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The Cup favourite hasn’t saluted since Fiorente gave punters something to cheer about back in 2013, but there is a growing sense that could finally change in the Melbourne Cup 2026 on Tuesday.

Ciaron Maher’s exciting European import Point Of Law has been all the rage in betting on the 166th edition of the ‘race that stops a nation’, rocketing to the top of the Melbourne Cup markets at Ladbrokes following a brilliant Australian debut victory in the Geelong Cup. Lightly raced, beautifully bred, and seemingly still improving, the son of Frankel arrives at Flemington with all the hallmarks of a horse capable of ending the long drought for punters backing the Melbourne Cup 2026 favourite.

The question now is whether he can take the next step and deliver in Australia’s greatest race.

Melbourne Cup Favourite Point Of Law Chasing History

Few horses have created as much excitement heading into a Melbourne Cup after so little racing.

Point Of Law heads into Tuesday’s Group 1 $10 million Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) with just five starts to his name, yet his profile has punters and form analysts equally convinced he is the horse to beat.

The four-year-old entire announced himself as a genuine Melbourne Cup contender when producing a stirring performance in the Group 3 Geelong Cup over 2400m at his first Australian outing. Forced to work throughout after racing outside the speed, he still found another gear in the straight to pull clear and hold off his challengers late.

It was the performance of a horse with plenty left in the tank.

The Geelong Cup has long been recognised as one of the key lead-up races to the Melbourne Cup, producing numerous placegetters and winners through the years. Point Of Law’s victory immediately saw him firm into favouritism and solidify his standing atop the latest Melbourne Cup odds.

Maher Import Fits the Proven Melbourne Cup Formula

Australian racing fans have become familiar with the blueprint for Melbourne Cup success.

Young European stayers arriving with untapped upside have enjoyed tremendous success in recent years, with horses like Rekindling, Cross Counter, and others proving difficult for local handicappers to assess.

Point Of Law looks cut from the same cloth.

Purchased after showcasing his talent in Europe, the former northern hemisphere three-year-old arrived with strong credentials. He won the valuable Bahrain Trophy over 2615m and performed with credit when contesting elite staying races including Royal Ascot.

His new trainer, the maestro Ciaron Maher, has developed an outstanding reputation for targeting suitable international stayers and preparing them for Australian conditions. The Ballarat horseman appears to have another exciting Cups prospect on his hands.

Perhaps most appealing for punters is the horse’s obvious upside.

Unlike many of his Melbourne Cup rivals whose ratings and ability appear fully exposed, Point Of Law still looks capable of substantial improvement.

Frankel Bloodlines Suggest the 3200m Will Suit

For many punters assessing the Melbourne Cup 2026 odds, the biggest question surrounding Point Of Law is straightforward:

Can he run a strong 3200 metres?

The answer appears encouraging.

Point Of Law boasts a world-class pedigree. He is by legendary sire Frankel out of Portfolio, a daughter of Japanese staying powerhouse Deep Impact. Those bloodlines strongly suggest stamina will not be an issue as he tackles the Melbourne Cup distance for the first time.

His performances to date only reinforce that view.

The manner in which he attacked the line in Geelong indicated a horse searching for further ground, while his European form over extended trips also points towards the famous Flemington two miles being within reach.

There are no guarantees in a Melbourne Cup, but from a breeding perspective it is difficult to find a horse in the field better equipped for the challenge.

Ethan Brown Gets the Big Opportunity

Victorian jockey Ethan Brown retains the ride after partnering Point Of Law in his impressive Geelong Cup success.

Brown continues to establish himself among Australia’s elite riders and now receives a golden opportunity to secure his first Melbourne Cup victory.

The partnership already appears a natural fit.

Brown settled Point Of Law perfectly in Geelong, allowing the horse to build gradually through his gears before unleashing his finishing burst at the top of the straight.

From barrier nine on Tuesday, he should once again enjoy a comfortable run just behind the speed before asking the favourite to produce his trademark turn of foot.

With only 53kg on his back, Point Of Law will meet many of his key rivals favourably at the weights.

So, Will Point Of Law Win the 2026 Melbourne Cup?

There is plenty to like.

He is progressive. He is lightly weighted. He has drawn well. He has already proven himself in Australia. His pedigree screams stayer and he is trained by one of the country’s premier conditioners.

Of course, there are genuine queries.

He remains the least experienced horse among the leading contenders. He has never raced at Flemington. He has never tackled 3200m. And history tells us favourites do not have an easy time in Melbourne Cup betting.

Still, if there is one runner capable of bucking that trend in 2026, it may well be Point Of Law.

The further he goes, the better he looks.

And should he salute on the first Tuesday in November, he would become one of the most lightly raced Melbourne Cup winners in history while giving Cup Day punters the favourite they’ve been waiting more than a decade to cheer home.

2026 Melbourne Cup Horse Profile: No. 9 Point Of Law

• Breeding: Frankel (GB) x Portfolio (JPN)
• Age/Sex: 4YO Bay Entire
• Trainer: Ciaron Maher
• Jockey: Ethan Brown
• Weight: 53kg
• Barrier: 9
• Career Record: 5:3-1-0
• Prizemoney: $578,200
• Record at Flemington: Unraced
• Record at 3200m: Unraced
• Last Start: 1st Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)

Geelong Cup | Point Of Law

The international visitors run 1-2-3 in the Geelong Cup! At only his 5th career start, Point Of Law takes out the Group 3 feature! ?? @cmaherracing

? Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy pic.twitter.com/BqedLxfl7O

— Racing.com (@Racing) October 21, 2026

Why Point Of Law Is the Horse to Beat

• Dominant Geelong Cup winner on Australian debut.
• Carries a very manageable 53kg.
• Proven international staying form.
• Outstanding Frankel and Deep Impact bloodlines.
• Drawn ideally in barrier nine.
• Still possesses significant improvement and upside.
• Trained by Cups specialist Ciaron Maher.
• Strong closing sectionals and powerful turn of foot.

The Risks for Punters

• Only five career starts.
• First attempt at 3200m.
• No previous Flemington experience.
• Faces the pressure that comes with favouritism.
• Melbourne Cup favourites traditionally have a poor strike-rate.

Point Of Law: Last 5 Starts

Date	Track	Race	Distance	Result	Margin	Jockey	Going
21 Oct 2026	Geelong	Geelong Cup (G3)	2400m	1st	0.5L	Ethan Brown	Good 4
9 Jul 2026	Newmarket	Bahrain Trophy (G3)	2615m	1st	0.5L	James Doyle	Good to Firm (Good in places), GB rating
17 Jun 2026	Ascot	Queen’s Vase (G2)	2846m	4th	1.6L	James Doyle	Good to Firm, GB rating
15 May 2026	Newbury	Maiden	2011m	1st	1.3L	Benoit de la Sayette	Good, GB rating
11 Apr 2026	Yarmouth	Novice	2011m	2nd	0.5L	Robert Havlin	Good, GB rating

Final Verdict on the Melbourne Cup 2026 Favourite

Point Of Law brings perhaps the most exciting profile into the 2026 Melbourne Cup field. His Geelong Cup victory was the performance that launched him into favouritism , and there is every indication the best is still to come.

While the two-mile journey remains the final hurdle, he looks perfectly placed to give Ciaron Maher another Melbourne Cup triumph and finally reward those backing the market elect.

Verdict: Top 3 contender – deserving favourite and the horse to beat.