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The Cup favourite hasn’t saluted since Fiorente gave punters something to cheer about back in 2013, but there is a growing sense that could finally change in the Melbourne Cup 2026 on Tuesday.
Ciaron Maher’s exciting European import Point Of Law has been all the rage in betting on the 166th edition of the ‘race that stops a nation’, rocketing to the top of the Melbourne Cup markets at Ladbrokes following a brilliant Australian debut victory in the Geelong Cup. Lightly raced, beautifully bred, and seemingly still improving, the son of Frankel arrives at Flemington with all the hallmarks of a horse capable of ending the long drought for punters backing the Melbourne Cup 2026 favourite.
The question now is whether he can take the next step and deliver in Australia’s greatest race.
Melbourne Cup Favourite Point Of Law Chasing History
Few horses have created as much excitement heading into a Melbourne Cup after so little racing.
Point Of Law heads into Tuesday’s Group 1 $10 million Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) with just five starts to his name, yet his profile has punters and form analysts equally convinced he is the horse to beat.
The four-year-old entire announced himself as a genuine Melbourne Cup contender when producing a stirring performance in the Group 3 Geelong Cup over 2400m at his first Australian outing. Forced to work throughout after racing outside the speed, he still found another gear in the straight to pull clear and hold off his challengers late.
It was the performance of a horse with plenty left in the tank.
The Geelong Cup has long been recognised as one of the key lead-up races to the Melbourne Cup, producing numerous placegetters and winners through the years. Point Of Law’s victory immediately saw him firm into favouritism and solidify his standing atop the latest Melbourne Cup odds.
Maher Import Fits the Proven Melbourne Cup Formula
Australian racing fans have become familiar with the blueprint for Melbourne Cup success.
Young European stayers arriving with untapped upside have enjoyed tremendous success in recent years, with horses like Rekindling, Cross Counter, and others proving difficult for local handicappers to assess.
Point Of Law looks cut from the same cloth.
Purchased after showcasing his talent in Europe, the former northern hemisphere three-year-old arrived with strong credentials. He won the valuable Bahrain Trophy over 2615m and performed with credit when contesting elite staying races including Royal Ascot.
His new trainer, the maestro Ciaron Maher, has developed an outstanding reputation for targeting suitable international stayers and preparing them for Australian conditions. The Ballarat horseman appears to have another exciting Cups prospect on his hands.
Perhaps most appealing for punters is the horse’s obvious upside.
Unlike many of his Melbourne Cup rivals whose ratings and ability appear fully exposed, Point Of Law still looks capable of substantial improvement.
Frankel Bloodlines Suggest the 3200m Will Suit
For many punters assessing the Melbourne Cup 2026 odds, the biggest question surrounding Point Of Law is straightforward:
Can he run a strong 3200 metres?
The answer appears encouraging.
Point Of Law boasts a world-class pedigree. He is by legendary sire Frankel out of Portfolio, a daughter of Japanese staying powerhouse Deep Impact. Those bloodlines strongly suggest stamina will not be an issue as he tackles the Melbourne Cup distance for the first time.
His performances to date only reinforce that view.
The manner in which he attacked the line in Geelong indicated a horse searching for further ground, while his European form over extended trips also points towards the famous Flemington two miles being within reach.
There are no guarantees in a Melbourne Cup, but from a breeding perspective it is difficult to find a horse in the field better equipped for the challenge.
Ethan Brown Gets the Big Opportunity
Victorian jockey Ethan Brown retains the ride after partnering Point Of Law in his impressive Geelong Cup success.
Brown continues to establish himself among Australia’s elite riders and now receives a golden opportunity to secure his first Melbourne Cup victory.
The partnership already appears a natural fit.
Brown settled Point Of Law perfectly in Geelong, allowing the horse to build gradually through his gears before unleashing his finishing burst at the top of the straight.
From barrier nine on Tuesday, he should once again enjoy a comfortable run just behind the speed before asking the favourite to produce his trademark turn of foot.
With only 53kg on his back, Point Of Law will meet many of his key rivals favourably at the weights.
So, Will Point Of Law Win the 2026 Melbourne Cup?
There is plenty to like.
He is progressive. He is lightly weighted. He has drawn well. He has already proven himself in Australia. His pedigree screams stayer and he is trained by one of the country’s premier conditioners.
Of course, there are genuine queries.
He remains the least experienced horse among the leading contenders. He has never raced at Flemington. He has never tackled 3200m. And history tells us favourites do not have an easy time in Melbourne Cup betting.
Still, if there is one runner capable of bucking that trend in 2026, it may well be Point Of Law.
The further he goes, the better he looks.
And should he salute on the first Tuesday in November, he would become one of the most lightly raced Melbourne Cup winners in history while giving Cup Day punters the favourite they’ve been waiting more than a decade to cheer home.
2026 Melbourne Cup Horse Profile: No. 9 Point Of Law
| 20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again. | |||
- Breeding: Frankel (GB) x Portfolio (JPN)
- Age/Sex: 4YO Bay Entire
- Trainer: Ciaron Maher
- Jockey: Ethan Brown
- Weight: 53kg
- Barrier: 9
- Career Record: 5:3-1-0
- Prizemoney: $578,200
- Record at Flemington: Unraced
- Record at 3200m: Unraced
- Last Start: 1st Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)
Why Point Of Law Is the Horse to Beat
- Dominant Geelong Cup winner on Australian debut.
- Carries a very manageable 53kg.
- Proven international staying form.
- Outstanding Frankel and Deep Impact bloodlines.
- Drawn ideally in barrier nine.
- Still possesses significant improvement and upside.
- Trained by Cups specialist Ciaron Maher.
- Strong closing sectionals and powerful turn of foot.
The Risks for Punters
- Only five career starts.
- First attempt at 3200m.
- No previous Flemington experience.
- Faces the pressure that comes with favouritism.
- Melbourne Cup favourites traditionally have a poor strike-rate.
Point Of Law: Last 5 Starts
| Date | Track | Race | Distance | Result | Margin | Jockey | Going |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | Geelong | Geelong Cup (G3) | 2400m | 1st | 0.5L | Ethan Brown | Good 4 |
| 9 Jul 2026 | Newmarket | Bahrain Trophy (G3) | 2615m | 1st | 0.5L | James Doyle | Good to Firm (Good in places), GB rating |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Ascot | Queen’s Vase (G2) | 2846m | 4th | 1.6L | James Doyle | Good to Firm, GB rating |
| 15 May 2026 | Newbury | Maiden | 2011m | 1st | 1.3L | Benoit de la Sayette | Good, GB rating |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Yarmouth | Novice | 2011m | 2nd | 0.5L | Robert Havlin | Good, GB rating |
Final Verdict on the Melbourne Cup 2026 Favourite
Point Of Law brings perhaps the most exciting profile into the 2026 Melbourne Cup field. His Geelong Cup victory was the performance that launched him into favouritism , and there is every indication the best is still to come.
While the two-mile journey remains the final hurdle, he looks perfectly placed to give Ciaron Maher another Melbourne Cup triumph and finally reward those backing the market elect.
Verdict: Top 3 contender – deserving favourite and the horse to beat.
Melbourne Cup 2026 Odds
| 1. Sons And Lovers (3) 57.5kg44512 | |||
| Comes here off a 52-day let-up. Last start 2nd of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 2.25 len behind Arabian Crown with 63.5kg at $15. The race before that won by a head in the G2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil at Longchamp on July 14 over 2800m defeating Parachutiste carrying 59kg at $2.60. Top weight but brings classy international form and should go very well. | |||
| 2. Trustyourinstinct (18) 57kg21214 | |||
| Comes off a 51 day let-up. Last start 4th of 7 in the G1 Irish St Leger Stakes at Curragh on September 13 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Scandinavia carrying 61.5kg at $7.50. Before that won by 0.8 len in the G2 Curragh Cup on July 19 over 2816m defeating Happy Pharoah carrying 62kg at $7.50. Brings a lovely profile and strong international form, and the man in the saddle goes okay too. | |||
| 3. Knight’s Choice (2) 56.5kgx0930 | |||
| Most recently eased back early on 14th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 10 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $31. Before that ran on from midfield; 3rd of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, head behind Pinhole with 56kg at $7. Shock winner of 2024 Cup with more weight this time, hard to see him repeating the dose. | |||
| 4. Middle Earth (1) 56.5kg87898 | |||
| At the latest run eased back early on 8th of 12 in the G1 Ws Cox Plate at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 7 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 59kg at $71. The race before that 9th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $61. Ticking along as well as he was last year and has claims. | |||
| 5. Vauban (22) 56.5kg133×9 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after five months 9th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 6 len behind Point Of Law carrying 60.5kg at $19. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 in the G1 He Tancred Stakes at Rosehill on March 28 over 2400m, slow going 5 len behind Aeliana carrying 59kg at $7. Fourth crack at the Cup, only second up here and 3200m remains a worry. | |||
| 6. Enfjaar (8) 56kg381×3 | |||
| Second run back. First-up after three months held ground to the line 3rd of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 1.0 len behind Kingswood carrying 54.5kg at $12. Previously second-up 8th of 16 in the LR Wolferton Stakes at Ascot on June 16 over 2011m, 5 len behind Map Of Stars carrying 59.5kg at $13. Very game first up, not sure he wants 3200m though. | |||
| 7. Royal Supremacy (21) 56kg1×910 | |||
| Last start 15th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 17 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $13. The run before that won by 0.8 len in the G3 Jra Cup at Caulfield on September 27 over 2000m defeating Future History with 60kg at $4.80. Had some excuses last time but 3200m is a worry. | |||
| 8. Wine Dark Sea (23) 56kg151×0 | |||
| Second run back. First-up after two months raced on the pace before fading 11th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 6 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $8. Previously second-up won by 13 len in a Rating 85 at Carlisle on June 24 over 2212m defeating Golden West carrying 64kg at $1.80. Up in trip should suit but needed to see more last time. | |||
| 10. Goodie Two Shoes (19) 55kgx8210 | |||
| Returns from a 52-day let-up. Most recently ran last of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 9 len behind Arabian Crown with 62kg at $34. The run before that ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by a nose in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood on August 1 over 2816m defeating Santorini Star carrying 61kg at $9. Ran very well in this last year, more weight now, place probably best again. | |||
| 11. Juja Kibo (14) 55kgx3211 | |||
| Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 0.5 len in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m defeating Kings Valley carrying 58kg at $7.50. Before that ran on from midfield and won by 1.75 len in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m in soft going defeating Aethelwulf with 56.5kg at $5.50. Flying off moderate tempos, if he can convert that to two miles he’ll run well. | |||
| 12. Hopewell Rock (15) 54.5kg3612x | |||
| Back from a spell. Finished off last preparation second of 22 at York Ebor Handicap August 22 over 2816m, a head behind Daiquiri Bay with 60.5kg at $7.50. Previously first up; third of 8 at Newmarket (Rowley) May 2 over 2414m, 1.75 len behind Daiquiri Bay carrying 61kg at $5.50. Progressive stayer with the right form lines, looks a strong winning chance. | |||
| 13. Onesmoothoperator (13) 54.5kg9×090 | |||
| At the latest run 11th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 9 len behind Point Of Law carrying 57kg at $21. Before that got back early 9th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Pinhole with 58kg at $26. Not going nearly well enough. | |||
| 14. Soul Of Spain (5) 54.5kg68378 | |||
| At the latest run 8th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 53kg at $61. The start before that 7th of 9 in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Juja Kibo with 58.5kg at $7.50. Had some excuses latest but this looks too tough. | |||
| 15. Zahrann (11) 54.5kgx4106 | |||
| Last start 6th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4 len behind Kingswood with 53kg at $7.50. Before that 11th of 13 in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track on October 3 over 2000m, on rain affected going; 18 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 56.5kg at $12. Worked home quite well last time but the 3200m is an unknown. | |||
| 16. So You Are (7) 54kg21111 | |||
| On a four run winning streak. At the latest run favourite; won by 0.8 len in the G3 Bendigo Cup on October 28 over 2400m defeating Berkeley Square carrying 58.5kg at $3.60. Before that favourite; tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 0.9 len in the G3 Atc St Leger Stakes at Randwick on October 17 over 2600m in soft going defeating Tempesti with 57.5kg at $3.30. Other form potentially stronger but he’s flying, not the worst. | |||
| 17. Future History (12) 53.5kgx3249 | |||
| At the latest run 9th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 3.5 len behind Juja Kibo with 57kg at $26. The start before that 4th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2 len behind Pinhole with 57kg at $7. Going along okay but this is too tough. | |||
| 18. James J Braddock (24) 53.5kg136×6 | |||
| Second run back. Comes off a 52-day let-up. First-up after three months 6th of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 4 len behind Arabian Crown carrying 59kg at $13. Previously second-up won by a nose in the G3 Leopardstown Derby Trial on May 10 over 2011m defeating Pierre Bonnard with 59.5kg at $10. Epsom Derby placegetter but form since has been mixed, inclined to risk. | |||
| 19. Kizlyar (20) 53.5kg1x2x0 | |||
| Second-up today. Last run raced on the speed throughout before fading 11th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 4 len behind Juja Kibo with 56kg at $3.80. At only start last preparation 2nd in a small field in the G3 Irish St Leger Trial Stakes at Curragh on August 22 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Queenstown with 61kg at $4.30. Went way too slow at Aus debut, could be a knockout hope up in trip. | |||
| 20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again. | |||
| 21. Strictly Business (4) 53kg2×000 | |||
| Most recently ran last of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 14 len behind Juja Kibo with 55kg at $81. The race before that ran second last of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 10 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $71. Not going nearly well enough. | |||
| 22. Mr Monaco (16) 52.5kgx4013 | |||
| Most recently ran on from midfield; 3rd of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 0.8 len behind Juja Kibo carrying 57.5kg at $16. The start before that raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 1.3 len in a G3 The Bart Cummings at this track on October 3 over 2520m in the wet defeating Litzdeel carrying 54kg at $8. Past two have been good, should run well for wider exotics. | |||
| 23. Zakouma (10) 52kgx6650 | |||
| Most recently ran last of 11 in the G2 Crystal Mile at this track on October 24 over 1600m, 8 len behind Surfin’ Bird with 57.5kg at $26. The run before that 5th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.5 len behind Pinhole carrying 57kg at $7. Ignore last week when sharply back in trip, he was building nicely prior. | |||
| 24. Shockletz (17) 51kg64162 | |||
| At the latest run 2nd of 15 in the G3 Tesio Stakes at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 0.5 len behind Soverato with 58kg at $7.50. Before that 6th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.75 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $6. Past two have been excellent Cup trials and now up in trip with no weight, look out. | |||
| 9. Asterix (6)SCRATCHED: | |||
