2013 Victoria Derby Form Guide & Betting Stats

This Saturday the season’s richest race for three-year-olds will take centre stage at Flemington Racecourse with the Victoria Derby 2013set to steal the show, the Races.com.au team’s exclusive form guide analysis and betting preview for which is found below.

Savvy Nature is out to become the first Victoria Derby favourite to win since Efficient in 2006. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

Running as Flemington Race 6 at 3:00pm (AEST) this year’s $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) attracted a bumper field of 16 guaranteed starters plus two emergencies that need an early scratching to gain a start.

It’s shaping up as a crack edition of the classic clash too with current Victoria Derby betting markets led by the John O’Shea-trained Savvy Nature ($4.80 or $9.60 at Ladbrokes.com.au’s double the odds markets) who won the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) last weekend by three lengths.

Before their big Vase success however the galloper was twice beaten by the Peter Snowden-trained Complacent when second and third respectively in the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m) and Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) in Sydney.

While the Darley-owned Authorized colt Complacent led Victoria Derby odds earlier in the week, Wednesday’s barrier draw in which they came up with gate 16 saw them ease out to the second line of betting now at $5.50 (or $11 DTO).

The other top chances are then considered to be early market movers Polanski (barrier one) and Complacent’s stablemate San Diego (barrier six) who ran one-two in the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield last start, and both of who pay $6.50 to score a Derby upset.

David Payne’s Spring Champion runner-up Criterion in barrier 14 then follows in the markets at $9 (or $18 DTO) as the only other chance under $16 in the standard fixed win markets.

This is the story the bookies are spinning, but what about the Victoria Derby form, history, facts and stats?

2013 Victoria Derby Form Facts & Betting Stats

Last year’s Victoria Derby winner was the Anthony Cummings-trained Fiveandahalfstar who came off back-to-back Sydney wins, jumped from barrier 5 (of 16) and was ridden by Damien Oliver
Last year’s winning barrier (5) will belong on Saturday to roughie of the pack #12 Throw The King ($101 DTO)
The most successful Victoria Derby jockey in recent years Damien Oliver also has won the Derby with Elvstroem (2003), Amalfi (2001) and Redding (1992); he shoots for his sixth this weekend aboard #5 Drago ($68 DTO)
Cummings meanwhile will look for back-to-back Derby wins saddling up #5 Drago ($68 DTO) and #13 Thunder Fantasy ($102 DTO)

Horse Racing Tip The past six Victoria Derby favourites have all lost – can #3 Savvy Nature buck the trend this year?

This year the only horse following in Fiveandahalfstar’s footsteps with back-to-back Sydney wins to their name is #2 Complacent ($11 DTO)
#4 Polanski ($13 DTO) is drawn in barrier one which is the most successful Victoria Derby barrier in the past 30 years producing four winners
For all the other Victoria Derby barrier statistics follow the link
Two years ago Sangster ran third in the Spring Champion Stakes then ran second in the Norman Robinson in the lead-up, while in 2012 Lion Tamer ran fifth in the Spring Champion then second in the AAMI Vase in Melbourne before their Derby win
This year’s Spring Champion Stakes third placegetter is favourite for Saturday, #3 Savvy Nature ($9.60 DTO), and like Sangster and Lion Tamer had their final lead-up run in Melbourne
The most recent Victoria Derby winner to salute for the punters was Efficient ($2.40 in 2006), the past six including It’s A Dundeel last year have all been beaten
Horses that ran in this year’s Norman Robinson Stakes meanwhile include #4 Polanski (1^st), #6 San Diego (2^nd), #9 Epic Saga (3^rd), #7 Honey Steel’s Gold (4^th), #16 Bring Something (5^th), #15 Famechon (6^th) and #14 Surging Wave (7^th)
Fiveandhalfstar last year was the 10^th last-start winner to win the Victoria Derby since 1986
The three last-start winners in the field are #2 Complacent (Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes, 2000m, Randwick, 12/10/2013), #3 Savvy Nature (Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase, 2050m, Moonee Valley, 26/10/2013) and #4 Polanski (Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes, 2000m, Caulfield, 19/10/2013)
#2 Complacent is out to become the first Spring Champion Stakes – Victoria Derby double winner since Monaco Consul (2009)
Only one Victoria Derby winner since 1986, Redding (1992) who came off a fourth in the MV Vase, didn’t run top three in their lead-up run; this year that rules out #5 Drago (5^th), #7 Honey Steel’s Gold (4^th), #8 Tips And Beers (4^th), #13 Thunder Fantasy (9^th), #14 Surging Wave (7^th), #15 Famechon (6^th), #16 Bring Something (5^th) and the first emergency #17 Cadillac Mountain (9^th)
The Moonee Valley Vase meanwhile has produced seven of the past 11 Victoria Derby winners; horses that come through the race this year are the winner #3 Savvy Nature, #11 Pinstripe Lane (3^rd), #8 Tips And Beers (4^th) and #5 Drago (5^th)
When it comes to Victoria Derby saddle-cloth numbers only two winners since 2001 – Benicio (No. 9 in 2006) and Fivenadahalfstar (No. 6 in 2012) – have won wearing a number great than four; this year the first four in the field are #1 Criterion ($20 DTO), #2 Complacent ($11 DTO), #3 Savvy Nature ($9.60 DTO) and #4 Polanski ($13 DTO)
Two horses boast the equal best Win Rate with #2 Complacent ($10 DTO) and #8 Tips And Beers ($62 DTO) on 60%, followed by #3 Savvy Nature (43%) and #4 Polanski (38%)
The highest Place Rates then belong to #2 Complacent (100%) and #3 Savvy Nature (100%) who are yet to finish out of the money followed by #6 San Diego (83%), #10 Tupac Amaru (80%) and #9 Epic Saga (75%)
Only eight horses have had a previous start at Flemington and of those the only ones to finish in the money are #4 Polanski (2-1-0-0), #7 Honey Steel’s Gold (1-1-0-0), #9 Epic Saga (2-0-1-0), #6 San Diego (1-0-0-1) and #15 Famechon (1-0-0-1)
No horse has stepped up to the 2500m before