Managing part-owner Terry Henderson is tipping an upset in Melbourne’s The Vanity on Saturday and believes his Thousand Guineas winning filly Aloisia won’t be at her best until getting out over more in races like the Vinery Stud Stakes and 2018 ATC Oaks in Sydney.
Aloisia kicks off in Melbourne’s The Vanity on Saturday with bigger targets to come in Sydney over the autumn including the Australian Oaks 2018. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
The Aaron Purcell-trained daughter of Azamour is raced by Henderson’s OTI Racing syndicate and to date has won over $630,000 in prize money over eight starts.
She is best known for her Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) success over subsequent Myer Classic winning filly Shoals and her dominant three and a half-length romp home over Cliff’s Edge when taking on the boys in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).
Aloisia then lined-up the odds-on favourite at Flemington on November 9 in the Group 1 VRC Oaks (2500m), but only managed to run three lengths back for sixth to Pinot.
A subsequent Cranbourne trial when eased home last (eighth) behind Lizard Island at Cranbourne on February 5 was a little disappointing, but still she returns at Flemington in the Group 3 $150,000 The Vanity (1400m) on Black Caviar Lightning Day.
“I gave it a three or four out of 10 effort and that is where the stable rated it,” Henderson told Racing Victoria on Friday speaking of the trial.
“We expected it to be a little bit sharper, which she wasn’t.
“Subsequently her work has been OK but maybe she is starting to run up to her breeding and is looking for that 2000m and mile-and-a-half distance [2400m].
“That is the sort of impression she is giving the stable.”
Aloisia has work to do from the outside barrier (11 of 11) on Saturday, but is still tipped by the bookies as the one to beat sitting top of The Vanity odds at $3.60 through Ladbrokes.com.au.
It is an easing price, Aloisia having opened at a shorter $2.25, but one that is still unders according to Henderson.
“Tomorrow, she is at ridiculously short odds I think going into a 1400-metre race,” he said.
“Tomorrow certainly is going to give us an indication of where she is but I think that is the most of what we will get out of tomorrow.”
First-up last time in she ran a luckless fifth to Leather’n’lace over 1400m at Caulfield before the Thousand Guineas triumph, but Henderson does not believe a mile is really the fillies’ trip.
She is in the mix for the Group 1 $1 million Australian Guineas (1600m) back at Flemington in a fortnight’s time and is the $6 co-favourite with Cliff’s Edge in futures betting.
That too is short according to Henderson who is keener on the filly’s chances when she heads to Sydney later in the autumn for the Group 1 $500,000 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) at Rosehill on March 1 and the Group 1 $1 million Australian Oaks (2400m) at Royal Randwick on April 14 during ‘The Championships’.
“I personally think it [the mile] might be too short as well, but I did think that last year with the Thousand Guineas,” he said.
“She got such a great run in the Thousand Guineas last year and does have that turn of foot, but no doubt her best run last prep was her Vase win and I am tending to think that [distance] it is probably her.
“She’ll go to the Vinery over 2000m and then obviously onto the Oaks and it is those races that I’m sure you’ll see the best of her.”
All-in Australian Oaks betting has Aloisia as the $8 favourite.
To get behind Aloisia over the autumn at the right price, visit Ladbrokes.com.au.
