Phillip Stokes’ Sir John Monash Stakes winning...
History will be made on Tuesday no matter what horse is first past the post in this year’s edition of the iconic two-mile handicap, but what horses are we backing and sacking in our 2021 Melbourne Cup tips? Read on for our insider Melbourne Cup best bets.
The field is set and the barriers have been drawn for this year’s Group 1 $8 million Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m).
The only thing left to do is back the Melbourne Cup winner!
The Favourite: #2 Incentivise ($2.50 at time of publish) – BET NOW
This horse is something special. He put the writing on the wall with the 12-length romp home in Brisbane’s Group 3 Tatt’s Cup in the winter and proved that was no fluke this prep winning three straight Group 1 races. He has been improving each run and was simply outstanding in the Caulfield Cup producing a bullish 3.5 length win from barrier 18. Brett Prebble is going just as good as this Peter Moody-trained star and the duo will need to produce a similar effort after drawing barrier 16. Moody knows what it feels like to be in the history books (Black Caviar!) and after Tuesday, it looks more than likely that this horse will too. BACK DON’T SACK!
The Danger: #1 Twilight Payment ($12 at time of publish) – BET NOW
COVID and bad luck sees just two internationals make a bid at the ‘Loving Trophy’ this year and one of those is the reigning champion Twilight Payment. True he carries the 58kg top weight and will need to stay out of trouble early from barrier two, but this is far from a vintage edition of the Melbourne Cup. He has his third start in the event so is well-accustomed to Flemington and his lead-up form in Europe this time in has been excellent. Stays all day and has been carrying some big weights back home for some pretty big efforts. He led all-the-way to win last year and it takes a pretty special stayer to do that in a 24-horse two-mile race. Will Jye McNeil look to do the same this year? He’s from the right ownership team (Lloyd Williams chasing an eighth victory) but needs to make history as the first official nine-year-old Melbourne Cup winner. He’s a danger to do just that. BACK-TO-BACK IF INCENTIVISE FLOPS!
The Each Way Value: #21 Tralee Rose ($16 at time of publish) – BET NOW
The Melbourne Cup history books are definitely against her winning, but nothing says this talented staying mare cannot run a place at a price come Tuesday. Symon Wilde’s five-year-old is the right age and pedigree to produce a huge run, she’s a daughter of Tavistock and they’re flying in the staying domain. Her Flemington record is outstanding (4:2-2-0) and she’s won up to 2800m. Her only two-mile test to date was in the Group 2 Adelaide Cup and she was far from disgraced running fourth at Morphettville with 55.5kg despite jumping odds-on favourite. She gets in on just 51kg on Tuesday and is drawn well in barrier 12. Has not finished out of the money this campaign and won the Geelong Cup as the punters’ pick last time out. Dean Holland stays on and she’s a better chance than her current price suggests. Rain comes? She can handle that too. CAN SURPRISE AT A PRICE!
The Best Roughie: #12 Persan ($34 at time of publish) – BET NOW
Take out Incentivise and this is by far one of the weakest….we mean open!….Melbourne Cup fields in a long time. Enormous value to be had if you don’t think the favourite will win. Persan at 25/1 is one of those longer-priced chances that could catch a few of these napping. The record in the Victorian staying races of the Maher/Eustace stable is well documented and this horse has a good strike-rate at HQ (10:4-1-1). Fourth-up and fit, he was eye-catching at the same odds when third to Incentivise in the Caulfield Cup. Carried 53kg there and is in on the same weight for the rematch over further. Luke Currie rides from a favourable barrier 11 draw, the second most successful gate in recent history. He ran 2.4 lengths back fifth in the race last year and seems a forgotten threat 12 months on going just as well. EACH WAY ALL THE WAY!
Fancy our Melbourne Cup tips and want to lock them in at the right price? Head to Ladbrokes.com.au now.
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