Phillip Stokes’ Sir John Monash Stakes winning...
The official Victoria Derby 2013 barrier draw has been conducted with one-time favourite for Saturday’s race Complacent drawing wide in gate 14.
Running as Flemington Race 6 at 3:00pm (AEST), this year’s $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) attracted a final field of 16 starters plus two emergencies when final acceptances closed this morning.
Heading the Victoria Derby betting markets pre-barrier draw was the Peter Snowden-trained son of Authorized Complacent.
Last seen winning the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick on October 12, a Sydney race that has produced three of the past four Victoria Derby winners, Complacent vies for back-to-back Group 1s.
If successful and they salute for the punters, Complacent will become the first horse to complete the Spring Champion – Victoria Derby double in consecutive starts since Monaco Consul did it in 2009.
Other notable winners of the double include Nothin’ Leica Dane (1995) and Stylish Century (1989).
While on paper their barrier 14 draw looks bad, the gate has actually produced three previous winners in the past 30 years.
They will however come into gate 12 (two winners) if the two emergencies #17 Cadillac Mountain (barrier 9) and #18 Empire Rock (barrier 10) fail to gain a start.
Snowden’s two other Victoria Derby 2013 hopes San Diego and Tupac Amaru then drew barriers six and eight respectively, jockeys for the Darley-owned duo yet to be confirmed.
Complacent though will be ridden by a confident Kerrin McEvoy who opted for the favourite over their two stablemates as he attempts to win a fourth 3YO Group 1 for the season.
The other favourite in the Victoria Derby odds is Savvy Nature, John O’Shea’s galloper also failing to draw a gate coming up with barrier 13.
Gate 13 has produced just the one Victoria Derby winner in the past three decades, but it is barrier 11 they will jump from if the emergencies come out.
That would be far more favourable for Savvy Nature statistically speaking as it has produced three past winners in that time.
Savvy Nature backed up from a third in the Spring Champion Stakes to run at Moonee Valley last Saturday.
They won their Melbourne debut in fine fashion too taking out the Group 2 Mitchelton Wines Vase (2050m) by four and a half lengths.
The Moonee Valley Vase has in fact been the most telling Victoria Derby guide in the past 30 years producing 14 winners.
Only one of those however has been in the past half a decade with the ill-fated Lion Tamer in 2010 who was runner-up in the Vase before a Spring Champion fifth and then their Derby success with Glen Boss aboard.
Victoria Derby Barrier Stats
- Winners of the three-year-olds’ classic over the past three decades have been widely spread out across the starting positions indicating the barrier draw has little impact on the Victoria Derby result
- One notable Victoria Derby barrier statistic when looking over the figures going back to 1983 however is that the most successful gate producing four winners is the inside alley which belongs on Saturday to Norman Robinson Stakes winner Polanski
- The Robbie Laing-trained Polanski is sure to firm in Victoria Derby betting, having already been one of the early favourites, after their ideal gate
- The next best with three Derby winners each over the past 30 years are then barriers 2 (Honey Steel’s Gold), 11 (Tips And Beers currently drawn, Savvy Nature without emergencies) and 14 (Criterion currently drawn, Complacent without emergencies)
- Barriers to produce just one Derby winner in that time are then 4 (Famechon), 9 (first emergency Cadillac Mountain currently drawn, second emergency Empire Rock in 10, if both come out belongs to Tips And Beers), 13 (Savvy Nature currently in, Surging Wave without emergencies) and 15 (Surging Wave currently in, Epic Saga with emergencies out)
- The only Victoria Derby barriers not to produce a winner in the past three decades are then 3 (Pinstripe Lane) and 16 (Complacent currently in, Drago without emergencies)
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2013 Victoria Derby Barrier Draw
Flemington Race 6 – 3:00pm (AEST) – 02/11/2013
|1||31166×0022||CRITERION (NZ)||David Payne||Craig Williams||14||55.5kg||94|
|2||22111||COMPLACENT||Peter Snowden||Kerrin McEvoy||16||55.5kg||102|
|3||12×31231||SAVVY NATURE (NZ)||John O’Shea||James McDonald||13||55.5kg||92|
|4||841Dx7811||POLANSKI||Robbie Laing||Hugh Bowman||1||55.5kg||88|
|5||6441×29375||DRAGO||Anthony Cummings||Damien Oliver||18||55.5kg||76|
|6||211×362||SAN DIEGO||Peter Snowden||TBA||6||55.5kg||76|
|7||666311×304||HONEY STEEL’S GOLD||David Hayes||Luke Nolen||2||55.5kg||70|
|8||51114||TIPS AND BEERS||David Hayes||Brett Prebble||11||55.5kg||73|
|9||138×52223||EPIC SAGA||Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra||Chris Symons||17||55.5kg||70|
|10||2×2192||TUPAC AMARU||Peter Snowden||TBA||8||55.5kg||66|
|11||645143||PINSTRIPE LANE (NZ)||John Sadler||Nash Rawiller||3||55.5kg||66|
|12||355×413||THROW THE KING||John Sadler||Thomas Sadler (a)||5||55.5kg||62|
|13||66×1159||THUNDER FANTASY||Anthony Cummings||Peter Robl||7||55.5kg||68|
|14||59×1457||SURGING WAVE||David Hayes||Nicholas Hall||15||55.5kg||63|
|15||432636||FAMECHON||Michael Moroney||Dwayne Dunn||4||55.5kg||64|
|16||4245||BRING SOMETHING||Ken Keys||Glen Boss||12||55.5kg||65|
|17e||2419||CADILLAC MOUNTAIN||Peter G Moody||Daniel Stackhouse||9||55.5kg||62|
|18e||0363||EMPIRE ROCK||David Hayes||Daniel Moor||10||55.5kg||57|
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