddles-up a livewire chance who is out to make history with his weight.

Jockey of the hour Mark Zahra is booked for the ride and chases his third win in four years. Add to the fact he dominated Derby Day with an impressive four-peat – including Group 1 wins in the Coolmore and Derby – and he really is the man you want aboard on Tuesday.

Can he do it from out in 19? Cross Counter (2018) did not that long ago, so I don’t really think the barrier is as big a hinderance as some are making out.

You only have to look at his domination back hope leading-up to this to gain confidence.

Won the Group 2 Curragh Cup (2816m) with a hefty 62kg braining his rivals by five lengths in July before an equally powerhouse performance over the same distance carrying 61.5kg to salute in the Group 1 Irish St Leger by 4 lengths.

That’s some form lines.

The fact he hasn’t had a start since September is potentially an issue fitness-wise, but he’s been doing plenty of work since his arrival in Oz to keep him ticking over.

Look, there’s a few things working against him, but he could prove a genuine global superstar come Race 7 on Tuesday.

Keep him safe.

• No. 24 Valiant King (10)

VALIANT KING (10) has been getting plenty of attention leading-up to his second attempt in the country’s most famous race, and rightfully so.

He ran 13th last spring at 80/1 beaten over five lengths by the shock winner Knight’s Choice but had a wide alley (21) to overcome and fared much better this year with gate 10 which last produced a winner with Protectionist (2014).

Has had a full 12 months with master trainer Waller now and looks ready to go.

Broke his maiden status down under this campaign winning his way into the field via a dominant 2.75 length Group 3 The Bart Cummings victory here at HQ on October 4 when defeating subsequent Geelong Cup winner Torranzino.

It was his run in the Caulfield Cup however that really pushed him up the markets for Tuesday.

Went around as an underrated hope at 25/1 and really caught the eye the closing stages, coming from near last with only 400m left to go to run into the trifecta and cross under 1.5 lengths off the winner.

If you’re following anything out of the Caulfield Cup, it makes sense that he is it.

In on just 51kg so is the light weight with upside ticking plenty of boxes and Jye McNeil, who won on Twilight Payment in 2020, sticks aboard.

Will he get the trip time round?

Well, he gets the weight and conditions to suit so it is now or never.

Exotics chance.

• No. 21 River Of Stars (14)

RIVER OF STARS (14) is one of the standout double-figure fancies that I think will outrun her price in the Melbourne Cup 2025 finishing order.

Another from the imposing five-horse Waller Cup contingent, this Sea The Stars mare transferred from the French stables of Ralph Beckett to join Waller earlier this year and she’s started to really put it all together now.

She remains a maiden in Australia and hasn’t won since June last year, which isn’t exactly a red flag but does go towards explaining her Melbourne Cup odds.

Finished well out of the money in the Naturalism (8th) and Turnbull Stakes (12th) before relishing a rise in trip to fly home at blowout odds and cross just a half-length away in the Caulfield Cup.

Carried 53.5kg there, so actually gave weight away to Half Yours, and meets him better in the kilos for the rematch.

Beau Mertens retains the ride from barrier 14, and while it has been 20 years since a winner came from that gate, it was a mare with Makybe Diva (2005).

Has winning form up to 2800/2900m overseas and was competitive over the two miles when third in the Group 1 Sydney Cup in the autumn so don’t see the distance as an issue.

Needs to go to another level but has a sense of timing about her and Waller has been singing her praises.

Exotics inclusion.