The Ben, Will & JD Hayes-trained Cox...
Day 1 of The Championships is set to run in the wet at Royal Randwick on Saturday headlined by the Doncaster Mile 2022 and below we have our insider tips and best bets for the $3 million classic.
Set to run as Randwick Race 9 at 5:15pm (AEDT) this year’s $3 million Group 1 The Star Doncaster Mile (1600m) features a capacity field and with a Heavy (10) track we’re looking towards those mud-larks.
Doncaster favourite at $3.90 and firming is Richard & Michael Freedman’s airborne mare Forbidden Love.
She was beaten first-up with excuses behind Overpass in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes (1200m) back in January and has won all four subsequent starts in impressive fashion.
Can she keep the winning streak going with conditions to suit again on Saturday?
The danger according to the bookies at current Doncaster Mile odds of $5 is I’m Thunderstruck for Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr.
He had Forbidden Love’s measure when these two ran against each back in October’s $7.5 million Golden Eagle (1500m), I’m Thunderstruck winning the lucrative four-year-olds’ feature while the mare finished 10th.
That was on a Good (3) however and on a wet track, Forbidden Love chasing a third straight Group 1 victory looks a good bet to turn the tables on Shocking four-year-old I’m Thunderstruck who returns to Sydney fourth-up off a trio of runs south of the border.
So, will the top two in the markets battle it out or is there an upset pending in this year’s Doncaster Mile with plenty of value to be had with the rest of the field found at $10 and over?
To Win: #16 Forbidden Love ($3.90 at time of publish) – BET NOW
Really hard to bet against this mare who is the richest vein of form and continues to rise to the occasions thriving on these mud Sydney tracks. It’s a Heavy (10) again for the Doncaster and she will be absolutely swimming in the conditions where plenty of others might struggle. She comes off three really strong wins including a 3.22 length win on a Heavy (10) here over 1400m in the Guy Walter with 58kg. Back-to-back Group 1 victories after that with 57kg at WFA in the Canterbury and George Ryder. She is so well-weighted here coming back to just 50kg! The only question is the big field, she only beat eight rivals her latest two and there could be a bit of a scrimmage here, but if she gets a clear run, she’ll be very hard to beat late. BACK DON’T SACK.
The Danger: #20 Converge ($10 at time of publish) – BET NOW
If you want to talk about those well-weighted, Converge has to be considered. This gun three-year-old from the Waterhouse/Bott stable gets in on only 49.5kg. A son of Frankel, he’s got a strong record at the track (4:2-0-2) including his Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) win two back over the mile when beating home Anamoe. That superstar turned the tables in a big way in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) last time out, Converge beaten over six lengths second. Back to 1600m, dropping 7.5kg and no Anamoe in sight? Surely he’s a genuine chance also proven in the wet. EACH WAY.
Best Roughie: #17 Just Folk ($19 at time of publish) – BET NOW
If you’re not on the best three in betting there is huge value to be had in this year’s Doncaster. Of the longer-priced chances, Just Folk is ticking quite a few boxes at a nice price. The Josh Julius-trained five-year-old was very good in easier company last start coming from a mid-field position to defeat Ellsberg in Rosehill’s Group 2 Ajax Stakes (1500m) on a Heavy (9). He trialled well at Warwick Farm late last week behind Eduardo and also carries only 50kg. This is obviously tougher, but he is three-from-three on Heavy going and can surprise a few of these. PLACE CHANCE.
Ready to lock in your Doncaster Mile best bets at the right price? Click here for the latest markets, courtesy of Ladbrokes.com.au.
*All odds quoted are provided by Ladbrokes.com.au, correct at time of print and subject to change.
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