Will Lidari’s Luck Get Him Across the Line in the 2014 Caulfield Cup?

Trainer Peter Moody has had a lot of luck on his side in regards to the 2014 Caulfield Cup.

Lucia Valentina (outside), Lidari (centre) & Brambles (inside) will all face off in the Caulfield Cup this Saturday. Photo by Race Horse Photos Australia.

Lidari earned a spot on the field in the final hours following the early withdrawal of UK mare My Ambivalent, while first emergency Brambles was guaranteed a start when Gris Caro was scratched on Thursday due to injury.

Both of his runners also did well in the barrier draw, with Lidari earning a start from barrier four and Brambles from 11. However they’ll each actually start one gate in following the scratchings of Gris Caro (3) and Bande (10).

So the question remains – can Moody’s luck translate to a win in the $3 million Group 1 Crown Golden Ale Caulfield Cup? And is Lidari the horse to win it for him?

The five-year-old’s recent form is good, despite not taking out a win since March in the Group 2 Blamey Stakes (1600m). He just missed out on third in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) after being interfered with at the turn and also missed out on a placing in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m).

Lidari has yet to win a Group One race but came very close his last time out in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m). He looked a real hope but was run down late in a strong effort by Lucia Valentina, finishing just half a length in second.

The horse opened the Caulfield Cup betting market at Ladbrokes.com.au with a price of $17 but has seen a lot of support following the scratching of Bande and is now third-favourite at $9.50.

Caulfield Cup Horse Form: #14 Lidari

Barrier: 4 (into 3)
Weight: 5kg
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Peter Moody
Owners: O T I Management P/L, Bobbin Along, Leedareee, Glenlogan Park, Dycer Racing, Mr L A Reichelt, Mr J C Higgins, Jackss, Uthmeyer Racing, Werrett Bloodstock Pty Ltd, The Golden Greeks Racing
Age: 6YO
Gender: Horse
Breeding: by Acclamation (GB) from Laxlova (FR)
Career: 24:7-3-3
Win: 29%
Place: 54%
Last 6: 0X5442
Prize Money: $545,485
Track: 4:1-0-0
Distance: 3:2-0-0
Current 2014 Caulfield Cup Odds: $9.50

Why Lidari Can Win The 2014 Caulfield Cup

Will get a great start from barrier 4 (into 3)
Is in-form following a fast-finishing second in the Turnbull Stakes
The Turnbull Stakes is the best lead-up race for the Caulfield Cup (2013 winner Fawkner and third Dear Demi both came from the Turnbull)
Proven winner over the distance (2/3)
Ideal weight at 53.5kg since light weight chances have a good recent record (winners in both 2010 and 2011 carried 52.5kg to victory)
Will have a fast run after decrease in weight to 53.5kg (was 55.5kg in Turnbull, 59kg in Underwood and Feehan)
Ideal age to win it with 6YOs winning 7 times since 1983

Why Lidari Will Miss Out On A 2014 Caulfield Cup Win

Already lost to Lucia Valentina last time out
Hasn’t won a race since March and has never taken out a top level race
Has a low Win Rate compared to others on the field
Hasn’t run 2400m distance since July 2012 and never in Australia

Lidari has received a lot of support from punters to win the 2014 Caulfield Cup. If you think he can do it, you’ll find the best odds at Ladbrokes.com.au.

For just $3 you could win $3,000,000 this Caulfield Cup Day. Just pick the winners of each 8 feature races in the Ladbrokes Mega Pick and you’ll win the $3 million prize money if you get them all right.