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The international challenge is once again a major talking point in the Melbourne Cup 2026, and few overseas raiders have attracted more attention from punters than the Irish-trained Trustyourinstinct.
Already among the shortest-priced runners in the latest Melbourne Cup 2026 odds at Ladbrokes, Joseph O’Brien’s seasoned stayer arrives at Flemington carrying the hopes of international racing fans and plenty of bookmaker respect. A proven performer at staying distances, a Group 2 winner this season, and armed with one of the world’s best jockeys in James McDonald, Trustyourinstinct has all the credentials of a genuine Cup contender.
The question for Cup Day punters is simple: has the market got him right?
Irish Raider Brings Elite Staying Form to Melbourne
While several runners in the 2026 Melbourne Cup field are still trying to answer questions over stamina, Trustyourinstinct has already done his talking on the track.
The seven-year-old son of Churchill has put together the strongest staying campaign of his career in Europe, culminating in a standout victory in the prestigious Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2816m during the Irish summer.
That performance was particularly eye-catching.
Settling near the rear of the field, Trustyourinstinct unleashed a devastating finishing sprint to storm over the top of his rivals carrying a hefty 62kg. It was the type of staying performance that immediately catches the eye of Melbourne Cup judges.
Both of Joseph O’Brien’s previous Melbourne Cup winners, Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020), won the Curragh Cup in the same year as their Flemington success.
History lovers will find that statistic hard to ignore.
Not only does the Curragh Cup have a proven connection to Melbourne Cup success, but Trustyourinstinct arrives following a preparation that closely resembles the path taken by some of O’Brien’s previous Cup heroes.
Joseph O’Brien Knows How to Win Melbourne Cups
Whenever Joseph O’Brien sends a horse to Australia, punters pay attention.
The Irish trainer has built an outstanding Melbourne Cup record despite his relatively young age, preparing both Rekindling and Twilight Payment to victory in Australia’s most famous race.
That proven Cups pedigree adds significant confidence to Trustyourinstinct’s claims.
Unlike some international runners arriving with unknown form, the O’Brien stable has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to identify the right horse, manage the long trip to Australia, and have them peaking on the first Tuesday in November.
Trustyourinstinct appears to fit that successful formula perfectly.
He is seasoned enough to handle the occasion, lightly weighted by European standards, and comes into the race off the back of proven Group-class staying form.
Irish St Leger Form Holds Up Strongly
Following his Curragh Cup success, Trustyourinstinct stepped into elite company in the Group 1 Irish St Leger.
While he finished fourth, the performance was full of merit.
Facing some of Europe’s premier stayers, including the highly regarded Scandinavia, he was far from disgraced and again demonstrated his ability to sustain a strong finishing effort over an extended distance.
For Melbourne Cup punters, that form line is arguably more important than the finishing position itself.
The race confirmed he belongs at Group 1 level and can mix it with world-class staying talent.
That is exactly the calibre of horse required to win a modern Melbourne Cup.
James McDonald Factor Impossible to Ignore
If Trustyourinstinct wasn’t attracting enough attention already, the booking of the mighty J-Mac has only strengthened his support in Melbourne Cup 2026 betting.
McDonald needs little introduction to Australian racing fans.
The champion rider famously guided Verry Elleegant to Melbourne Cup glory and has established himself as one of the most accomplished jockeys in world racing.
His presence aboard Trustyourinstinct is a significant positive.
Not only is he renowned for producing perfectly timed runs from off the speed, but his ability to navigate difficult barrier draws could prove crucial after the gelding came up with gate 18.
Many punters initially viewed the barrier as a setback.
Others see opportunity.
After all, barrier 18 was once viewed as a curse until Verry Elleegant rewrote the script in 2021 under none other than James McDonald.
Cup racing often produces a few quirky pieces of omen form, and supporters of Trustyourinstinct will certainly enjoy that one.
Can He Overcome the Wide Draw?
Every Melbourne Cup contender has a question mark somewhere.
For Trustyourinstinct, it’s the starting position.
Barrier 18 is far from ideal, particularly for a horse expected to settle towards the rear before launching late.
The positive is that his racing style may help offset the disadvantage.
Unlike horses that require a prominent position early, Trustyourinstinct generally relaxes well, conserves energy, and produces his best work over the final stages.
Provided McDonald can find cover and avoid covering excessive ground, the draw may prove less damaging than first appears.
A Genuine Two-Miler in a Field Full of Hopefuls
One of the most attractive aspects of Trustyourinstinct’s profile is that there is very little guesswork involved regarding the distance.
Many runners enter the Melbourne Cup with strong 2400m or 2500m form and the hope they can stretch it to 3200m.
Trustyourinstinct already owns winning form over marathon journeys and has repeatedly shown his ability to sustain a genuine staying test.
That proven stamina is an enormous asset.
His Curragh Cup victory, combined with his competitive Irish St Leger effort, suggests the famous Flemington two miles will hold no fears.
If anything, an even tempo over 3200m could bring his strengths further into play.
So, Should Punters Trust Trustyourinstinct?
The more you study his credentials, the harder he becomes to dismiss.
He boasts elite international staying form. He is trained by a proven Melbourne Cup-winning conditioner. He has already excelled over similar distances. He gets the services of James McDonald. And he profiles as one of the strongest European contenders to travel to Australia this spring.
The negatives are relatively minor.
The wide barrier presents a challenge, and there is always some uncertainty surrounding international horses making their Australian debut. But on exposed form, few runners arrive with a stronger résumé.
If the track remains in the Good range and McDonald can produce him at the right time, Trustyourinstinct looks capable of making a serious impact in the closing stages.
2026 Melbourne Cup Horse Profile: No. 2 Trustyourinstinct (IRE)
| 2. Trustyourinstinct (18) 57kg21214 | |||
| Form hard to fault. Comes off a 51 day let-up. Last start 4th of 7 in the G1 Irish St Leger Stakes at Curragh on September 13 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Scandinavia carrying 61.5kg at $7.50. Before that won by 0.8 len in the G2 Curragh Cup on July 19 over 2816m defeating Happy Pharoah carrying 62kg at $7.50. Brings a lovely profile and strong international form, and the man in the saddle goes okay too. | |||
- Breeding: Churchill (IRE) x Gussy Goose (IRE)
- Age/Sex: 7YO Chestnut Gelding
- Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
- Jockey: James McDonald
- Weight: 57kg
- Barrier: 18
- Career Record: 25:9-6-3
- Prizemoney: $725,994
- Record at Flemington: Unraced
- Record at 3200m: 2:1-0-0
- Last Start: Fourth in the Group 1 Irish St Leger (2816m)
Why Trustyourinstinct Is a Leading Melbourne Cup Chance
- Group 2 Curragh Cup winner in outstanding fashion.
- Proven staying credentials over marathon distances.
- Strong Group 1 Irish St Leger form.
- Trained by dual Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Joseph O’Brien.
- Gets champion jockey James McDonald aboard.
- Possesses a devastating finishing burst when ridden patiently.
- Profiles as one of the strongest international runners in the race.
- Handles firm and Good ground conditions.
Potential Concerns
- Drawn awkwardly in barrier 18.
- First start in Australia.
- Carries 57kg against some lightly weighted rivals.
- Requires everything to fall into place from near the rear of the field.
Trustyourinstinct – Last 5 Starts
| Date | Track | Race | Distance | Result | Margin | Jockey | Going |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | Curragh | Irish St Leger (G1) | 2816m | 4th | 4.5L | Declan McDonogh | Good (Irish rating) |
| 19 Jul 2026 | Curragh | Curragh Cup (G2) | 2816m | 1st | 0.8L | Declan McDonogh | Good to Firm (Irish rating) |
| 28 Jun 2026 | Curragh | International Stakes (G3) | 2011m | 2nd | 0.8L | Joseph Sheridan | Good (Irish rating) |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Gowran Park | Conditions race | 1810m | 1st | 1.5L | Dylan Browne McMonagle | Yielding (Irish rating) |
| 23 May 2026 | Curragh | Orby Stakes (Listed) | 2414m | 2nd | 6.0L | Declan McDonogh | Good (Irish rating) |
Final Verdict on the Best Fancied Melbourne Cup 2026 International
Trustyourinstinct is not arriving at Flemington on reputation alone. His European form stacks up, his staying credentials are proven, and his trainer knows exactly what is required to win a Melbourne Cup.
The barrier has prevented him from challenging for outright favouritism in the Melbourne Cup 2026 betting markets, but it has also left punters with potentially attractive value.
If James McDonald can weave his magic and the Irish visitor reproduces his Curragh Cup best, Trustyourinstinct has every right to be considered among the premier Melbourne Cup 2026 contenders.
Verdict: Leading winning chance – a must-have runner in exotics and a genuine each-way threat to the favourite.
Melbourne Cup 2026 Odds
| 1. Sons And Lovers (3) 57.5kg44512 | |||
| Comes here off a 52-day let-up. Last start 2nd of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 2.25 len behind Arabian Crown with 63.5kg at $15. The race before that won by a head in the G2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil at Longchamp on July 14 over 2800m defeating Parachutiste carrying 59kg at $2.60. Top weight but brings classy international form and should go very well. | |||
| 2. Trustyourinstinct (18) 57kg21214 | |||
| Form hard to fault. Comes off a 51 day let-up. Last start 4th of 7 in the G1 Irish St Leger Stakes at Curragh on September 13 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Scandinavia carrying 61.5kg at $7.50. Before that won by 0.8 len in the G2 Curragh Cup on July 19 over 2816m defeating Happy Pharoah carrying 62kg at $7.50. Brings a lovely profile and strong international form, and the man in the saddle goes okay too. | |||
| 3. Knight’s Choice (2) 56.5kgx0930 | |||
| Most recently eased back early on 14th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 10 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $31. Before that ran on from midfield; 3rd of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, head behind Pinhole with 56kg at $7. Shock winner of 2024 Cup with more weight this time, hard to see him repeating the dose. | |||
| 4. Middle Earth (1) 56.5kg87898 | |||
| At the latest run eased back early on 8th of 12 in the G1 Ws Cox Plate at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 7 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 59kg at $71. The race before that 9th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $61. Ticking along as well as he was last year and has claims. | |||
| 5. Vauban (22) 56.5kg133×9 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after five months 9th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 6 len behind Point Of Law carrying 60.5kg at $19. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 in the G1 He Tancred Stakes at Rosehill on March 28 over 2400m, slow going 5 len behind Aeliana carrying 59kg at $7. Fourth crack at the Cup, only second up here and 3200m remains a worry. | |||
| 6. Enfjaar (8) 56kg381×3 | |||
| Second run back. First-up after three months held ground to the line 3rd of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 1.0 len behind Kingswood carrying 54.5kg at $12. Previously second-up 8th of 16 in the LR Wolferton Stakes at Ascot on June 16 over 2011m, 5 len behind Map Of Stars carrying 59.5kg at $13. Very game first up, not sure he wants 3200m though. | |||
| 7. Royal Supremacy (21) 56kg1×910 | |||
| Last start 15th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 17 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $13. The run before that won by 0.8 len in the G3 Jra Cup at Caulfield on September 27 over 2000m defeating Future History with 60kg at $4.80. Had some excuses last time but 3200m is a worry. | |||
| 8. Wine Dark Sea (23) 56kg151×0 | |||
| Second run back. First-up after two months raced on the pace before fading 11th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 6 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $8. Previously second-up won by 13 len in a Rating 85 at Carlisle on June 24 over 2212m defeating Golden West carrying 64kg at $1.80. Up in trip should suit but needed to see more last time. | |||
| 9. Asterix (6) 55kgx5300 | |||
| Last start eased back early on 12th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 7 len behind Kingswood with 53.5kg at $61. Before that ran last of 13 in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track on October 3 over 2000m, in the wet; 43 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 56.5kg at $71. Has a lot to find on past couple. | |||
| 10. Goodie Two Shoes (19) 55kgx8210 | |||
| Returns from a 52-day let-up. Most recently ran last of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 9 len behind Arabian Crown with 62kg at $34. The run before that ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by a nose in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood on August 1 over 2816m defeating Santorini Star carrying 61kg at $9. Ran very well in this last year, more weight now, place probably best again. | |||
| 11. Juja Kibo (14) 55kgx3211 | |||
| Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 0.5 len in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m defeating Kings Valley carrying 58kg at $7.50. Before that ran on from midfield and won by 1.75 len in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m in soft going defeating Aethelwulf with 56.5kg at $5.50. Flying off moderate tempos, if he can convert that to two miles he’ll run well. | |||
| 12. Hopewell Rock (15) 54.5kg3612x | |||
| Back from a spell. Finished off last preparation second of 22 at York Ebor Handicap August 22 over 2816m, a head behind Daiquiri Bay with 60.5kg at $7.50. Previously first up; third of 8 at Newmarket (Rowley) May 2 over 2414m, 1.75 len behind Daiquiri Bay carrying 61kg at $5.50. Progressive stayer with the right form lines, looks a strong winning chance. | |||
| 13. Onesmoothoperator (13) 54.5kg9×090 | |||
| At the latest run 11th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 9 len behind Point Of Law carrying 57kg at $21. Before that got back early 9th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Pinhole with 58kg at $26. Not going nearly well enough. | |||
| 14. Soul Of Spain (5) 54.5kg68378 | |||
| At the latest run 8th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 53kg at $61. The start before that 7th of 9 in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Juja Kibo with 58.5kg at $7.50. Had some excuses latest but this looks too tough. | |||
| 15. Zahrann (11) 54.5kgx4106 | |||
| Last start 6th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4 len behind Kingswood with 53kg at $7.50. Before that 11th of 13 in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track on October 3 over 2000m, on rain affected going; 18 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 56.5kg at $12. Worked home quite well last time but the 3200m is an unknown. | |||
| 16. So You Are (7) 54kg21111 | |||
| On a four run winning streak. At the latest run favourite; won by 0.8 len in the G3 Bendigo Cup on October 28 over 2400m defeating Berkeley Square carrying 58.5kg at $3.60. Before that favourite; tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 0.9 len in the G3 Atc St Leger Stakes at Randwick on October 17 over 2600m in soft going defeating Tempesti with 57.5kg at $3.30. Other form potentially stronger but he’s flying, not the worst. | |||
| 17. Future History (12) 53.5kgx3249 | |||
| At the latest run 9th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 3.5 len behind Juja Kibo with 57kg at $26. The start before that 4th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2 len behind Pinhole with 57kg at $7. Going along okay but this is too tough. | |||
| 18. James J Braddock (24) 53.5kg136×6 | |||
| Second run back. Comes off a 52-day let-up. First-up after three months 6th of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 4 len behind Arabian Crown carrying 59kg at $13. Previously second-up won by a nose in the G3 Leopardstown Derby Trial on May 10 over 2011m defeating Pierre Bonnard with 59.5kg at $10. Epsom Derby placegetter but form since has been mixed, inclined to risk. | |||
| 19. Kizlyar (20) 53.5kg1x2x0 | |||
| Second-up today. Last run raced on the speed throughout before fading 11th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 4 len behind Juja Kibo with 56kg at $3.80. At only start last preparation 2nd in a small field in the G3 Irish St Leger Trial Stakes at Curragh on August 22 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Queenstown with 61kg at $4.30. Went way too slow at Aus debut, could be a knockout hope up in trip. | |||
| 20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again. | |||
| 21. Strictly Business (4) 53kg2×000 | |||
| Most recently ran last of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 14 len behind Juja Kibo with 55kg at $81. The race before that ran second last of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 10 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $71. Not going nearly well enough. | |||
| 22. Mr Monaco (16) 52.5kgx4013 | |||
| Recent form sound. Most recently ran on from midfield; 3rd of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 0.8 len behind Juja Kibo carrying 57.5kg at $16. The start before that raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 1.3 len in a G3 The Bart Cummings at this track on October 3 over 2520m in the wet defeating Litzdeel carrying 54kg at $8. Past two have been good, should run well for wider exotics. | |||
| 23. Zakouma (10) 52kgx6650 | |||
| Most recently ran last of 11 in the G2 Crystal Mile at this track on October 24 over 1600m, 8 len behind Surfin’ Bird with 57.5kg at $26. The run before that 5th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.5 len behind Pinhole carrying 57kg at $7. Ignore last week when sharply back in trip, he was building nicely prior. | |||
| 24. Shockletz (17) 51kg64162 | |||
| At the latest run 2nd of 15 in the G3 Tesio Stakes at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 0.5 len behind Soverato with 58kg at $7.50. Before that 6th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.75 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $6. Past two have been excellent Cup trials and now up in trip with no weight, look out. | |||
