2011 The BMW Field, Form Guide & Betting Analysis

April 1, 2011

2011 The BMW Field, Form Guide & Betting Analysis

Tomorrow Rosehill Gardens will come to life with the $7.5 million Golden Slipper Day featuring a crack line-up of nine Group races including the $2.25 million Group 1 The BMW (2400m).

The 2011 The BMW is scheduled to run as Rosehill Race 5 at 2:25pm (AEDST) tomorrow and features a field of 11 talented weight-for-age runners.

Descarado

Descarado has been one of the best backed runners to win The BMW at Rosehill

Current favourite in the betting markets is last year’s runner-up Maluckyday, drawn on the inside barrier and sitting at an easing price of $3.

When the post-field markets for The BMW were released, Zabeel four-year-old Maluckyday was paying $2.70 but money for his rivals has seen odds on the favourite drift out.

Last start Maluckyday disappointed punters in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes (2000m) here at Rosehill finishing four lengths away fourth to surprise winner and $101 roughie Zavite.

Zavite is out to become the seventh horse in history and the first since Eremein in 2006 to complete the Ranvet Stakes / The BMW double and is currently rated a $14 chance to do so.

Meanwhile, odds on The BMW second elect and Ranvet Stakes runner-up Descarado have continued to firm.

Gai Waterhouse’s Caulfield Cup winner has come in from $3.60 to $3.40 in the past day.

“Descarado is clearly on top here after being narrowly beaten in the Ranvet by Zavite last start,” Luxbet’s Bookmaker Paul Vincent told Races.com.au.

“There was a distinct gap back to the 3rd & 4th placegetters (Hawk Island, Maluckyday) which I doubt they can overturn.”

“The last time Descarado was at this distance he won the Caulfield Cup and he is adept in all types of going.”

That’s what the bookies have to say but what does The BMW form guide reveal?

Below are the essential form guide facts, statistics and betting analysis on The BMW field for 2011.

2011 The BMW Field & Form Guide Facts

  • #8 Maluckyday boasts the equal best Win Rate of the field along with #11 Laristan both having won 45% of their starts
  • The next best Win Rate belongs to Kiwi galloper #4 Ginga Dude with 30%
  • Based on Place Percentages the best chances to finish in the minor placings tomorrow are #7 Linton (42% Place Rate), #6 Descarado (39% Place Rate) and #5 Mourayan (38% Place Rate)
  • #1 Zavite is the only horse to have run and won at The BMW Track & Distance
  • Zavite is also the most experienced of the field over 2400m having had 16 starts at the distance for three wins and three seconds
  • Other horses with a solid record over the 2400m The BMW distance are #6 Descarado (2-1-1-0), #7 Linton (1-1-0-0), #8 Maluckyday (1-1-0-0), #9 Cedarberg (4-1-2-0) and #11 Laristan (1-1-0-0)
  • Last year’s The BMW winner Littorio jumped from barrier seven with Craig Williams in the mount and was coming off a seventh place finish in the 2010 Ranvet Stakes
  • This year #6 Descarado has drawn barrier seven and #11 Laristan will be ridden by Craig Williams
  • Two other horses are to be ridden by a previous The BMW winning hoop with #1 Zavite (Glen Boss) and #9 Cedarberg (Damien Oliver)
  • There are also two runners that are prepared by a previous The BMW winning trainer with the Gai Waterhouse-trained Descarado and the Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes-trained Maluckyday

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