2016 Myer Classic Form Guide & Betting Preview

October 28, 2016

2016 Myer Classic Form Guide & Betting Preview

The Myer Classic 2016 pits a field of the season’s best fillies and mares against each other on Victoria Derby Day, a full form guide analysis and betting preview for the mile Flemington classic found below.

Don't Doubt Mamma

Don’t Doubt Mamma is out to be the fourth Myer Classic winner in six years to jump from barrier 13 in the Derby Day classic on Saturday. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.

A field of 15 is engaged for this weekend’s $500,000 Group 1 Myer Classic (1600m), due to jump as Flemington Race 6 at 3:05pm (AEDT) on the bumper Derby Day card.

Of the hopefuls in the weight-for-age features, five are currently under double-figures for the win in the Myer Classic odds at Ladbrokes.com.au.

Recent Myer Classic history shows that all but one of the past six winners jumped at $15 or longer in betting, which doesn’t bode well for the likes of the John Thompson-trained favourite First Seal ($4.50) or Don’t Doubt Mamma ($7) who chases her third win on the trot.

First Seal is best known for her 2014 Flight Stakes win over Winx as a filly, the now five-year-old coming off a Group 2 Tristarc Stakes (1400m) win at Caulfield.

She now leads Myer Classic betting after drawing barrier one, out to complete a double last achieved by Red Tracer (2013) who was also the last favourite in the Group 1 to salute for the punters.

Don’t Doubt Mamma meanwhile boasts the outstanding Flemington track record of three wins and a second from six starts, returning to the course for the first time since her Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes (1400m) on September 10.

She has subsequently won Moonee Valley’s Group 2 Stocks Stakes (1600m) and has been freshened-up since ahead of her Group 1 test this Saturday.

Also high up the markets are the likes of Sydney raider Dixie Blossoms ($7) and the Group 1 placed filly Whispering Brook ($7.50) out to make history as the first three-year-old Myer Classic winner.

That’s the story told by the bookmakers, but does the 2016 Myer Classic form guide and betting history reveal value in the markets?

Just one of the past six Myer Classic winners jumped under $15 in betting

2016 Myer Classic Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Myer Classic winner was the Robert Smerdon-trained Politeness (2015) who came off a Group 3 Northwood Plume Stakes win a Caulfield and jumped from barrier 10 (of 15) with Dwayne Dunn riding the $20 shot to victory
  • The past five Myer Classic winners all came off a last start Caulfield start; the runners that follow that form this year are: #2 First Seal, #4 Danish Twist, #6 French Emotion, #8 Serene Majesty, #9 Pearls, #11 Denmagic, #12 Euro Angel and #14 Whispering Brook
  • The previous Myer Classic winning trainers with a runner this year are: Chris Waller (6-1-1-1) with #6 French Emotion ($31), Tony McEvoy (3-1-0-0) with #7 Don’t Doubt Mamma ($7), Peter Snowden (6-1-0-1) with #8 Serene Majesty ($21) and John Hawkes (8-2-0-1) with #12 Euro Angel ($11)
Co-trainer John Hawkes shoots for a third Myer Classic win this year with Euro Angel
  • Last year’s winning hoop Dwayne Dunn chases back-to-back wins this year aboard #7 Don’t Doubt Mamma
  • The other previous Myer Classic winning jockeys with a ride this year are: Kerrin McEvoy (12-1-1-1) on #8 Serene Majesty and Craig Williams (11-1-2-0) on #13 Pure Pride ($41)
  • Last year’s winning Myer Classic barrier (10) has produced 2 winners (since 1995) and belongs this year to #15 I Am A Star ($17)
  • The most successful barrier in that time producing three Myer Classic wines is gate 11, drawn this year by #12 Euro Angel
  • Barrier 13 has produced three of the past five Myer Classic winners; this year the coveted gate 13 belongs to #7 Don’t Doubt Mamma
  • No three-year-old filly has ever won the Myer Classic; this year #14 Whispering Brook and #15 I Am A Star are out to be the first
  • Five-year-olds have the best record in the past decade with four wins; the 5YOs in the mix this year are: #2 First Seal, #4 Danish Twist, #5 Heavens Above and #6 French Emotion
  • The Tristarc Stakes has produced three Myer Classic winners in the past 10 years including Red Tracer (1st in 2013) who completed the double
  • #2 First Seal chases the Tristarc Stakes – Myer Classic double this year
First Seal is out to complete the Tristarc Stakes – Myer Classic double for the first time since Red Tracer in 2013
  • The other Tristarc Stakes graduates backing up in the Myer Classic field this year are: Pearls (3rd), Denmagic (4th), Danish Twist (5th) and French Emotion (6th)
  • Favourites won three times on the trot from 2007-09, but Red Tracer (2013) is the only Myer Classic favourite to win since and the only one to salute under $15 in betting
  • #2 First Seal ($4.50) is out to be the next favourite to win for the punters
  • Along with #2 First Seal the other fillies under $15 out to break the hoodoo for single-figure fancies are #4 Danish Twist, #7 Don’t Doubt Mamma, #10 Dixie Blossoms and #14 Whispering Brook
  • Market mover #12 Euro Angel ($11) is also under $15 in Myer Classic betting
  • The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #14 Whispering Brook (63%) followed by #12 Euro Angel (50%) and #7 Don’t Doubt Mamma (44%)
  • The highest Place Rate of the field belongs to #12 Euro Angel (100%) followed by #14 Whispering Brook (88%), #10 Dixie Blossoms (78%), #6 French Emotion (76%) and #4 Danish Twist (75%)
  • Runners with the best winning Flemington track record are: #7 Don’t Doubt Mamma (6-3-1-0), #12 Euro Angel (2-1-1-0), #6 French Emotion (2-1-0-0) and #15 I Am A Star (1-1-0-0)
Don’t Doubt Mamma is a Flemington track specialist with an ace record at the course (6-3-1-0)
  • Runners with the best winning form over the distance (1600m) are: #3 Zanbagh (7-2-0-0), #5 Heavens Above (5-1-1-2), #7 Don’t Doubt Mamma (3-1-0-1), #10 Dixie Blossoms (2-1-1-0), #11 Denmagic (2-1-1-0), #12 Euro Angel (2-1-1-0) and #2 First Seal (3-1-0-0)

Stay tuned for our insider Myer Classic betting tips.

In the meantime check out the full 2016 Myer Classic form guide below, courtesy of Ladbrokes.com.au – home of Enhanced Odds (T&Cs apply).

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