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The weather has become one of the biggest late storylines ahead of the 2026 Melbourne Cup, with overnight rain forcing a downgrade of the Flemington surface and potentially reshaping the market just hours before ‘the race that stops a nation’ at 3:00pm (AEDT).
After beginning the week rated a Good 4, Flemington has officially shifted to a Soft 5 on Melbourne Cup Day following 7.4mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours and 19.2mm over the past seven days. The rail remains out 3m around the entire circuit, with the track inspection completed at 6am on Tuesday morning.
For punters looking for an edge, the evolving Melbourne Cup 2026 track rating, weather forecast, and wet-track profiles of the leading contenders could prove just as important as barrier draws and weights.
Melbourne Cup Day 2026 Weather Forecast
The good news for racegoers is most of the rain appears to have done its damage overnight.
Forecasts indicate only a slight chance of a light shower early before conditions improve significantly throughout the day. Temperatures are expected to sit between 14°C and 18°C, with overcast skies clearing into the afternoon and the Cup expected to be run in dry conditions around 3pm.
While the rain won’t be enough to create a genuine wet-track slog, it has left enough moisture in the ground to slightly favour horses with proven soft-track form.
Flemington Track Conditions – Melbourne Cup Day 2026
- Track Rating: Soft 5
- Track Type: Turf
- Rail Position: Out 3m Entire Circuit
- Weather: Overcast becoming fine
- Rainfall: 7.4mm last 24 hours
- Moisture Reading: 38%
- Going Stick: 8.9
- Shear: 11.2
The expectation is the track may improve later in the day if Melbourne receives no further rainfall, but punters should still be assessing runners through a Soft 5 lens.
Which Melbourne Cup 2026 Horses Are Suited by the Soft 5?
A rain-affected Flemington track could bring several runners sharply into calculations.
No. 11 Juja Kibo (Barrier 14)
One of the obvious winners from the track downgrade.
The Ciaron Maher-trained stayer boasts an excellent Soft track record of 3 wins and 3 placings from six starts, including his dominant Group 2 The Metropolitan victory on a Soft 6 at Randwick.
Already arriving off consecutive wins in the Metropolitan and Moonee Valley Cup, Juja Kibo profiles as one of the strongest wet-track credentials in the entire field.
| 11. Juja Kibo (14) 55kgx3211 | |||
| Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 0.5 len in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m defeating Kings Valley carrying 58kg at $7.50. Before that ran on from midfield and won by 1.75 len in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m in soft going defeating Aethelwulf with 56.5kg at $5.50. Flying off moderate tempos, if he can convert that to two miles he’ll run well. | |||
No. 5 Vauban (Barrier 22)
The veteran French import is another runner who shouldn’t be inconvenienced by any sting out of the track.
Vauban owns a superb record of:
- 13 starts on Soft tracks
- 5 wins
- 2 seconds
- 3 thirds
His Group 1 Tancred Stakes placing came on a Soft 6, and the Soft 5 conditions remove one of the concerns surrounding his fourth Melbourne Cup attempt.
| 5. Vauban (22) 56.5kg133×9 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after five months 9th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 6 len behind Point Of Law carrying 60.5kg at $19. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 in the G1 He Tancred Stakes at Rosehill on March 28 over 2400m, slow going 5 len behind Aeliana carrying 59kg at $7. Fourth crack at the Cup, only second up here and 3200m remains a worry. | |||
No. 24 Shockletz (Barrier 17)
The lightweight mare enters calculations with:
- 7 starts on Soft tracks
- 3 wins
- 1 second
Her victory in the Group 3 Archer Stakes over 2500m at Flemington and recent Tesio Stakes second suggest she could relish conditions if the surface remains rain-affected.
With only 51kg, she’s becoming an increasingly attractive roughie.
Read more on whether Shockletz can win the Melbourne Cup like her father Shocking.
| 24. Shockletz (17) 51kg64162 | |||
| At the latest run 2nd of 15 in the G3 Tesio Stakes at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 0.5 len behind Soverato with 58kg at $7.50. Before that 6th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.75 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $6. Past two have been excellent Cup trials and now up in trip with no weight, look out. | |||
No. 16 So You Are (Barrier 16)
Bjorn Baker’s in-form stayer has done some of his best work on rain-affected ground.
His record reads:
- 13 Soft-track starts
- 3 wins
- 5 seconds
Importantly, one of his latest victories came in the ATC St Leger on a Soft 6, indicating the Soft 5 shouldn’t cause any concern.
Find out more on whether So You Are can keep the wins coming in the Melbourne Cup.
| 16. So You Are (7) 54kg21111 | |||
| On a four run winning streak. At the latest run favourite; won by 0.8 len in the G3 Bendigo Cup on October 28 over 2400m defeating Berkeley Square carrying 58.5kg at $3.60. Before that favourite; tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 0.9 len in the G3 Atc St Leger Stakes at Randwick on October 17 over 2600m in soft going defeating Tempesti with 57.5kg at $3.30. Other form potentially stronger but he’s flying, not the worst. | |||
No. 7 Royal Supremacy (Barrier 21)
While his overall soft-track statistics aren’t outstanding, he has already shown he can excel in testing ground after winning the Group 2 Q22 on a Heavy 9.
If the track deteriorated further he would become significantly more interesting.
| 7. Royal Supremacy (21) 56kg1×910 | |||
| Last start 15th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 17 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $13. The run before that won by 0.8 len in the G3 Jra Cup at Caulfield on September 27 over 2000m defeating Future History with 60kg at $4.80. Had some excuses last time but 3200m is a worry. | |||
No. 22 Mr Monaco (Barrier 10)
The Bart Cummings winner is clearly better when there’s give in the ground.
His Flemington Bart Cummings victory came on a Heavy 8, and connections have repeatedly indicated he performs best when able to get his toe into the track.
| 22. Mr Monaco (16) 52.5kgx4013 | |||
| Most recently ran on from midfield; 3rd of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 0.8 len behind Juja Kibo carrying 57.5kg at $16. The start before that raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 1.3 len in a G3 The Bart Cummings at this track on October 3 over 2520m in the wet defeating Litzdeel carrying 54kg at $8. Past two have been good, should run well for wider exotics. | |||
Melbourne Cup 2026 Horses That Prefer a Firm Track
Not every runner will welcome the rain.
A number of leading contenders would have preferred Flemington drying back towards a Good 4.
No. 2 Trustyourinstinct (Barrier 18)
This is perhaps the most notable track-rating angle in the race.
Trainer Joseph O’Brien has publicly stated the Group 2 Curragh Cup winner is best suited on dry ground, and his strongest performances have consistently come on good surfaces.
While his soft-track statistics remain respectable (3 wins from 10 starts), the stable has been vocal in wanting a firm Flemington deck.
If the Soft 5 remains in place, it’s a small negative for one of the market elects.
No. 20 Point Of Law (Barrier 9)
The Geelong Cup winner has raced exclusively on good surfaces so far, winning three of five starts.
Importantly:
- 5 starts on Good tracks
- 3 wins
- 1 second
His profile suggests a drying track would have been ideal, although there is no evidence he can’t handle some cut in the ground.
It’s simply an unknown.
No. 12 Hopewell Rock (Barrier 15)
The exciting George Boughey-trained import has built his reputation primarily on good and good-to-soft tracks in Europe.
His lone heavy-track run resulted in a ninth placing at Doncaster, suggesting genuinely wet ground may not be ideal.
A Soft 5 isn’t heavy, but punters backing Hopewell Rock would likely prefer conditions improving throughout the program.
No. 8 Wine Dark Sea (Barrier 23)
Three of his four career victories have come on good or good-firm tracks.
His explosive UK form was produced on fast summer surfaces, making today’s softened Flemington track a slight concern.
No. 15 Zahrann (Barrier 11)
One horse clearly wanting a firmer track.
His Turnbull Stakes run on a Heavy 8 was disappointing, beaten nearly 19 lengths, and his profile shows far superior performances on top of the ground.
A return toward Good conditions would be a major positive.
Melbourne Cup 2026 Track Report: The Biggest Winners
If Flemington remains a genuine Soft 5, the runners arguably receiving the biggest boost are:
- Juja Kibo
- Vauban
- Shockletz
- So You Are
- Mr Monaco
- Goodie Two Shoes (placed in last year’s Melbourne Cup on a Soft 5)
Meanwhile, the horses that would likely prefer the track improving into the afternoon include:
- Trustyourinstinct
- Point Of Law
- Hopewell Rock
- Wine Dark Sea
- Zahrann
Melbourne Cup 2026 Field Update: Late Scratchings & Market Movers
There have been no Melbourne Cup race-day withdrawals from the final field itself, but the race has already lost some depth through the week with Defiantly and Stinger Glass failing to make it to the starting line.
Their absence opened the door for runners including Future History and Kizlyar, with Joseph O’Brien and Ciaron Maher continuing to dominate the race numerically.
Between them, the two powerhouse stables account for an incredible 12 runners in the final Melbourne Cup 2026 field, giving both trainers multiple winning chances regardless of how the track plays.
Verdict: Who Does the Soft 5 Help Most?
The overnight rain looks unlikely to dramatically alter the complexion of the 3200m feature, but it does subtly favour proven wet-track stayers.
Juja Kibo looks one of the biggest beneficiaries after winning the Metropolitan on a Soft 6 and arriving in career-best form. Vauban, Shockletz, Mr Monaco, and So You Are are others whose stocks rise slightly.
For punters chasing runners potentially disadvantaged by the downgrade, Trustyourinstinct stands out after connections indicated a preference for firm ground, while the lightly-raced internationals Point Of Law and Hopewell Rock would likely prefer the surface drying back towards Good.
With skies forecast to clear before the 3pm jump, the Flemington surface could still improve throughout the day, ensuring the final Melbourne Cup 2026 track rating, weather updates, and late betting moves remain crucial factors right up until race time.
Happy Cup Day punters!
Melbourne Cup 2026 Odds
| 1. Sons And Lovers (3) 57.5kg44512 | |||
| Comes here off a 52-day let-up. Last start 2nd of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 2.25 len behind Arabian Crown with 63.5kg at $15. The race before that won by a head in the G2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil at Longchamp on July 14 over 2800m defeating Parachutiste carrying 59kg at $2.60. Top weight but brings classy international form and should go very well. | |||
| 2. Trustyourinstinct (18) 57kg21214 | |||
| Comes off a 51 day let-up. Last start 4th of 7 in the G1 Irish St Leger Stakes at Curragh on September 13 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Scandinavia carrying 61.5kg at $7.50. Before that won by 0.8 len in the G2 Curragh Cup on July 19 over 2816m defeating Happy Pharoah carrying 62kg at $7.50. Brings a lovely profile and strong international form, and the man in the saddle goes okay too. | |||
| 3. Knight’s Choice (2) 56.5kgx0930 | |||
| Most recently eased back early on 14th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 10 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $31. Before that ran on from midfield; 3rd of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, head behind Pinhole with 56kg at $7. Shock winner of 2024 Cup with more weight this time, hard to see him repeating the dose. | |||
| 4. Middle Earth (1) 56.5kg87898 | |||
| At the latest run eased back early on 8th of 12 in the G1 Ws Cox Plate at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 7 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 59kg at $71. The race before that 9th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $61. Ticking along as well as he was last year and has claims. | |||
| 5. Vauban (22) 56.5kg133×9 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after five months 9th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 6 len behind Point Of Law carrying 60.5kg at $19. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 in the G1 He Tancred Stakes at Rosehill on March 28 over 2400m, slow going 5 len behind Aeliana carrying 59kg at $7. Fourth crack at the Cup, only second up here and 3200m remains a worry. | |||
| 6. Enfjaar (8) 56kg381×3 | |||
| Second run back. First-up after three months held ground to the line 3rd of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 1.0 len behind Kingswood carrying 54.5kg at $12. Previously second-up 8th of 16 in the LR Wolferton Stakes at Ascot on June 16 over 2011m, 5 len behind Map Of Stars carrying 59.5kg at $13. Very game first up, not sure he wants 3200m though. | |||
| 7. Royal Supremacy (21) 56kg1×910 | |||
| Last start 15th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 17 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $13. The run before that won by 0.8 len in the G3 Jra Cup at Caulfield on September 27 over 2000m defeating Future History with 60kg at $4.80. Had some excuses last time but 3200m is a worry. | |||
| 8. Wine Dark Sea (23) 56kg151×0 | |||
| Second run back. First-up after two months raced on the pace before fading 11th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 6 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $8. Previously second-up won by 13 len in a Rating 85 at Carlisle on June 24 over 2212m defeating Golden West carrying 64kg at $1.80. Up in trip should suit but needed to see more last time. | |||
| 10. Goodie Two Shoes (19) 55kgx8210 | |||
| Returns from a 52-day let-up. Most recently ran last of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 9 len behind Arabian Crown with 62kg at $34. The run before that ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by a nose in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood on August 1 over 2816m defeating Santorini Star carrying 61kg at $9. Ran very well in this last year, more weight now, place probably best again. | |||
| 11. Juja Kibo (14) 55kgx3211 | |||
| Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 0.5 len in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m defeating Kings Valley carrying 58kg at $7.50. Before that ran on from midfield and won by 1.75 len in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m in soft going defeating Aethelwulf with 56.5kg at $5.50. Flying off moderate tempos, if he can convert that to two miles he’ll run well. | |||
| 12. Hopewell Rock (15) 54.5kg3612x | |||
| Back from a spell. Finished off last preparation second of 22 at York Ebor Handicap August 22 over 2816m, a head behind Daiquiri Bay with 60.5kg at $7.50. Previously first up; third of 8 at Newmarket (Rowley) May 2 over 2414m, 1.75 len behind Daiquiri Bay carrying 61kg at $5.50. Progressive stayer with the right form lines, looks a strong winning chance. | |||
| 13. Onesmoothoperator (13) 54.5kg9×090 | |||
| At the latest run 11th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 9 len behind Point Of Law carrying 57kg at $21. Before that got back early 9th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Pinhole with 58kg at $26. Not going nearly well enough. | |||
| 14. Soul Of Spain (5) 54.5kg68378 | |||
| At the latest run 8th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 53kg at $61. The start before that 7th of 9 in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Juja Kibo with 58.5kg at $7.50. Had some excuses latest but this looks too tough. | |||
| 15. Zahrann (11) 54.5kgx4106 | |||
| Last start 6th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4 len behind Kingswood with 53kg at $7.50. Before that 11th of 13 in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track on October 3 over 2000m, on rain affected going; 18 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 56.5kg at $12. Worked home quite well last time but the 3200m is an unknown. | |||
| 16. So You Are (7) 54kg21111 | |||
| On a four run winning streak. At the latest run favourite; won by 0.8 len in the G3 Bendigo Cup on October 28 over 2400m defeating Berkeley Square carrying 58.5kg at $3.60. Before that favourite; tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 0.9 len in the G3 Atc St Leger Stakes at Randwick on October 17 over 2600m in soft going defeating Tempesti with 57.5kg at $3.30. Other form potentially stronger but he’s flying, not the worst. | |||
| 17. Future History (12) 53.5kgx3249 | |||
| At the latest run 9th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 3.5 len behind Juja Kibo with 57kg at $26. The start before that 4th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2 len behind Pinhole with 57kg at $7. Going along okay but this is too tough. | |||
| 18. James J Braddock (24) 53.5kg136×6 | |||
| Second run back. Comes off a 52-day let-up. First-up after three months 6th of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 4 len behind Arabian Crown carrying 59kg at $13. Previously second-up won by a nose in the G3 Leopardstown Derby Trial on May 10 over 2011m defeating Pierre Bonnard with 59.5kg at $10. Epsom Derby placegetter but form since has been mixed, inclined to risk. | |||
| 19. Kizlyar (20) 53.5kg1x2x0 | |||
| Second-up today. Last run raced on the speed throughout before fading 11th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 4 len behind Juja Kibo with 56kg at $3.80. At only start last preparation 2nd in a small field in the G3 Irish St Leger Trial Stakes at Curragh on August 22 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Queenstown with 61kg at $4.30. Went way too slow at Aus debut, could be a knockout hope up in trip. | |||
| 20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again. | |||
| 21. Strictly Business (4) 53kg2×000 | |||
| Most recently ran last of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 14 len behind Juja Kibo with 55kg at $81. The race before that ran second last of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 10 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $71. Not going nearly well enough. | |||
| 22. Mr Monaco (16) 52.5kgx4013 | |||
| Most recently ran on from midfield; 3rd of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 0.8 len behind Juja Kibo carrying 57.5kg at $16. The start before that raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 1.3 len in a G3 The Bart Cummings at this track on October 3 over 2520m in the wet defeating Litzdeel carrying 54kg at $8. Past two have been good, should run well for wider exotics. | |||
| 23. Zakouma (10) 52kgx6650 | |||
| Most recently ran last of 11 in the G2 Crystal Mile at this track on October 24 over 1600m, 8 len behind Surfin’ Bird with 57.5kg at $26. The run before that 5th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.5 len behind Pinhole carrying 57kg at $7. Ignore last week when sharply back in trip, he was building nicely prior. | |||
| 24. Shockletz (17) 51kg64162 | |||
| At the latest run 2nd of 15 in the G3 Tesio Stakes at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 0.5 len behind Soverato with 58kg at $7.50. Before that 6th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.75 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $6. Past two have been excellent Cup trials and now up in trip with no weight, look out. | |||
| 9. Asterix (6)SCRATCHED: | |||
