The punters are coming for the Joe Pride-trained...
This Saturday the 2012 Victoria Derby is set to take place at Flemington Racecourse as the marquee race on the opening Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting and with a history of upsets in the three-year-olds’ classic below is the Races.com.au’s exclusive Victoria Derby form and betting guide to help you back the winner.
Due to run as Flemington Race 6 at 3:00pm (AEST) the $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) has attracted a capacity field of 16 three-year-olds, the short-priced favourite of which is the Murray Baker-trained Kiwi It’s A Dundeel.
Sitting top of the Victoria Derby odds at bookmaker.com.au paying $2.80, It’s A Dundeel is out to atone for their first ever loss last start when going down in a shock defeat on Cox Plate Day.
Outside of It’s A Dundeel it is an open Victoria Derby betting market with three hopefuls all installed as the equal $7 second pick with Norman Robinson Stakes winner Hvasstan, runner-up Honorius, and It’s A Dundeel’s last start conqueror Super Cool.
This is what the Victoria Derby odds are saying but will one of the top fancies be successful? Or will there be an upset Victoria Derby result from a double-figure outsider as there was last year with $12 chance Sangster?
Having gone over the field and history on this classic clash below we have the must know Victoria Derby facts and form guide facts to help you lock in the winning Victoria Derby trifecta!
2012 Victoria Derby Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Victoria Derby winner was Kiwi raider Sangster who came off a third in the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney and a second in the Norman Robinson Stakes, and who was ridden by Hugh Bowman from barrier 7 (of 16)
- This year’s favourite is a New Zealand-trained galloper with #1 It’s A Dundeel ($2.80) who has drawn barrier 10 (of 16); the last Victoria Derby winner to jump from barrier 10 was Fire Oak (1990)
- Last year’s winning barrier (7) meanwhile belongs to #8 Electric Fusion ($11) while Bowman will shoot for his third straight Derby victory (having also ridden 2010 winner Lion Tamer) with outside chance #12 Costa Nova ($61)
- Other horses to be ridden by a former Victoria Derby winning jockey meanwhile are #6 Fiveandahalfstar (Damien Oliver), #3 Honorius (Corey Brown), #4 Super Cool (Michael Rodd), #3 Hvasstan (Glen Boss) and #11 Malabar Man (Craig Williams)
- There have also been 12 Victoria Derby winners in the past three decades to start from double-digit gates including three in the last seven years
- Along with Sangster there have been two other recent Victoria Derby winners prepared across the ditch with Lion Tamer (2010) and Monaco Consul (2009) – all three having come via the Spring Champion Stakes
- #1 It’s A Dundeel also comes via the Spring Champion Stakes having won the Group 1 feature and is prepared by the same man who trained Lion Tamer – Murray Baker
- Along with #1 It’s A Dundeel other horses to be prepared by a former Victoria Derby winning trainer are then #13 Our Desert Warrior (Gai Waterhouse) and #15 Rawnaq (David Hayes)
- Adding to that form is the fact that both Lion Tamer and Sangster also ran in the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill before the Spring Champion, a Group 3 race which #1 It’s A Dundeel won three starts back in just their third race down under
- Favourites have only one eight times since 1982 (including six in the past 20 years) – this year #1 It’s A Dundeel will look to become the 9th
- Interestingly 7 of those 8 Derby favourites to win had a run at Moonee Valley seven days earlier
- The other Derby hopeful that ran in the Spring Champion was #3 Honorius ($7) who ran third as Sangster did last year
- Meanwhile horses that come via the Norman Robinson Stakes this year are #5 Hvasstan (1st), #3 Honorius (2nd), #8 Electric Fusion (3rd), #9 Subiaso (4th), #12 Costa Nova (6th) and #2 Jimando (7th)
- #3 Honorius is the only horse to run in both the Spring Champion and the Norman Robinson and place in both the way Sangster did before their Derby win 12 months ago
- Before Sangster however the last Derby winner to have come via the Norman Robinson Stakes was then Amalfi (2001)
- There are three last-start winners in the mix with #4 Super Cool (Group 2 Mitchelton Wines Vase, 2040m, Moonee Valley, 27/10/2012), #5 Hvasstan (Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes, 2000m, Caulfield, 20/10/2012) and #6 Fiveandahalfstar (Sportingbet 3YO BM72, 1800m, Rosehill, 27/10/2012)
- The MV Vase has produced the most Victoria Derby winners since 1986 than any other race including 14 of the past 26
- Along with the Vase quinella – #4 Super Cool (1st) and #1 It’s A Dundeel (2nd) – other Derby hopefuls that ran in the Cox Plate Day event last Saturday include #10 Bullion Express (4th) and #14 Nisos (5th)
- Five horses in the past 26 years have then won the Vase – Derby double which #4 Super Cool ($7) shoots for in 2012
- Only 2 of the past 30 Derby winners didn’t place in their final lead-up runs, and no Derby winner since 1992 finished out of the money the run before which rules out #2 Jimando (7th), #9 Subiaso (4th), #10 Bullion Express (4th), #12 Costa Nova (6th), #13 Our Desert Warrior (4th), #14 Nisos (5th) and #15 Rawnaq (12th) this year
- #1 It’s A Dundeel boasts the highest Win Rate by far with 83.33% followed by #5 Hvasstan (50.00%) and #4 Super Cool (40.00%)
- Yet to finish out of the money #1 It’s A Dundeel also has the best Place Percentage with 100% followed by #5 Hvasstan (83.33%), #7 Escado (75%) and #8 Electric Fusion (75%)
- #2 Jimando (3-1-0-1) is the only horse with previous winning form at Flemington having won the Listed Henry Bucks Best Dressed (1400m) back in September
- Horses to have placed at the track before are then #7 Escado (3-0-0-2), #5 Hvasstan (1-0-1-0) and #9 Subiaso (2-0-0-1)
- None of the youngsters have been to the 2500m before
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Victoria Derby tips to be published shortly.
Already have the Victoria Derby winner picked out based on the above facts and stats? To get behind your favourite at the best prices head to bookmaker.com.au and bet with confidence knowing they are 100 percent Australian owned, operated and trusted.
2012 Victoria Derby Field & Form Guide
Flemington Race 6 – 3:00pm (AEST) – 03/11/2012
|1.||IT’S A DUNDEEL||M P Baker||James Mc Donald||10||55.5||3yoC||7||$75,151||6: 5 1 0||83.33%||100.00%||x11112|
|2.||JIMANDO||Tony Mcevoy||Matthew Neilson||6||55.5||3yoC||14||$27,489||9: 3 0 3||33.33%||66.67%||x11337|
|3.||HONORIUS||David Payne||Corey Brown||2||55.5||3yoC||14||$19,759||11: 2 2 2||18.18%||54.55%||1×3232|
|4.||SUPER COOL||M A Kavanagh||Michael Rodd||11||55.5||3yoG||7||$35,510||5: 2 1 0||40.00%||60.00%||6×1421|
|5.||HVASSTAN||Peter Gelagotis||Glen Boss||9||55.5||3yoC||14||$35,246||6: 3 2 0||50.00%||83.33%||421121|
|6.||FIVEANDAHALFSTAR||A J Cummings||Damien Oliver||5||55.5||3yoG||7||$7,090||14: 2 2 1||14.29%||35.71%||465511|
|7.||ESCADO||M W Laurie||Ben Melham||12||55.5||3yoG||10||$9,101||8: 2 1 3||25.00%||75.00%||312653|
|8.||ELECTRIC FUSION||R W Smerdon||Nicholas Hall||7||55.5||3yoG||14||$9,448||4: 1 1 1||25.00%||75.00%||8213|
|9.||SUBIASO||R E Laing||Steven Arnold||8||55.5||3yoC||14||$5,269||6: 1 1 1||16.67%||50.00%||3×1294|
|10.||BULLION EXPRESS||D Binaisse||Vlad Duric||16||55.5||3yoC||7||$3,224||9: 1 1 2||11.11%||44.44%||413394|
|11.||MALABAR MAN||M C Kent||Craig Williams||15||55.5||3yoC||10||$9,092||3: 0 2 0||0.00%||66.67%||422|
|12.||COSTA NOVA||M Ellerton and S Zahra||Hugh Bowman||14||55.5||3yoG||14||$3,354||7: 0 2 2||0.00%||57.14%||x23206|
|13.||OUR DESERT WARRIOR||Ms G Waterhouse||Nash Rawiller||13||55.5||3yoC||10||$6,433||3: 1 0 0||33.33%||33.33%||144|
|14.||NISOS||Paul Rocke||Billy Egan||3||55.5||3yoG||7||$2,579||7: 0 1 2||0.00%||42.86%||4×2535|
|15.||RAWNAQ||D A Hayes||Michael Walker||4||55.5||3yoC||28||$3,162||5: 1 1 0||20.00%||40.00%||16270|
|16.||BATISTUTA||A R Coffey||Dean Yendall||1||55.5||3yoC||5||$3,490||3: 1 0 1||33.33%||66.67%||613|
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change
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