The race formerly known as the Yellowglen Stakes runs on Victoria Derby Day this Saturday at Flemington Racecourse as the Guvera Stakes 2015, betting tips for the handicap clash detailed below.
Messene is the Races.com.au tip to win the 2015 Guvera Stakes at Flemington off the back of a good run in the Epsom behind subsequent Cox Plate winner Winx. Photo: Steve Hart.
A field of 15 remains in contention for Flemington Race 3 at 1:00pm (AEST) after the early scratching of the widely-drawn Gracious Prospect from this year’s $200,000 Group 3 Guvera Stakes (1400m) line-up.
Leading the current Guvera Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au, where punters will enjoy an Extra 50% on their very first Fixed Odds winner in Flemington Races 1 – 5 on Saturday, at a quote of $3.80 is the Lee & Anthony Freedman-trained Disposition.
Drawn wide in barrier 11 for Damien Oliver, who has a gun Victoria Derby Day record over the years, to overcome the Reset four-year-old comes off back-to-back Group 1 seconds at Caulfield.
The first was behind Stratum Star in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) before he was defeated by another Darren Weir-trained runner Lucky Hussler in the Toorak Handicap (1600m) on October 10.
He drops down in class and back to 1400m this weekend after his second win at Flemington this prep following a first-up victory in black-type company at this track and distance on September 12.
Also at single figures in Guvera Stakes betting this year are the early market mover Artlee ($9 into $6.50) who is drawn for a gun run in barrier two second-up and Good Project ($7.50) who had less luck with the gates out in 13 with Jim Cassidy in the saddle.
Muswellbrooks’ Todd Willan saddle-sup Excellent art gelding Artlee who won three on the trot during an autumn – winter campaign before returning for a brave third to Dothraki in the Listed Tattersall’s Club Lightning Stakes (1100m) at Randwick on October 17.
Good Project is in flying form for Cox Plate winning trainer Chris Waller, the Not A Single Doubt stallion winning over the mile at Randwick last time out for his sixth place from seven runs over the distance.
The next best in betting at longer odds for an upset include consistent Hussonet six-year-old Charmed Harmony ($10), the rails-drawn San Diego ($11) with James McDonald booked for the ride on the John O’Shea-trained galloper, the returning Red Excitement ($12) and Messene ($12) for Team Hawkes.
So will the favourite Disposition salute for the punters or is there value further down the markets for Saturday’s Guvera Stakes?
1st
#2 Messene ($12)
This Lonhro seven-year-old gives weight away carrying 58.5kg but even so looks the class horse to beat coming off some outstanding form that is set to stack up. He jumps from a gun gate four that will give him the run of the race over a distance he loves (6-3-1-1) for his first Melbourne run since September last year. Flemington may not be where he does his best work, but his last start fourth to Winx when beaten only 2.5 lengths in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) by the subsequent runaway Cox Plate hero is hard to knock.
2nd
#3 Disposition ($3.80)
Deserving favourite who will take some beating even from the double-digit barrier. Oliver is back in the saddle after winning on the horse over 1400m at this track two back before this progressive four-year-old was beaten a mere short half-head in the Sir Rupert Clarke. His latest lead-up was another brave second in Group 1 company in Melbourne when runner-up in the Toorak over a mile. Drop back in class and distance are big ticks, he’s a previous Flemington winner and with the right run midfield he has the finish over this trip to fire at the end.
3rd
#7 Charmed Harmony ($10)
Plenty of livewire place chances including this galloper who has won five of his past six runs. From three at Flemington over his career he has won two, both over the 1400m he runs over on Saturday. Over the distance in total he has won seven from 12, and the fifth in the Sir Rupert Clarke last time out was brave with only 1.35 lengths separating he and the winner. With a freshen-up and a return to the Flemington straight, where he went back-to-back by big margins at this distance earlier in the year, Sadler’s runner is a definite danger even from out wide with Caulfield cup winning hoop Opie Bosson taking the mount.
Get behind you Victoria Derby Day selections at Ladbrokes.com.au on Saturday and enjoy access to Best Tote or SP + 20% across the card to win more at Flemington!
